USA situation virus?

[jazz]

I think you failed virology 101.

Refute the reasoning if you can. Don't just drop ad hominem insults. That's a cop out.

That article proves there were unrestrained carriers roaming the planet for a year before the strain was identified. 3 weeks gestation to apparent death. Work it out. Using the experts own contact models.

Unrestrained carriers should have resulted in millions of deaths by now. Where are they?

[biglentil]

I have probably already had it and didn't even know. So have you. So has most of the planet.

Like I told you all before, if there was really a deadly new virus that had emerged, brand new to the human immune system, you would have seen stadiums full of dead in the first few months. Just like the bubonic plague.

Pls stop Jazz most of the planet has not contracted it. When it tears through a nursing home it's pretty obvious.

"A*New York City nursing home reported 98 resident deaths Friday believed to be linked to the coronavirus, a figure so staggering the facility ordered a refrigerator truck to store the bodies until backed-up funeral homes could pick them up."

[the big wheel]

The biggest issue to me is that I don’t trust the number of deaths caused by this as stated by governments. It has become so obvious that those govs they want to get re elected are under stating and those that want to get elected are possibly overstating.
If this was here before we thought no one was tested for this at all at time of death. So who knows

[fjlip]

"Bosch, who is president of the Spanish Society of Virologists, said that an early detection even in January could have improved the response to the pandemic. Instead, patients were probably misdiagnosed with common flu, contributing to community transmission before measures were taken."

Well if true, infections for a year undiagnosed could mean MILLIONS had it, 98% are mild, so the death rate could be TINY, as any other flu or the COLDS we all have!

[Blaithin]

The morbidity of it now lends credence to it being fairly new. Or at least the strains currently making the rounds that are so easily transmissible are newer. Keeping in mind coronavirus IS the cause of the common cold.

If it was around for a year Florida should already all have had it at the rate they’re going right now. Which means... they haven’t already all had it, or immunity is next to non existent, or its evolved.

[jazz]

BL, think, stop and really think instead of what you feel like is happening.

The CDC model of march showed that a group of unrestained carriers in the US with no lock down and no measures at all would result in 2.2M deaths in a population of 350M by August, just 5 months. Those were the experts right?

Now apply that to the planet for twice as long. A group of carriers sprreading over the entire planet March 2019 to January 2020. That's 9 months of spread in a population of 7B before any lockdowns were even considered. That would have result in more than 100M dead.

You would have thought our experts might have noticed 100M dying people going through the hospital systems of the world.

Deaths are dropping, the recorded mortality rate in the entire population is 0.26% right now as verified by Stanford. More than 98% survival. Lots of things rip through nursing homes. People dying at 85 are not a representative sample of any cause of death in the general population.

[Blaithin]

Darn those experts for not knowing how something unknown would react and affect the world.

Where’s Nostradamus when you need him.

[fjlip]

We didn't start testing for COVID-19 until March, and testing didn't ramp up in earnest until a month or two later in most parts of the country. How many cases already existed when the panic set in during mid-March? According to a peer-reviewed study by Penn State, "the number of early COVID-19 cases in the U.S. may have been more than 80 times greater and doubled nearly twice as fast as originally believed."

The study, which was published in the journal Science Translational Medicine, analyzed influenza-like illnesses (ILI) surveillance data over a three-week period in March 2020. Researchers calculated the likely excess cases that clearly were not the typical flu and estimate that "excess ILI corresponds to more than 8.7 million new cases during the last three weeks of March, compared to the roughly 100,000 cases that were officially reported during the same time period."
This finding is significant for several reasons:
1) Lockdowns missed the boat: By the time we locked down, this virus was already spreading far and wide. The CDC's own research on mitigating the spread of flu indicates that "the effectiveness of pandemic mitigation strategies will erode rapidly as the cumulative illness rate prior to implementation climbs above 1 percent of the population in an affected area." According to the Penn State study, the virus had already hit 4% of the nationwide population and 9% of New York residents. That explains why 66% of those who were hospitalized in New York were people who were already staying at home. Lockdowns were never going to work. According to the study, the overwhelming majority of states were already at more than 1% prevalence.
We know from numerous reports that the virus was already here as early as December. Last week, a study from Italy's National Institute of Health found that the virus was in the wastewater in Milan and Turin as early as December 18. Researchers discovered the virus in 40 samples of wastewater during standard checks of sewage treatment plants in northern Italy. Obviously, the U.S. has more travel to and from China than even Italy, so there's no reason to believe it wasn't here in December as well.

