Market pukes and everyone is quiet?

[Incognito]

Whats with that?

[charliep]

Just as a comment, I don't necessarily know the market is over rallying yet. Still a growing season of weather ahead of us with all the things that can happen.

On the other hand, I encourage everyone to have a hard core look at long term price charts. A favorite expression of mine that I heard from an experienced market analyst in 1988. High priced markets and airplanes have one thing in common. We've never left one up in the clouds yet. The other expression I like is bull markets have long tails.

The question in my mind is how farm managers make decisions in volatile markets. Thoughts?

[Incognito]

Sir Charles:

They phone the evil brokers (with big houses and cement ponds) to see what other farmers are doing and if Boone and I are holding are necks somewhere on Wellington Cr.

If no public hanging is taking place, they hold. If a hanging is announced, sell some seed for cash to make the trip and get front row seats.

[boone]

incognito: Arr matey or you can walk the plank on the good ship 'Orderly Marketing', 'caution' do not look out portholes to see if wheels have come off the market. A reformed pirate!

[TOM4CWB]

Boone;

If we begin the first pass with the plow, it is wrong to look back to correct the furrow.

I believe marketing is much the same.

When we know were wrong in a decision... it is because a good plan was not followed...

Marketing at a profit is the objective... risk can easily eat up profit, which is why a plan must be in place to cover the risk.

Especially when risk is greater by selling... than being patient... and reducing the selling/supply risk... a mistake is made!

[boone]

Tom4cwb: Is that your gentle way of telling us you couldn't get all the locks off the Canola bins last week?
You know I'm glad you brought up risk, because me thinks that will be one of the problems here after the board is gone, independents owning stocks from farmer to customer, may have a substantial carry risk. This would appear to me to widen out basis for us all, going forward. That could be very painfull. What are others thoughts.

[dnach]

I believe there may be very little canola left on farm?
Incog.. BTW when can a guy start to lock in wheat through Minn?

[Ration-Al]

You can lock in wheat right now. I heard last week that the fixed price option for spring wheat was 60 cents higher than the PRO.

[Incognito]

U sure learn alot around the board table eh Al!

[cropduster]

As to your first string Incog,am thinking we been trained to accept the social gospel of the CWB so "what, me worry?"As to your last string ,I can barely keep my fingers quiet........BURNNNNN as my kids would say.And here I thought all those SMART fellas did was play crib.I`ve got a poster made for Ritter`s accountability meeting(at Marengo) and I use the word TURNCOAT!!!!!!!!

[Incognito]

The meeting was last night in Marengo and was a non-event. 75 farmers eating supper and listening to the same old same old.

[Ration-Al]

It's on the website. PRO today is $5.47 for CWRS 13.5 and the fixed price is $5.82.

http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/fbpc-wheat-2004-mhrs-20040308.html


Fixed Price Contract and Basis Payment Contract
Current pricing schedule
Wheat (CWRS, CWES, CWXHW)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Effective: March 08, 2004 2 p.m. Winnipeg time
Expires: March 09, 2004 7:30 a.m. Winnipeg time
The next pricing schedule will be available at 2 p.m. Winnipeg time on March 09, 2004.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prices offered are based on the reference grades for CWRS, CWES and CWXHW, as per the "2004-05 Fixed Price Contract and Basis Payment Contract: Terms and Conditions", in store Vancouver or St. Lawrence, are:

$ US/bushel $ Cdn/tonne $ Cdn/bushel
Futures Prices - Minneapolis Hard Red Spring
December 2004 $4.07 $199.26 $5.42
March 2005 $4.06 $199.14 $5.42

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No. 1 CWES, February 23, 2004
(reference grade) PRO
$170.00 $4.63
Fixed Price $180.88 $4.92
December 2004 Basis -$18.38 -$0.50
March 2005 Basis -$18.26 -$0.50
No. 1 CWRS 13.5, February 23, 2004
(reference grade) PRO
$201.00 $5.47
Fixed Price $213.73 $5.82
December 2004 Basis $14.47 $0.39
March 2005 Basis $14.59 $0.40
No. 1 CWXHW 13.5, February 23, 2004
(reference grade) PRO
$201.00 $5.47
Fixed Price $213.73 $5.82
December 2004 Basis $14.47 $0.39
March 2005 Basis $14.59 $0.40

[Ration-Al]

And if you look back on the 1st of March the fixed price contract was $6.06 which is not exactly 60 cents higher than the PRO at $5.47 but it is close.

The topic of the post is "Market pukes and everyone is quiet?"

Wonder how many people locked in $6.06 last monday. Probably as many as locked in their canola that day, maybe less.

[Ration-Al]

By contrast the Ontario Wheat Board's cash price yesterday was $5.08 for Hard Red Spring Wheat for Oct/Nov/Dec delivery.

http://www.ontariowheatboard.com/Basis.html

Compare to CWB at $5.82. A $0.76 spread. If you equalized the freight the spread widens even more. In other words if a farmer from the praries were to deliver his wheat to the doorstep of the Ontario miller he would get the $5.82 plus freight from Thunder Bay to the mill in Ontario. That Ontario system sure is working guud.

[Incognito]

What is net in farmer's pocket. When do they get their cash and when do you get yours.

Ontario's price versus CWB price at your farm Al? Less all freight/handling.

get your speaking notes from Mr. White and then answer.