Canola intra-day and daily charts....

[farmaholic]

I sure don't like where canola seems to be flattening out. Where are we going?

[farmaholic]

JULY is approaching that 475 mark again.
Is there any news to propel it past and rally?
Might just pull the trigger on the last bit we have delivered but is unpriced.

Chart people and analysts?

[Guest]

JHC , farma , this is not a marketing forum *

[farmaholic]

JHC , farma , this is not a marketing forum *

I know, I know, but I contribute more than my fair share of non marketing crap here so it's good to throw some marketing stuff in here every once in awhile.

Canola gained about ten bucks a tonne in the last two to three weeks but had to really work for every bit of it.

[sumdumguy]

You would think that the poor spring harvest would propel higher - maybe.

[farmaholic]

I wonder what the price of canola would be if all of last year's canola crop came off when it was supposed to.
I know some likely got burned, some was left behind this spring because it was in mud and water holes, the over- winter losses due to shatter..... but I think that is all already factored into the price today.

Did the market really need all those lost tonnes? Although it seems if something is cheap enough it always finds a new home.

[bucket]

I wonder what the price of canola would be if all of last year's canola crop came off when it was supposed to.
I know some likely got burned, some was left behind this spring because it was in mud and water holes, the over- winter losses due to shatter..... but I think that is all already factored into the price today.

Did the market really need all those lost tonnes? Although it seems if something is cheap enough it always finds a new home.

Had it been a normal harvest last year I think you would be seeing 8 dollar canola right now...

I think it could go there this year as well...

[farming101]

Resistance to closing above ML (red arrows)

[farmaholic]

I wish I knew where to draw the lines.

[sumdumguy]

472/44.092= too cheap

[farmaholic]

472/44.092= too cheap

Don't forget the basis!

Actually, I have a positive $77.36 basis. $12.45/bu today picked up.

The negative basis on commodity canola makes the price spread even wider compared to the specialty canola.

Like probably about $2.60/bu.

But I wouldn't grow it because it's slow and has a big yeild drag.

Storage and fuel costs money, so a smaller lighter crop is cheaper to grow and store.

Stayin Ghetto poor growing specialty canola.....

[farmaholic]

stuck below 475