2) Testing metrics are meaningless given the enormous number of those infected with few or no symptoms: Given that there were 87 times more cases than what had been unidentified through testing in March, imagine how many tens of millions have gotten the virus since then? What this study shows is that the virus spreads like the flu, unlike SARS-CoV-1 in 2003, which was rare and deadly. This is the context the media fails to provide when trumpeting more cases in the southern states. Now that we have universal testing in hospitals and anyone can obtain a test anywhere else, we are discovering more of what already was spreading for a while. It's not surprising, now that hospitals are back up to capacity with typical patients, that a large percentage of them are testing positive for the virus, even though they don't have serious cases.

For example, Rhode Island health director Nicole Alexander-Scott said already in May, "We are now identifying more people who are in the hospital with COVID-19 as opposed to just people who are in the hospital because of COVID-19 or for COVID-19-related illnesses. Someone could have a sprained ankle and if they are screened for COVID-19 and their test returns positive … they may be in the hospital with COVID-19. We want to make sure we are capturing that data as well." (Emphasis hers.)
This was not true in March or April. My wife gave birth in a Maryland hospital in early April, at the peak of the virus, and was not tested.

This new study demonstrates that had we implemented universal testing at that period, along with the regular flow of patients, we would have reported exponentially more hospitalizations.
3) It's all about borders and quantity of initial introduction of a virus into a country: How much of the virus was actually introduced into a given region – country or state – likely played a large role in how bad the epidemic was. A new analysis of 500 regions in Europe shows that the areas that had a large spread at the beginning were the ones that fared much worse than those with little prevalence in March. The bottom line is that once a virus is brought in large numbers to a region, the effect of human mitigation is limited until it runs its course.

We see a similar dynamic from this Penn State study. States like Arkansas and Arizona had almost no prevalence in March, according to their research, while New York already had over 9%. California, Texas, and Florida also had much lower prevalence of the virus, even though they are the biggest states. This explains the ultimate death tolls diverging so widely between those states and New York and why those states are experiencing a longer, more drawn-out, yet milder curve, rather than an acute spike and then a precipitous drop as New York and New Jersey had.
Arizona has only become a hot spot after it reintroduced the virus from Mexico with a surge of medical tourism across the border.

While the virus peaked in the U.S. from late March to early April, fatalities in Mexico didn't begin to spike until May, which is when people with proper documentation to enter the U.S. began stampeding toward U.S. hospitals at the border.

Thus, the lesson is that the one thing you can do is prevent the introduction of a virus before it takes off. There's not much to do after it has already started. Yet our government refused to shut off international travel when it matters, but shuts down the lives of citizens when it will no longer help."

[biglentil]

BL, think, stop and really think instead of what you feel like is happening.

The CDC model of march showed that a group of unrestained carriers in the US with no lock down and no measures at all would result in 2.2M deaths in a population of 350M by August, just 5 months. Those were the experts right?

Now apply that to the planet for twice as long. A group of carriers sprreading over the entire planet March 2019 to January 2020. That's 9 months of spread in a population of 7B before any lockdowns were even considered. That would have result in more than 100M dead.

You would have thought our experts might have noticed 100M dying people going through the hospital systems of the world.

Deaths are dropping, the recorded mortality rate in the entire population is 0.26% right now as verified by Stanford. More than 98% survival. Lots of things rip through nursing homes. People dying at 85 are not a representative sample of any cause of death in the general population.

