More Garbage Models

[flea beetle]

What the hell is wrong with that post? More importantly, waiting to hear Jazz's answer

Nothing is wrong with that post. He just keeps trying to drag me in for my opinion on Trump's handling of Covid. I am staying neutral on that topic.

[flea beetle]

I think "self isolation" and "social distancing" is taking it's toll.

Have a Snickers....

I know I should stay away, but this just rubbed me the wrong way. (obviously)

Oddly enough life hasn't really changed on the farm other than staying in the semi to get handed your paper work, no hand shakes, and facetiming family rather than going to visit. Oh, and parts take a fair bit longer to get.

I will stand down. Sorry to the forum for the hostilities.

[wd9]

Nothing is wrong with that post. He just keeps trying to drag me in for my opinion on Trump's handling of Covid. I am staying neutral on that topic.

Mostly just seeing if Jazz will answer. I know you won't answer.

And for when you are waiting at the elevator, a Science Journal on why and when people call certain actions stupid. Yes actions can be stupid. Like not taking good advice from many doctors who agree. Doesn't mean right away all people are stupid.

Probably stupid of me trying to explain this again since you didn't get after i posted it, twice, Tweety explained it, and here i am posting about it again.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289615001233 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289615001233

[jazz]

ha you guys are just opening your selves for another logic bomb.

Original death projection 2.2m deaths with no mitigation. 200-500k deaths with mitigation plan. Actual deaths to come in under 50k.

So either trump did a great job saving 2m people or the science and the experts are bunk and the economy was destroyed on a lie. Pick your poison.

If you hate trump then disavow the garbage science pumped with MSM hysteria if that makes you feel better.

You know a hundreds of thousands of people die every yr from hiv. Did we social distance, stop having sex and destroy the economy for that? No we take precautions and carry on.

[wd9]

ha you guys are just opening your selves for another logic bomb.

Original death projection 2.2m deaths with no mitigation. 200-500k deaths with mitigation plan. Actual deaths to come in under 50k.

So either trump did a great job saving 2m people or the science and the experts are bunk and the economy was destroyed on a lie. Pick your poison.

If you hate trump then disavow the garbage science pumped with MSM hysteria if that makes you feel better.

You know a hundreds of thousands of people die every yr from hiv. Did we social distance, stop having sex and destroy the economy for that? No we take precautions and carry on.

You said half of 60k for US.

[farming101]

ha you guys are just opening your selves for another logic bomb.

Original death projection 2.2m deaths with no mitigation. 200-500k deaths with mitigation plan. Actual deaths to come in under 50k.

So either trump did a great job saving 2m people or the science and the experts are bunk and the economy was destroyed on a lie. Pick your poison.

If you hate trump then disavow the garbage science pumped with MSM hysteria if that makes you feel better.

You know a hundreds of thousands of people die every yr from hiv. Did we social distance, stop having sex and destroy the economy for that? No we take precautions and carry on.

Imperial College London put out the report containing a 2.2 M deaths toll for the US with no mitigation. It is well worth the read. 20 pages.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Here is one thing it considers:
Introducing such interventions too early risks allowing transmission to return once they are lifted (if insufficient herd immunity has developed);it is therefore necessary to balance the timing of introduction with the scale of disruption imposed and the likely period over which the interventions can be maintained. In this scenario, interventions can limit transmission to the extent that little herd immunity is acquired –leading to the possibility that a second wave of infection is seen once interventions are lifted

So from that I wonder if we here in Saskatchewan may have to deal with a significant second wave. Something to think about. Actually that passage offers lots to think about...

[fjlip]

Covid finally surpassed seasonal flu deaths today, what are the communicable diseases deaths attributed to? 3.7 million this year, kind of makes all viruses a JOKE! so 284,000 total VIRUS deaths so far, 8% of communicable deaths?

Please research communicable deaths...

http://https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/worldwide-deaths-triggered-by-communicable-diseases.html http://https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/worldwide-deaths-triggered-by-communicable-diseases.html

Again most could be reduced by staying the fu ck away from each other, EXCEPT oops buried in there CLIMATE CHANGE is killing us !

