Nightmare Scenario

[agstar77]

In Italy they are finding people who have survived the COVID-19 showing positive for the virus 40 days after initial test. They don't have symptoms but they are still infectious. No wonder it is so nasty. In other words you must quarantine until you test negative.

[the big wheel]

In Italy they are finding people who have survived the COVID-19 showing positive for the virus 40 days after initial test. They don't have symptoms but they are still infectious. No wonder it is so nasty. In other words you must quarantine until you test negative.

Are they testing positive and are infectious or is this just showing they had it and are immune?

[agstar77]

Testing positive and infectious.

[bobofthenorth]

This just reinforces what I have said from the beginning: the whole notion of "quarantining" healthy people is complete bullshit. Its not a quarantine if you're healthy - its a tyranny or an imprisonment. Quarantine is when you isolate infected people.

The only way out of any infectious disease is herd immunity. The sooner we accept that and get on with a plan to let herd immunity develop the better. Right now we've got people with cancer and heart disease dying because they can't get surgery in order to supposedly save the lives of some people who MIGHT die from the WuFlu. This is Alice in Wonderland territory - our whole world is topsy turvey and I haven't even mentioned the millions who will die from being suddenly plunged into poverty.

We're blindly following the edicts of a criminal enterprise called the UN. What could possibly go wrong with that plan?

[checking]

It is a quarantine if you haven't come down with what you are trying to prevent. It is an isolation if you become sick from what you were trying to prevent.

Either way, you need to stay home, or in your case, Bob, in prison.

[malleefarmer]

In a nutshell bob you’ve just explained why herd immunity won’t work.

I was in favour of it initially thought it was logical but changed my view 180 degrees

Many of my views of cv19 have changed as it worsened

[agstar77]

The answer is Testing.TestingTesting. This is the only way we have safe workplaces. Safe gathering. It must be quick, easy, accurate and cheap.

[FarmJunkie]

Your right on Bob. We are gonna avoid this for the most part until fall then we are gonna get it and more people are gonna die once they have to battle it all next winter. I would sooner have had this now to deal with it during summer. Don’t think any of us fully understand how the flu works so had they not made a big deal of this it would have been just like any other flu without the government lock down. Most of our so called experts don’t have a god damn clue what the proper protocol shud be based on the Chinese broad in our country.

[bobofthenorth]

Your right on Bob. We are gonna avoid this for the most part until fall then we are gonna get it and more people are gonna die once they have to battle it all next winter.

You're right but you know what --- people die every winter from the flu. If we had a functioning media they would investigate the increase (if there actually is an increase) in deaths as a result of the WuFlu. The people I feel the most sorry for are all those poor fools who died of the flu 8 months or more ago. No fame, no grieving media - just a box and a hole in the ground.

I already said it but it bears repeating - there will be orders of magnitude more people die from the fustercluck reaction to the WuFlu than actually die from the Chinese bug. People are going to starve to death, kids are going to go malnourished, crime is going to explode, treatment is going to get neglected or not done at all, surgery windows are going to be missed, medical resources are going to be misallocated.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

You're right but you know what --- people die every winter from the flu. If we had a functioning media they would investigate the increase (if there actually is an increase) in deaths as a result of the WuFlu. The people I feel the most sorry for are all those poor fools who died of the flu 8 months or more ago. No fame, no grieving media - just a box and a hole in the ground.

I already said it but it bears repeating - there will be orders of magnitude more people die from the fustercluck reaction to the WuFlu than actually die from the Chinese bug. People are going to starve to death, kids are going to go malnourished, crime is going to explode, treatment is going to get neglected or not done at all, surgery windows are going to be missed, medical resources are going to be misallocated.

My elderly neighbor developed a chronic and unbearable pain just before Covid upset everything. Her appointments for specialists have been cancelled, any relief treatment is now not permitted, stuck at home suffering for an indefinite period of time thanks to the shutdown. Yesterday she told me she wonders if it is worth going on. I have no idea if this is the right thing to do, but there are always unintended consequences.

