Canola

[farmaholic]

Seems to be near the bottom of its approximate $460 -$475 trading range.
Is it time for it to turn up again?
Will spring thrash pressure prices?
What position are funds?
Commercial stocks?
What happens if it breaks support?
What would it take to break resistance? Got to get there first!

[farming101]

Seems to be near the bottom of its approximate $460 -$475 trading range.
Is it time for it to turn up again?
Will spring thrash pressure prices?
What position are funds?
Commercial stocks?
What happens if it breaks support?
What would it take to break resistance? Got to get there first!

A few thoughts: all prices RSN20
While 461-I'll say 479 may be the recent trading range do not neglect the RSN March 16 low of 452.20
If even a little hope and confidence does not surface here to hold/raise prices up rather than down it could indicate a short term weaker/longer recovery scenario
Spring thrash is going to turn out to be a drawn out affair, as such it's influence on prices won't be as great as it would be with a quick spring harvest
Commercial stocks are not burdensome in a normal market, this is not a normal market. I would suspect basis may widen indicating the supply chain is seeing greater risks
If the rather weak support at 461 fails, 455 would be the new support
Every time prices test support the resistance lines get thicker.
End of April:
above 472 stability, positive
above 468 okay but not great
avoiding that 461 area gives it a shot of ending the month somewhere in between 468-472

[checking]

What does CoV and canola price have in common?
Refer to the 31 and counting "like" post

[Richard5]

Maybe I am wrong but personally I feel that if we missed the boat on the mid 10's that was available before Jan that we are SOL for much over 9.75-10. Maybe if Covid didn't happen it might have a better outlook.

For those that hold canola and are always looking for more, you best be ordering more bins. I would never hold more than 10-15% of any traditional crop, makes zero sense to me unless the market absolutely tanks which have not seen in a long time

[farmaholic]

We're:

94% Contracted
89% Delivered
75% Priced

All against a locked in specialty canola basis.

Contract was for July/Aug delivery(picked up), they wanted it early... be my guest.

Good experience so far.

Now I'm watching July 2021 futures, may lock in a very small percentage of 2020 production.
When I looked at one time today, July 2021 futures were up to $496.20($11.25/bu) plus a very strong positive basis.

[fjlip]

Everyone is delivering EARLY here too, June wheat last few days...

[FarmJunkie]

I can see it already. These companies are bidding to gear up for the post Corona economy. Gonna be busy as all hell selling to countries stocking up in case shit hits the fan again. I’m sure the Richardson’s and Viterras of the world are gonna make a killing.