US Wheat exports and crop conditions

[beaverdam]

Is It A Bottom or Just Consolidating

https://www.barchart.com/story/futures/grains/39880/wheat-just-my-opinion https://www.barchart.com/story/futures/grains/39880/wheat-just-my-opinion

[farming101]

Chicago wheat has got to do better or it's down we go.
Sept has to break 5.07 for a few days. Even then it is best to look for a selling opportunity all the way up to 5.80 or so if there is a rally.

[malleefarmer]

#BlackSea #wheat production may be lower than expected after drier than avg weather. Early yields in Sth #Russia are coming in at 2.5-3MT/ha vs. 3.6MT/ha avg, whilst dryness in June also caused #Ukrainian officials to revise their local wheat production estimate 15% lower YoY.

[beaverdam]

Here's a pretty cool historical MGE Wheat monthly chart;

https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/MW/M https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/MW/M

There is a sliding bar at the bottom of the chart that can be moved forward/backward to show a greater or lesser time in history.

Seems $4.75 is long term support.

Really sad too see in graphic form, just how much of this chart traded between $4.75 to 5.75USD since 2006.

Ya, we may have received more in Canadian dollars, but the lower dollar didn't help us buy equipment, fertilizer, chems, seed, parts, etc.

[malleefarmer]

The #French #agricultural ministry put out their first 2021 production estimates for soft #wheat at 31.3MMT, compared to 39.5MMT in the 1920 season. This is down 20.8% YoY and is due to sizeable cuts to planted area and yield estimates following unfavorable early season weather.

[farming101]

Well, if I live by my self-imposed rules for charting, I have to say we are no longer on the road to negative wheat by Sept 2021. See WTI April 20, 2020.

Sept Chicago wheat currently 5.12 7/8

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Well, if I live by my self-imposed rules for charting, I have to say we are no longer on the road to negative wheat by Sept 2021. See WTI April 20, 2020.

Sept Chicago wheat currently 5.12 7/8

So, you are optimistic enough to confidently say that $0 might stop the free fall before then? Excellent news.

[farming101]

Yes, optimism abounds here today.
This doesn't change the stance that right now any moves higher are selling opportunities. But be patient. There may be more room above. All too early to call...need some confirmation of this baby step

[malleefarmer]

CBOT Sep wht up A$9.83/t & Dec up A$9.03. Wht fires up as prodn concerns emerged for Argentina where less wht than thought has been planted. Wht ylds lower than expected in nth Kansas & in Russia. Wht surplus excluding China under pressure. Sharp drop in French export forecasts.

Wheat should step up to $$275 plus on farm new crop. Doubt many will be foward selling at that.

More than a few pockets in oz turning dry early days yet plenty of time for upside errr or downside

[farming101]

Very positive price advances in Chicago wheat today. See if 5.38 ZWU holds into the close.
With possibly over 70% of the winter wheat harvest done in the US it is good to see a bit of strength.

[beaverdam]

$5.5075 ! I'd say she held all right !

What caused the big moves in wheat? that big corn sale ???

Sept and Dec Minneapolis wheat up $0.09USD

[helmsdale]

So, you are optimistic enough to confidently say that $0 might stop the free fall before then? Excellent news.

In this brave new world, even $0.00 doesnt provide a short term floor...

[helmsdale]

And on a side note... What the hell is this thread? How did we get derailed and start talking about commodities/ag in general?

[malleefarmer]

Found this , this morning 6.40 am currently

WASDE:

The world is awash with wheat with record stocks. However China is holding close to 52% of the global stockpile according to the USDA.

In all likelihood these stocks will not enter the global market.


Begs the question Errol macdon02 farming 101 does China actually physically own this wheat or on paper to a degree wheat purchased not received just a deal?

[malleefarmer]

CBOT Sept wht up A$21.32/t & Dec up A$9.79. Prices at 2 1/2 mth high after Egypt paid US$8/t more for Russian wht this week compared to last week. This is seen as signalling a rise in global wheat prices. There was also short covering by funds.