[FarmJunkie]

Agreed. My dad was suppose to have his eye removed due to major issues and it has been postponed indefinitely and he is suffering greatly. This whole thing has me agitated to no end. Most days I believe our governments are bumble phucking their way thru this whole thing. It’s easy to see when u hear the so called experts contradict themselves almost daily. It’s like the preseason before the real season starts. One good or bad decision leads to a whole bunch of other consequences intended or unintended. As this continues on I think it would have been better to let this play out the way it was gonna go instead of try and play hero. What will be will be. Can’t stop dying. Gets us all in the end.

[farming101]

When people are dying that shouldn't be dying you'd better pay attention....

It is not just the mortality connected with the virus. Many are out of circulation for weeks and weeks. I cannot tell you definitively what the result would be if there would have been no restrictions but I can imagine

Italy, Spain the UK and the US didn't know what they had and then decided to put in strong restrictions and look what their numbers are. Imagine if there was nothing done once you have 10's of thousands of active cases and no one trying to stop it....

A lot more people in New York are just staying home and dealing with their illness. And they're not making it.
https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/how-does-cardiovascular-disease-increase-the-risk-of-severe-illness-and-death-from-covid-19-2020040219401 https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/how-does-cardiovascular-disease-increase-the-risk-of-severe-illness-and-death-from-covid-19-2020040219401

[farmaholic]

Has the evolution of humans, society, technology and modern medicine gone past the point where we don't have to make an effort to save lives in comparison to the medieval plagues and pandemics? Where many many died.

[shtferbrains]

Has the evolution of humans, society, technology and modern medicine gone past the point where we don't have to make an effort to save lives in comparison to the medieval plagues and pandemics? Where many many died.

We are not close to approaching medeval plagues or the 1918 pandemic.

"The next noteworthy aspect of the 1918 influenza epidemic is the exceptionally high mortality associated with it. Crosby (1989) estimates that it took the lives of 550,000 Americans, a figure that he deems conservative. The estimated population of the United States on 1 July 1918 was some 103 million (Linder and Grove 1943), so approximately 0.5 percent of the US population died as a result of the epidemic. Worldwide, the death toll is generally put at 20 million. Given the rudimentary state of vital registration in most of what was then the colonized world, this is a rough estimate. Kingsley Davis (1951: 237) calculated that in colonial India alone there were some 18.5 million influenza deaths during 1918–19, and in one of his scenarios the total is 31 million. Thus, the worldwide death total could easily have been in the neighborhood of 40 million."

Current numbers show about 127,000 deaths world and 26000 in the USA with 3x the population.
Numbers might be under reported but I don't see USA at +1.5 million deaths.
California and Texas have similar populations to Canada and show better numbers than us.

It's certainly not over but I'm willing to bet a lot of those big ventilator orders that arrive in August wont get taken out of the box.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2740912/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2740912/

A link to above quote if anyone interested. Some good follow up on the effects on population.

[farmaholic]

Shtferbrains.

I don't like the way this is playing out either, but not that I was "hoping" there were going to be greater mortality rates just to say we did the right thing. The isolation and loss of freedom of movement and gathering is getting old. The crippled economy and personal suffering on a multitude of levels will be far reaching and take their toll. Some people's saving grace is sparse population.

Can you imagine one hundred years ago when rural Western Canada had a farm on nearly every quarter. Poor health care...or NONE!. Weekly gathering for social and religious reasons. Uninformed or too late. Naive. Maybe hot tea and mustard pack remedies in that era weren't effective.

Was doing "nothing" this time a reasonable option? When this is over and either an effective vaccine is developed or greater herd immunity achieved, Covid-19 will just be part of the "flu complex". So next time a novel virus comes along we won't panic and consequences could be much much worse for it.

I don't know...