Wheat losses

[malleefarmer]

Straight currency futures maths since March 23 we’ve lost $93 per tonne aust dollars.

Currently $264

Ps no positive basis added in the equation.

If basis factored in only current foward prices around the $291. Take off roughly $30 to get my on farm price these are export numbers domestic tad higher but not bidding for grain at moment waiting watching

You guys similar?

[malleefarmer]

Edit yeah sorry you guys price per bushels have to wok it out when you talk

[farming101]

#1 13.5 around 235 CAD give or take. Hasn't been much higher for about a year

[helmsdale]

Nearest wheat bids with freight taken off to get to farm gate for here...

#1cwrs 14.0: $237.21 p+h
#1cwrs 14.0: $233.42 paterson
#1cwrs 14.0: $224.91 viterra

#2cwad 12.0 or better: $284.14 paterson
#1cwad 12.0: $275.45 p+h
#1cwad 12.0: $252.08 viterra

All july movement

[helmsdale]

Except on yellow peas, viterra doesn't even seem to care to be competitive anymore. What are others seeing with regards to viterra?

[woodland]

Nearest wheat bids with freight taken off to get to farm gate for here...

#1cwrs 14.0: $237.21 p+h
#1cwrs 14.0: $233.42 paterson
#1cwrs 14.0: $224.91 viterra

#2cwad 12.0 or better: $284.14 paterson
#1cwad 12.0: $275.45 p+h
#1cwad 12.0: $252.08 viterra

All july movement

Hmmm
$216 for feed barley at the bin for July movement currently. No grades, trucking, farting around, etc........ Is it worthwhile to grow people chow when stuff that becomes moo poo is within a few dollars?
Disclaimer......... I can’t seem to grow gradeable wheat out in the muskeg anyways.

[helmsdale]

Hmmm
$216 for feed barley at the bin for July movement currently. No grades, trucking, farting around, etc........ Is it worthwhile to grow people chow when stuff that becomes moo poo is within a few dollars?
Disclaimer......... I can’t seem to grow gradeable wheat out in the muskeg anyways.

Most years we cant grow very good barley. July tends to burn it down, resulting in light weights and low yields.

[malleefarmer]

Call me negative but optimism is a great thing. It's absolutely necessary to be an optimist in agriculture, but it does us a disservice sometimes by allowing us to ignore obvious signs and keep hoping instead For higher prices and or better basis.

Looking for a black swan event errr we’ve had it cv19

Not ultra negative more got my realism hat on.

The ole die hard handful of em left......oh if we had single desk this wouldn’t be happening , yeah right $355 here a mid March AWB would have said yep we will caputure that in a pool and you will benefit over next 18 months.

Saw something on twitter is it saskwheat commission look like a bunch of single desk hacks clinging on for dear life.

Err shit I think I’ve gone off topic sorry

[Austrian Economics]

Wheat is a commodity and like most any other, ag or otherwise, its price will tend to fall as long as interest rates fall. There is next to zero possibility of a rise in interest rates for years to come, so the long term trend is unfortunately down.

[errolanderson]

Chicago and Kansas City wheat price snorkelling today . . . Fresh contract lows.
September KC broke below $4.25/bu this morning. IGC London raised their global wheat production to 768 million MT, up 2 million MT largely due to production increases in Australia and China.
Technically, these futures are quite oversold, but with little reason for cash recovery right now.

Changing commodities . . . fat cattle across North America under heavy selling pressure as well this week. Texas cash slipping to $95 to $97/cwt. Alberta fed cattle tubing with the live market breaking below $1.25/lb on limited packer buying. Cattle remain backed up in lots which is contributing to feed barley price strength. Alberta finished cattle losses may be approaching $500 per head. Believe grass cattle and cows holding up well . . . .

[macdon02]

Until the Kurgan, aka USD is replaced, we commodity producers, can expect more of the same. Just goose it to 160+ and get this shit over with.

[errolanderson]

The battle for wheat market share is on . . . .

Ukraine export wheat prices generally undercut Russian export values. But now they are running neck and neck. Russia has become quite aggressive through June.

Black Sea export prices have eased about 6 percent since late May . . . .

[Hamloc]

Wheat is a commodity and like most any other, ag or otherwise, its price will tend to fall as long as interest rates fall. There is next to zero possibility of a rise in interest rates for years to come, so the long term trend is unfortunately down.

I really don’t blame lower commodity prices on falling interest rates. Falling interest rates and lower commodity prices are all linked to lack of consumer demand and the attempt to increase that demand or to increase consumer spending. Unfortunately farmers can’t collectively curtail production so we try to produce more from the same land and spend less doing it, hence the race to the bottom and the resulting over production. When I was a pig farmer I watched many farms go under and then watched somebody buy that farm for half of what it cost to build and the second farmer could then make a go of it. In grain farming this doesn’t work because land continues to appreciate due to the aforementioned low interest rates. And of course you have to throw in Mother Nature who sometimes determines your fate. So I certainly don’t have an answer except that those with the best balance sheet will be left standing at the end.

[beaverdam]

Where's the #5 durum going? Elevators paying over $7.00 for #5 durum, means it has to be used for human consumption, maybe Africa, as I thought I heard something a week or so ago about shortages in north Africa area? Can #5 durum be turned into pasta,,, low quality pasta??? What gross price would an importer have to pay for this low quality durum, if it's over $7.00 on the east side of Sask(pretty much the highest freight area)???

And why pay over $7.00 for #5 when, #1 is only a $1.50-1.75 more per bushel?

Makes me wonder what the real price for #1 is??? $12.00 bucks ,,, or more???

Is any #1 or #2 durum Canadian making it's way into Europe???

[Oliver88]

Changing commodities . . . fat cattle across North America under heavy selling pressure as well this week. Texas cash slipping to $95 to $97/cwt. Alberta fed cattle tubing with the live market breaking below $1.25/lb on limited packer buying. Cattle remain backed up in lots which is contributing to feed barley price strength. Alberta finished cattle losses may be approaching $500 per head. Believe grass cattle and cows holding up well . . . .

High yielding feed barley could end up being a better option than malt again this year.