November Canola

[farmaholic]

Thanks 101, I would like to see the futures work a little more for me rather than using the positive basis to achieve the higher price.

[farmaholic]

Macdon02, that is beyond my comprehension.

[farming101]

If we see 676 soy my mentality will shift from sell every rally to weld the bin doors using options to reown multi year inventory. Upside target being $33. That's when i call Ritchie Bros.

Ha, by then a new pickup truck will be 200,000

I don't disagree that $7 beans are possible. I would say 2021 as early as April/May or at least by Nov.
It is a possibility anyway. Not a sure thing

[farming101]

In the mean time, canola has decided what to do after the July 8 up-down day.
Prices are up nicely today and have actually broken through some resistance.

Update: Friday closed lower. Not unexpected, as it often does, but not positive either.

[errolanderson]

Timing is not good. 50/50 or smaller chance for an intraday @490.

Farm deliveries were just under half a million tonnes for the week ended June 28. Haven't run out yet. If speculation pushes the futures higher I would watch for basis to deteriorate

Agree, old crop basis now at-risk.

USDA really didn’t throw any bone out yesterday. With the U.S. crop in such good condition, summer bulls may start to throw-in-the-towel . . . .

Trump admitting no Phase 2 deal, but what about Phase 1?

[farming101]

Looks like 484.30 has some special significance...the mark to beat. Could also be a double top, hope not

[vvalk]

Lethbridge still has $0 basis for November.

[farming101]

Lethbridge still has $0 basis for November.

23 under here

November closed a tick or two under the median line. Best close for the nearby since March 31 and a Friday too.

[farmaholic]

Lethbridge still has $0 basis for November.

Richardson's crush plant?

[vvalk]

Richardson's crush plant?

Yes. In fact they picked up $11 November targets so actually +$1.70 basis

[farmaholic]

Yes. In fact they picked up $11 November targets so actually +$1.70 basis

Are they other locals competitive?

[farmaholic]

Basis on delivered Yorkton Richardson crush is -$25 for fall off Nov

Delivered locally for fall off Nov ~-$50.....Yee-Yikes

Maybe some negotiating could improve those #'s.

[vvalk]

Are they other locals competitive?

I think so but not sure. I basically only sell to the crusher

[furrowtickler]

Just starting here , be patient

[farmaholic]

And I just priced some specialty canola the other day. My basis is locked in and its what really enhances the net price. So it's the futures that has to do the heavy lifting to make my price even better.

I did get a good price but....

I priced about 6 bu/ac. That is enough for now because even that is more than I ever did in the past. Usually waited til crop was in the bin. If futures continues to run and the crop looks like a sure thing I might do more. What are the chances of a harvest rally? We saw some canola fields that are losing their luster....finishing up flowering. I assume some southern Alberta canola is fully podded?