today's Peter Zeihan article on covid.

[jamesb]

https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9&id=79a14a90db

[AlbertaFarmer5]

So who here is willing to cough up $750 USD on April 20th to hear what he has to say about Agriculture?

Are there 750 of us willing to crowd fund $1 each, and someone can take notes to share afterwards? Not sure what could be said that couldn't be deduced elsewhere that would be of that value?

[Agg_illiterate]

So who here is willing to cough up $750 USD on April 20th to hear what he has to say about Agriculture?

Are there 750 of us willing to crowd fund $1 each, and someone can take notes to share afterwards? Not sure what could be said that couldn't be deduced elsewhere that would be of that value?

I am new to this board and joined because I need to lurk for information. I am a futures trader, mostly Dow, Crude, and Gold. I pay gladly for all of his webinars and can vouch for the depth of his information and insights. His books are also next level. He has a deep understanding of how things move in all industries and landscapes.

That said given you folks are the ones on the ground so to speak, you may not need his AGG insights as much as someone needing a more macro view of everything.

Expensive, yes but worth it IMO.

His books are great too.

I hope this helps.
B

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I am new to this board and joined because I need to lurk for information. I am a futures trader, mostly Dow, Crude, and Gold. I pay gladly for all of his webinars and can vouch for the depth of his information and insights. His books are also next level. He has a deep understanding of how things move in all industries and landscapes.

That said given you folks are the ones on the ground so to speak, you may not need his AGG insights as much as someone needing a more macro view of everything.

Expensive, yes but worth it IMO.

His books are great too.

I hope this helps.
B

Welcome to the forum.
I don't doubt the value, I did pay to see him when he came to Calgary. Not sure at this point if us down on the farm are blinded with our microscopic view and missing the big pictures or not.

[dmlfarmer]

If anyone does get a chance to question Zeihan, I would be expecially interested in asking him about the following paragraph he wrote in the link that James posted:

"The core of our dispute is information. The United States still hasn’t reached sustainable COVID testing capacity of 150,000 people a day. Until the country hits one million, complete economic lockdown is really the only mitigation method for any flareups. At the rate we are going we will not get there this year. That leaves all three of us guessing. Just how bad COVID-19 is going to be? Just how long will it last? Can we get reinfected? How soon until a reasonable treatment?"

Does Zeihan believe social distancing must continue until the US reaches a million tests per day, even if it takes until next year? What does he mean by complete economic lowdown is the only mitigation for any flareups? Does this mean the flareups happening at packing plants mean these should be completely shut down? Until when?

I know lots of participants here follow Zeihan, but his vision of reopening the economy seems opposite of Trumps.

[agstar77]

If anyone does get a chance to question Zeihan, I would be expecially interested in asking him about the following paragraph he wrote in the link that James posted:

"The core of our dispute is information. The United States still hasn’t reached sustainable COVID testing capacity of 150,000 people a day. Until the country hits one million, complete economic lockdown is really the only mitigation method for any flareups. At the rate we are going we will not get there this year. That leaves all three of us guessing. Just how bad COVID-19 is going to be? Just how long will it last? Can we get reinfected? How soon until a reasonable treatment?"

Does Zeihan believe social distancing must continue until the US reaches a million tests per day, even if it takes until next year? What does he mean by complete economic lowdown is the only mitigation for any flareups? Does this mean the flareups happening at packing plants mean these should be completely shut down? Until when?

I know lots of participants here follow Zeihan, but his vision of reopening the economy seems opposite of Trumps.

Testing and tracking are the only way to re-open. We are not there yet.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I know lots of participants here follow Zeihan, but his vision of reopening the economy seems opposite of Trumps.

Not sure how close you follow him, but his personal politics would be far to the left of the typical Trump supporter, but uniquely, he does manage to not let his personal biases influence his outlook on reality. Zeihan posting something critical of Trump is not unsurprising.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I am new to this board and joined because I need to lurk for information. I am a futures trader, mostly Dow, Crude, and Gold. I pay gladly for all of his webinars and can vouch for the depth of his information and insights. His books are also next level. He has a deep understanding of how things move in all industries and landscapes.

That said given you folks are the ones on the ground so to speak, you may not need his AGG insights as much as someone needing a more macro view of everything.

Expensive, yes but worth it IMO.

His books are great too.

I hope this helps.
B

If you do pay your hard earned money to watch the webinar, would you be so generous as to let us know if we are way off base? Don't expect you to share the details you paid for, but more so, just the general direction he foresees. Which I presume to be short term shocks to the processing and transporation infrastructure causing price shocks in the grocery store, and temporary price drops, even no bid on the farm. Then in the medium term, much better farmgate prices, as supply shrinks due to lack of financing, labour, inputs, and product being destroyed due to plant shut downs, plus the increased demand due to stockpiling. Then in the longer term, back to declining real prices as export markets fail to come back, and high prices spur on more production.