[wd9]

ha you guys are just opening your selves for another logic bomb.

Still waiting for the logic bomb.

Jazz said. US revised to 60k deaths, we know it will be under half that.

[checking]

So where is our test city? Where can we blitz the hell out of a hot spot city in Canada to learn who has, or has not had exposure? This experiment should be doable to tell how far along the path to herd immunity a location has come. Model of some confidence from that.

[farming101]

Laval Quebec health region perhaps has the highest concentration of cases at 1772 (401/100,000)

But honestly even in that area I do not think there has been enough exposure for an immunity study. So, actually there is likely nowhere in Canada. Perhaps on a neighbourhood level?

Probably The Bronx NYC has the highest concentration in NA (1835 cases /100,000)

It remains to be seen whether or not herd immunity is even an option.

For the Bronx it might mean that another wave could not possibly be as bad as this one has been if there is immunity to covid-19

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Laval Quebec health region perhaps has the highest concentration of cases at 1772 (401/100,000)

But honestly even in that area I do not think there has been enough exposure for an immunity study. So, actually there is likely nowhere in Canada. Perhaps on a neighbourhood level?

Probably The Bronx NYC has the highest concentration in NA (1835 cases /100,000)

It remains to be seen whether or not herd immunity is even an option.

For the Bronx it might mean that another wave could not possibly be as bad as this one has been if there is immunity to covid-19

This has now been done in Santa Clara County. Looks like we have been underestimating total infections by 50 to 85 times. Not a small margin of error. Might already be closer to herd immunity than we think.

. These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

[checking]

AF5.

I heard that same thing morning on the hated MSNBC. So Jazz would say, "check further, it is all fake". Rest of the story was that even at those rates only 5% of their population has been exposed. That amounts to a real small herd.

Farming 101.

Thank you.

Is there any truth that the antibody test can not distinguish between a common cold corona virus antibody you may still have from exposure three years ago, and the CoV antibody of today

[farming101]

This has now been done in Santa Clara County. Looks like we have been underestimating total infections by 50 to 85 times. Not a small margin of error. Might already be closer to herd immunity than we think.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

Thanks very much for the link.

There are over 1.9 M people in Santa Clara county. So having an idea that as many as 48,000 to 81,000 have been exposed and now have antibodies is interesting seeing as how there were only 1148 confirmed cases logged at the time of the survey. This shows that they have not tested near enough people.
It also indicates that the vast majority have not been exposed.
One report I found indicated an immunity rate of 70% is needed before an ill person will not be able to spread the virus successfully.
https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic
With no vaccine and a 70% immunity rate a wild guess might be 1300 deaths. Santa Clara county has reported 73 deaths so far.
In the case of Santa Clara county, if maximum stress were put on the population and health care system, 2 waves might achieve herd immunity. I'm thinking under such a scenario there would be a lot of suffering. This not just from falling ill to covid-19 but the stress of doing without a lot of essential things for an extended period.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thanks for the analysis 101.
To clarify, when I see closer to herd immunity , I don't mean in absolute numerical terms , But in relative terms and in time.

Actual cases may be almost 2 orders of magnitude higher than thought, which puts only slightly over one order of magnitude away from the needed 70 percent. Given the exponential growth, that wouldn't take long in time. On the exponential curve, they are closer To herd immunity then the size of the error in the number of infected.

[farming101]

Thanks for the analysis 101.
To clarify, when I see closer to herd immunity , I don't mean in absolute numerical terms , But in relative terms and in time.

Actual cases may be almost 2 orders of magnitude higher than thought, which puts only slightly over one order of magnitude away from the needed 70 percent. Given the exponential growth, that wouldn't take long in time. On the exponential curve, they are closer To herd immunity then the size of the error in the number of infected.

There are so many factors that can weigh on a study like that it is wise to shoot for the middle or lower end of the results.
I read a lot of the replies to the study in the comments section. Some good points made about stretching this idea out too far.