GDD and Crop Staging

[helmsdale]

Neighbor was over the other day and his daughter got married last year the last weekend in June. Got married on the farm with crop in the background for wedding photos. They were just looking through them and the wheat was just heading. It's the 13th of July, and we're at about the same stage now as we were last year. We're pushing 2 weeks behind!

I was going on peas the first week of August last year. There is NO WAY that is going to happen this year. If we're going the 3rd week of August that'll be about the soonest. July has been COLD! Next two weeks look to be below normal on the temperature side as well.

GDD (base 5*) - May 1 to yesterday: here i made 600 as of yesterday, but long term normal is about 675.

The crop certainly shows it. Durum isnt fully headed, and it was seeded late april. Wheat seeded beginning of may is about 25% headed. Peas are still highly vegetative, blooming, and just filling bottom pods.

What are other guys seeing?

Seen an article here the other day as well saying that NOAA has issued a "La Nina Watch". 50-55% chance of La Nina forming in the fall and lasting throughout the winter months. Also looking at NOAA seasonal outlooks for fall are certainly not looking conducive to a prolonged harvest season... It has to be a tragic train wreck for guys in this particular area not to get harvest off, but if we're behind schedule, Im hazarding a guess that areas further west and north are also behind? It's still pretty early to call, but what are guys feelings on whether this crop makes it to the bin this calendar year?

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2020-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-watch https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2020-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-watch

[helmsdale]

[furrowtickler]

It’s the same over the vast majority of western Canada , GDD is way down for May , June and now the first half of July . Lack of Sunspots tell the tail .
Areas north of here now have a slime chance of getting some crops to maturity before frost
Some will need a miracle .

[helmsdale]

[helmsdale]

If you take the base GDD 0* its not much better.

Sitting at 975, should be 1050

[helmsdale]

It’s the same over the vast majority of western Canada , GDD is way down for May , June and now the first half of July . Lack of Sunspots tell the tail .
Areas north of here now have a slime chance of getting some crops to maturity before frost
Some will need a miracle .

Kind of what I'm seeing anecdotally as well. Neighbors in laws are around Mundare and they are still trying to spray herbicide in crop... Its the middle of July...

[Sheepwheat]

A week behind for our area maybe? Some cereals just heading, canola just starting to get a bit yellow. But lots of cereals barely shot blade, lots of canola just starting to bolt. Peas just showing a few blossoms. Everything is tall, everything is thick.

If it stops raining, chance of a whopper around here. Hay and pasture kicked it up a notch with the near daily rains.

Always a fight to get to maturity in this area though, so nothing new at all. Red river valley moisture with Iqaluit heat units in this area makes it tough!

[blackpowder]

I've covered fairly large area looking at machinery this summer.
I concur on all crops. 1-2 weeks. Most look quite good from road however.

[biglentil]

Durum is turning and will be combining in road gear in 3 weeks.

[helmsdale]

Durum is turning and will be combining in road gear in 3 weeks.

Father in Law is 30ish miles away as the crow flies. Durum headed out at less than knee height with top third of the head already burnt out. Recent rains should likely plump up whats there, but his heavy gumbo has exhausted all the moisture reserves, so perhaps it wont last very long and he'll be in the same boat. Lots of Canola crops in his neighborhood that aren't going to make expenses...