Chicken Littles

[jazz]

ok chickies, this guy has the govt models on his site compared with the actuals coming in now.

In case any of you are math deficient, the models used to shut down the economy are coming in with hospitalizations 2-5 fold higher than the actuals.

More than 100,000 americans were supposed to be hospitalized by now, only 30,000 currently are. The curve is going to be less than half as high and half as long as predicted and its got nothing to do with social distancing. Another blown forecast by our egghead modellers. They must have moved the climate change folks on to this.

https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1245798197533896704

Sorry if you don't like the message, prove it wrong if you can. Funny how a little bit of real data can destroy a narrative but we have seen that before.

[sawfly1]

Because it is working , esp. In sask.
That is what we want, I do not have
It . Have not left the farm.
You want us to fill the Hospitals.
Make it unmanageable.
Kill it first, starve it for victims.
Then when we have a battle plan and
Testing , we will all be back to work

[biglentil]

Not sure what planet you live on Jazz. Your flu is worse bs was a terrible fail but you wont give up. That type of thinking is what got us into this mess. Even with the protocol in place cases in Canada are doubling every 7 days, 15531 confirmed cases in Canada as of today. Without everyone wearing masks the model will likely continue expect 31000 in a week, 62000 in 14 days, 124000 21 days, 248000 in 28 days, 596000 in 35 days, 1.2m in 42 days, 2.4m in 49 days, 4.8m in 56 days, 9.6m in 62days... Around then we will hit an inflection point in which the rest of the population will take longer to infect. Why don't you look at my models posted here over a month ago damn near bang on. Doesn't take a rocket surgeon.

[GDR]

ok chickies, this guy has the govt models on his site compared with the actuals coming in now.

In case any of you are math deficient, the models used to shut down the economy are coming in with hospitalizations 2-5 fold higher than the actuals.

More than 100,000 americans were supposed to be hospitalized by now, only 30,000 currently are. The curve is going to be less than half as high and half as long as predicted and its got nothing to do with social distancing. Another blown forecast by our egghead modellers. They must have moved the climate change folks on to this.

https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1245798197533896704

Sorry if you don't like the message, prove it wrong if you can. Funny how a little bit of real data can destroy a narrative but we have seen that before.

Dr Jazz, why you fight the reality that the rest of the world can see is beyond me??

[farmaholic]

Screw the inatimate economy, I would rather err on the side of caution and have the people in my life I'm closest to be here for as long as possible. I refuse to put a price on life.

Anyone with high risk friends and relatives who are poor candidates for recovery from CV-19 should understand this.

[mustardman]

Dr Jazz, why you fight the reality that the rest of the world can see is beyond me??

Jazz sounds like a fellow who called into Gormley on Friday. He went On and On about how this was no worse than ordinary flu..... Gormley did politely tell him no it wasn’t. Way more polite than I would have done. Maybe it was you jazz ?

Couldn’t believe that this many weeks In to this and some people haven’t heard the message

[fjlip]

"Without everyone wearing masks the model will likely continue"

You all know that MAX 95% is stopped by a surgical mask worn properly. 5% will still get you. Any other type/cloth is meant to protect others from YOU if you have the virus. They do way less % than a N95, some zippo. And consensus is that the wetter/more moist they get the less effective. And if you have EYES, guess what? Droplets of exhale with virus will get in that way. Never seen an unvented set of googles. Face Shield, well shit can swirl around that into your eyes. That's how we get ANY virus/bacteria, nose and eyes, DON"T TOUCHA DA FACE!

Over thinking might get you paranoid, best STFAWAY from every one! 6' apart outside is fine, visit talk for FS! Going to see folks through a window tomorrow, poor very senior couple going bonkers not seeing any kids/grandkids for 3 weeks!

Admit NOTHING is 100%, maybe a head in a plastic bag with wicked filters and pressurized air?

Try your best but don't scare the shit out of everyone. Especially those RISKING daily working, providing YOU with essential/ important stuff everyday. Not everyone can hide out on the farm.

[wd9]

No one can prove you're wrong. It's too late.

Only 30,000.

Grandmothers, Mothers, University graduates, musicians, engineers, fathers, grand fathers, brothers, sisters.

Spouses. Helpless people in seniors centers, locked up and dying alone, their siblings heartbroken and alone as well.

Doctors, nurses, RT's, ICN's, EMTs, working endlessly to save lives, dying.

I feel bad for you Jazz. No one in your life, or at least no one that matters. You're a victim of careful social engineering with cognitive science. We all are.

https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/california-forum/article193085404.html https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/california-forum/article193085404.html

[sumdumguy]

If I read it right Jazz is saying the modelling is flawed, 100,000 projected and actual 30,000 hospitalized. An emergency nurse in Regina says hospitals are pretty empty and very few are ill enough to need to see a doctor. She says just 1 or 2 in hospital, with compromised body issues. Dr Knut Wittkowski says fastest route to seeing an end is herd immunity. (80% need to contact the virus.) He claims this social distancing only extends the virus’ life. Not saying one way or other but just saying there’s many perspectives and many levels of fear.

[fjlip]

Italy is seeing lower deaths per day, NOT ALL MASKS..

[fjlip]

If I read it right Jazz is saying the modelling is flawed, 100,000 projected and actual 30,000 hospitalized. An emergency nurse in Regina says hospitals are pretty empty and very few are ill enough to need to see a doctor. She says just 1 or 2 in hospital, with compromised body issues. Dr Knut Wittkowski says fastest route to seeing an end is herd immunity. (80% need to contact the virus.) He claims this social distancing only extends the virus’ life. Not saying one way or other but just saying there’s many perspectives and many levels of fear.

Latest report today said 4 in hospitals? Out of 246 positive, some recovered, 14000 tests, still 98.3% negative, what were those sick of if they had Corona symptoms bad enough a Dr. decide to test? Never an answer to that.

[biglentil]

It's known that the amount of virus innoculem load is correlated with the severity of the illness. A light load and your immune system has a much better chance of building a defense rather than a direct cough in the face.

If no one in public is wearing a mask your particle intake is 100%. If you are the only one wearing an N95 mask your particle intake is 5%. If everyone is wearing N95 your particle intake is 5% of 5% or .025%. If everyone is wearing a homemade mask at say 80% effectiveness the total particle intake is only 4% of everyone without. I protect you and you protect me.

[farmaholic]

Why aren't masks optional for frontline workers?

Or, I will still leave the air filters in my tractor this spring knowing they aren't 100% effective.

Those damned delicate lungs eh, bet that virus wouldn't stand a chance in the gastro-intestinal tract.(just a guess on my part)

[farmaholic]

Sask's saving grace is probably our population density, I hate going to Regina, next time I'm wearing a burka. Maybe even double up the face part.

I like sumdum's last post and agree.

[ajl]

Your likely right Jazz, the numbers do not support the hyper levels of paranoia out there but you will have to accept that the damage is already done. If you want to go about your business in full Hazmat gear, knock yourself out. Picking up the pieces is what to focus on now. If your over 50 and out of a job, you are likely researching suicide methods now as you will never hold one again. At least not one with any quality. The economy was already headed down and the Covid just put that in process into overdrive. As another pointed out an economic restart oversight committee for canuckistan would need God himself on it as the situation is hopeless.