Canola intra-day and daily charts....

[farmaholic]

JHC , farma , this is not a marketing forum *

I know, I know, but I contribute more than my fair share of non marketing crap here so it's good to throw some marketing stuff in here every once in awhile.

Canola gained about ten bucks a tonne in the last two to three weeks but had to really work for every bit of it.

[sumdumguy]

You would think that the poor spring harvest would propel higher - maybe.

[farmaholic]

I wonder what the price of canola would be if all of last year's canola crop came off when it was supposed to.
I know some likely got burned, some was left behind this spring because it was in mud and water holes, the over- winter losses due to shatter..... but I think that is all already factored into the price today.

Did the market really need all those lost tonnes? Although it seems if something is cheap enough it always finds a new home.

[bucket]

I wonder what the price of canola would be if all of last year's canola crop came off when it was supposed to.
I know some likely got burned, some was left behind this spring because it was in mud and water holes, the over- winter losses due to shatter..... but I think that is all already factored into the price today.

Did the market really need all those lost tonnes? Although it seems if something is cheap enough it always finds a new home.

Had it been a normal harvest last year I think you would be seeing 8 dollar canola right now...

I think it could go there this year as well...

[farming101]

Resistance to closing above ML (red arrows)

[farmaholic]

I wish I knew where to draw the lines.

[sumdumguy]

472/44.092= too cheap

[farmaholic]

472/44.092= too cheap

Don't forget the basis!

Actually, I have a positive $77.36 basis. $12.45/bu today picked up.

The negative basis on commodity canola makes the price spread even wider compared to the specialty canola.

Like probably about $2.60/bu.

But I wouldn't grow it because it's slow and has a big yeild drag.

Storage and fuel costs money, so a smaller lighter crop is cheaper to grow and store.

Stayin Ghetto poor growing specialty canola.....

[farmaholic]

stuck below 475

[farming101]

Higher not working....well, try lower than.....

[farmaholic]

Spot prices are about 10 bucks. Trigger trigger trigger. I really hate the way marketing has evolved with target price contracts.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Higher not working....well, try lower than.....

At risk of sounding conspiratorial, I think you are right. Need to play the emotions of fear and greed against us to keep shaking bushels loose. Up a bit and we sell, but As soon as it appears to be an uptrend we get greedy and stop selling holding out for higher, So the trend has to reverse Until we all think it's going to zero and fear takes over and we sell.

[farming101]

Good to see a green day and that canola avoided sinking below 458 July.

Watch for closes above 466.50 to give a chance for 475.
Failing that watch out for that sub 458....

[Rareearth]

Now,
Wouldn’t it be interesting if part of the CGC mandate was to, collect :
- every Tuesday and Thursday licenced grain buyers must report
- number of farmers that have a price offer formally with a exporter
- the commodity, grade and tonnage
- delivery month

Then CGC to report this info every Monday morning. Skippy could do this, no doubt in my mind.

[farming101]

Sub 458 hit this morning-RSN. Gunning for a new low for July contract now.