Don't Count on The Herd

[agstar77]

Latest study of 60000 recovered COVD-19 victims shows immunity may only last weeks. Absent of a miracle vaccine , sanitation may be the only course of action. Contact tracing and preventative measures may be the only hope. Of course it is just the flu.

[jazz]

Driving the death rate to around 0.013%. Sounds like herd immunity to me.

Unless you think an evolutionary process that has worked for billions of years isnt going to work this time. Have any scientific evidence to back that up? Thats a pretty big claim. Cause it happened in the other 3 recent corona strain related viruses, pig flu, SARS, MERS.

I suspect the herd immunity will kick in fully about Nov 4th or so.

[ajl]

I suspect the herd immunity will kick in fully about Nov 4th or so.

At least using Covid as a political football will die down then. After which we can get a handle on actual infection rates and outcomes. Until then, doubt pretty much everything being reported, especially new case numbers in Florida.

[agstar77]

At least using Covid as a political football will die down then. After which we can get a handle on actual infection rates and outcomes. Until then, doubt pretty much everything being reported, especially new case numbers in Florida.

Study reported in the Lancet medical journal with only 5 % of Spanish population showing significant antibodies.

[Blaithin]

Driving the death rate to around 0.013%. Sounds like herd immunity to me.

Unless you think an evolutionary process that has worked for billions of years isnt going to work this time. Have any scientific evidence to back that up? Thats a pretty big claim. Cause it happened in the other 3 recent corona strain related viruses, pig flu, SARS, MERS.

I suspect the herd immunity will kick in fully about Nov 4th or so.

But viruses are also trying to get one up in the evolutionary process so you can’t say just because we get immunity to most of them, we always will.

There’s no immunity for HIV. I’m sure there’s others as well. Herpes V1 and V2 don’t have immunity that I know of. Or it isn’t common anyway.

Mortality rate has nothing to do with immunity. Mortality is only based on deaths of those infected. If you can get infected multiple times than your chance of dying also multiplies. Especially if it’s a virus that does lasting damage. Why would you assume the mortality rate would drop in preceding infections, it could just as easily increase.

[jazz]

But viruses are also trying to get one up in the evolutionary process so you can’t say just because we get immunity to most of them, we always will.

There’s no immunity for HIV. I’m sure there’s others as well. Herpes V1 and V2 don’t have immunity that I know of. Or it isn’t common anyway.

Mortality rate has nothing to do with immunity. Mortality is only based on deaths of those infected. If you can get infected multiple times than your chance of dying also multiplies. Especially if it’s a virus that does lasting damage. Why would you assume the mortality rate would drop in preceding infections, it could just as easily increase.

Viruses are not alive, they do not evolve like we do. They co-opt your biological mechanism to replicate. In that process they sometimes mutate and, but usually attenuate and reach balance with the host population.

Immunity and a stalemate against an infection are two different things. Tuberculosis is never clear in people, it just becomes attenuated enough that your body keeps the viral load in check long term. Those people still test positive for the disease for decades and will never be free of it, but are also asymptomatic for that time as well and not infectious. The simian form of AIDS has already reached stalemate in that species and will in ours as well.

[15444]

So cute how worried you guys in the sticks are about WuFlu.

Looking beyond the fact that recent polls say 2/3 Canucks ready to lock down country again is cases go up again.

As if there isn't going to be a ****ing Depression when this is all done. Movie theaters, hotels, restaurants, tourist camps. Boom. Gone.

If kids don't go back to school this fall, we might as well start closing them as well. Move it all online.

Already in Manitoba, schools are deciding which 1/3 of the kids are going to be bused this fall. The rest will have to be dropped off each day by parents. Parents are pissed.

