US Wheat exports and crop conditions

[helmsdale]

And on a side note... What the hell is this thread? How did we get derailed and start talking about commodities/ag in general?

[malleefarmer]

Found this , this morning 6.40 am currently

WASDE:

The world is awash with wheat with record stocks. However China is holding close to 52% of the global stockpile according to the USDA.

In all likelihood these stocks will not enter the global market.


Begs the question Errol macdon02 farming 101 does China actually physically own this wheat or on paper to a degree wheat purchased not received just a deal?

[malleefarmer]

CBOT Sept wht up A$21.32/t & Dec up A$9.79. Prices at 2 1/2 mth high after Egypt paid US$8/t more for Russian wht this week compared to last week. This is seen as signalling a rise in global wheat prices. There was also short covering by funds.

[beaverdam]

And on a side note... What the hell is this thread? How did we get derailed and start talking about commodities/ag in general?

Marketing commodities, gasp!

p.s. for a few here on agriville, it doesn't interest them in the least, they have other motives.

[bucket]

The world is awash with wheat with record stocks. However China is holding close to 52% of the global stockpile according to the USDA.


And china purchased 2 mmt of wheat from canada last year with farmers finding out after had been offloaded in their ports.

[malleefarmer]

September #wheat is down 15.50 USc/bu, as the USDA reported lower than expected export sales of wheat to China, and no mention of the rumored SRW sales. The #AUD is down 0.34c, as the amount of COVID-19 cases in Vic and the rest of the world increases, weighing on risk sentiment.

[beaverdam]

Wheat news from Allendale;

"The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that dry weather in central and northern parts of Argentina will likely reduce the amount of wheat planted in the area, and is impacting the development of what is already planted there.

The International Grains Council cut its global wheat production estimate to 762 million tonnes, a drop of 6 million. The cut came from lower outlooks in the E.U. and Russia."

other wheat news:

DJ IGC Cuts Wheat, Corn Production Forecasts
By Will Horner
Wheat and corn harvests next year will be slightly lower than expected, the International Grains Council said Thursday, leading it to cut its forecast for total grains production.
The IGC in its monthly report said the 2020-21 grains harvest is estimated to yield 2.225 billion metric tons, 13 million tons less than the intergovernmental body expected last month.
The revision is driven by smaller-than-expected wheat and corn harvest, the IGC said. It said global wheat harvests would produce 762 million tons, six million tons less than its previous estimate, and corn harvests would produce 1.164 billion tons, five million tons less than previous estimates.
Despite the downgrade, the IGC still expects next year’s harvest to be the largest on record and 48 million tons larger than this year’s. The change means the IGC now expects carryover stocks to be 625 million tons next year, 10 million tons less than previous forecasts though still the largest since the 2017-18 season.
The IGC left its forecast for consumption and trade broadly unchanged.

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher on changes in the US Dollar Index. The index fell below 95.00 in the September contract and trends in the index are down. The moves in the index help US grains prices get more competitive overseas. The Winter Wheat harvest is starting to get complete. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions and futures prices closed lower. All markets felt selling pressure from reports of improving yields in Europe and especially Russia. The yields had been poor but have improved as combines have moved into growing areas that developed under better conditions. Yield reports from the central and southern Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Soft Red Winter yields are expected to be high. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 531, 517, and 494 September, with resistance at 540, 552, and 564 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 444, 432, and 430 September, with resistance at 454, 464, and 468 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 513, 510, and 508 September, and resistance is at 518, 520, and 528 September.

[malleefarmer]

Seemingly plenty oF grain about

[malleefarmer]

CBOT Sept wht up A$4.98/t & Dec up A$5.24. A delayed reaction to an IGC report last wk that cut prodn estimates for many countries. China may also import more US wht. Two ships were sold to China last wk. US export sales ahead of last yr. EU wht up against a higher euro.

[malleefarmer]

Will USDA downgrade as well

[malleefarmer]

FYI canola not your or mine

#Chinese #canola oil futures have rallied signifcantly, currently trading at US$1,236/T due to #supply concerns. In contrast to the drought conditions in NE #China, excessive rain and destructive #floods are hitting Sth China, damaging over 2 million hectares of summer crops.

[malleefarmer]

CBOT Sept wht up A$3.38/t & Dec up A$2.85. Some short covering after yesterday’s losses. US spr wht yields may fall short of forecasts. SovEcon reduced their Russian wht forecast by 400kt to 79.3 mill t. Argentine wht area & prodn estimates reduced but still a record 20 mill t.