US closed cases data

For .26% to be correct that would mean 50 million Americans have already had it, did not get tested, and have since recovered. I call bullshit. And no shit Sherlock an 85 year old dying is not representative of the general population. A nursing home is a canary in coal mine, when the CCP virus gets in one. You'll know it. An obvious marker as to why we know the CCP virus has not infected most of the planet like you claim.

[farming101]

Diamond Princess 712 cases, 13 deaths

Saskatchewan 778 cases, 13 deaths

there's your ratio, or close to it.

There are so many factors that will dictate a unique outcome for a given jurisdiction. There are no rules.
In Italy it is clear now that the virus got into the elderly population and caused a disproportionate amount of death.
In the US there are many who have health issues that is making the virus so much more deadly. In Canada the virus got into the elderly population in Quebec.

There's over 50,000 people in SK that are 80 years old or older. The virus hasn't infected any great percentage of SK people

[fjlip]

More from CDC...millions had a mild hardly a cold infection…


Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert R. Redfield speaks after a White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing at the Department of Health and Human Services on Friday.

Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, estimates that there may have been 10 times more COVID-19 cases in the U.S. than the number that is reflected in official statistics, based on the results from antibody studies.


"The traditional approach of looking for symptomatic illness and diagnoses obviously underestimated the total number of infections," Redfield announced last week, Time reported. "Now that serology tests are available, which test for antibodies, the estimates we have right now show about 10 times more people have antibodies in the jurisdictions tested than had documented infections."

How did they estimate this? The estimate comes from the results of serology studies from six locations: the western part of Washington state, New York City, south Florida, Connecticut, Missouri, and Utah.
The surveys found the actual number of cases, based on the number of people in whom they found antibodies, was 11 or 12 times higher in Washington, NYC, south Florida, and Utah. It was 6 times higher in Connecticut and 24 times higher in Missouri.
Further studies in more locations are being conducted to provide more insight on the true scope of the virus.

What does this mean? Media reports in recent weeks have focused on increases in the number of new COVID-19 cases. The U.S. currently counts about 2.6 million total COVID-19 cases.
If the CDC estimate is even close to being accurate, and there have more than 20 million cases, the recent uproar over new positive tests becomes less meaningful, especially if the number of new deaths stays flat or continues to decrease over time even as cases increase

If there have been 20 million cases in the U.S., then the mortality rate is much lower than previously thought, and millions more people than previously known have contracted the virus and not even gotten sick, let alone had to go to a hospital or faced severe and potentially deadly illness.

[farming101]

More from CDC...millions had a mild hardly a cold infection…


Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert R. Redfield speaks after a White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing at the Department of Health and Human Services on Friday.

Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, estimates that there may have been 10 times more COVID-19 cases in the U.S. than the number that is reflected in official statistics, based on the results from antibody studies.


"The traditional approach of looking for symptomatic illness and diagnoses obviously underestimated the total number of infections," Redfield announced last week, Time reported. "Now that serology tests are available, which test for antibodies, the estimates we have right now show about 10 times more people have antibodies in the jurisdictions tested than had documented infections."

How did they estimate this? The estimate comes from the results of serology studies from six locations: the western part of Washington state, New York City, south Florida, Connecticut, Missouri, and Utah.
The surveys found the actual number of cases, based on the number of people in whom they found antibodies, was 11 or 12 times higher in Washington, NYC, south Florida, and Utah. It was 6 times higher in Connecticut and 24 times higher in Missouri.
Further studies in more locations are being conducted to provide more insight on the true scope of the virus.

What does this mean? Media reports in recent weeks have focused on increases in the number of new COVID-19 cases. The U.S. currently counts about 2.6 million total COVID-19 cases.
If the CDC estimate is even close to being accurate, and there have more than 20 million cases, the recent uproar over new positive tests becomes less meaningful, especially if the number of new deaths stays flat or continues to decrease over time even as cases increase

If there have been 20 million cases in the U.S., then the mortality rate is much lower than previously thought, and millions more people than previously known have contracted the virus and not even gotten sick, let alone had to go to a hospital or faced severe and potentially deadly illness.

Could be, but even these much larger numbers draw one to the conclusion that the majority have yet to be exposed.