[sawfly1]

Jazz , did you have trouble with math
In school.
Based on the US right now.
Confirmed vs dead. It is running at
1.05 % not .013 % as you claim.
And that would assume that none
Of the 6 million not recovered will die
From it.
Donnie said 40 million tests have been
done ,10 million confirmed.
You are only out by a factor of 10
If no one else dies.
With your # s if every US citizen had
Contracted it , 320 million x .013 percent
= 41,600 deaths.
And now running at 130,000 already .
Back to remedial math for you.

[Blaithin]

Viruses are not alive, they do not evolve like we do. They co-opt your biological mechanism to replicate. In that process they sometimes mutate and, but usually attenuate and reach balance with the host population.

Immunity and a stalemate against an infection are two different things. Tuberculosis is never clear in people, it just becomes attenuated enough that your body keeps the viral load in check long term. Those people still test positive for the disease for decades and will never be free of it, but are also asymptomatic for that time as well and not infectious. The simian form of AIDS has already reached stalemate in that species and will in ours as well.

So if something doesn’t evolve as we do, it doesn’t evolve?

Oh dear.

Viruses carry genetic information, they reproduce and they are subject to natural selection, just as any other organism that evolves. Whether you call it evolution or mutation is rather irrelevant. A virus has one goal and that is to reproduce. In order to successfully reproduce, they must find new hosts. If a host develops antigens that inhibit the virus’ survival and reproduction that does not mean the virus dies off existence. If a mutation occurs that allows it to bypass antigens in some way so that it can once again survive and reproduce, then that mutation is going to most likely be highly successful. This is the process of evolution.

The fact that you can’t think of viruses that have managed this evolution does not mean they can’t.

[jazz]

Jazz , did you have trouble with math
In school.

I was off one decimal place 0.13%, half of the number Stanford published at the height of the pandemic in April. Take it up with them.

Death rate is still dropping no matter what the msm tells you. There are 8-10 times the undetected infections out there because this was active in the population months before it was even identified.

But let's just play devils advocate for a second. What do you propose we do? Lock down again? Say it's just the US you hate and you only want them to lock down and punish trump real good. Do you have any clue what would happen to the world and a country like ours if the number one economy failed? Not thinking.

[jazz]

So if something doesn’t evolve as we do, it doesn’t evolve?

Oh dear.

Viruses carry genetic information, they reproduce and they are subject to natural selection, just as any other organism that evolves. Whether you call it evolution or mutation is rather irrelevant. A virus has one goal and that is to reproduce. In order to successfully reproduce, they must find new hosts. If a host develops antigens that inhibit the virus’ survival and reproduction that does not mean the virus dies off existence. If a mutation occurs that allows it to bypass antigens in some way so that it can once again survive and reproduce, then that mutation is going to most likely be highly successful. This is the process of evolution.

The fact that you can’t think of viruses that have managed this evolution does not mean they can’t.

Viruses do not look for new hosts. They cant do that. They rely on you and I to spread it. And their goal is not to just reproduce and overwhelm their host because that would kill them too which would go against self preservation if they have any.

Their goal is to achieve stasis with their host. That involves an initial virulent phase which eventually attenuates. The virus actually weakens with mutations.

[sawfly1]

Jazz your math is still wrong.
Mine too , actually you were out 2
Decimal places.not 1.
AGAIN , lets use your new # which
Is 10 times what you said at first.
If the entire US population was infected.
Your % says there would be 416,000 deaths total.
You are already at 130,000 deaths with
10 million infected out of 320 million population.
32 x130,000 is a long way from 400,000.
And you still don't get it.

[farming101]

Jazz your math is still wrong.
Mine too , actually you were out 2
Decimal places.not 1.
AGAIN , lets use your new # which
Is 10 times what you said at first.
If the entire US population was infected.
Your % says there would be 416,000 deaths total.
You are already at 130,000 deaths with
10 million infected out of 320 million population.
32 x130,000 is a long way from 400,000.
And you still don't get it.

10 million infected already?

[jazz]

And you still don't get it.

Sawfly, covid and covid related. Big difference in the death totals. Semantics matter.

[Rareearth]

This is interesting and seems to be relevant