Please stop posting your yields on social media....

[macdon02]

It is incredibly naive to think a farmers post or twitter pic moves the price of grain. The trade knows the yield of crops fairly close. Satellite imagery, pre contracted amounts,targets and just a little observation tells everyone where the crop will be yield wise. Besides virtually everything is ultimately a derivative of corn or beans. A farmer in Kenaston showing a picture of a yield monitor is not going to move Chicago soybeans. The idea that if none of us said a word would send prices soaring is hilarious.

If you actually believe you have insight that the grain volumes reported are wrong you could make a fortune trading. Every year this discussion happens on here, and every year everyone seems to think yields are exaggerated and yet every year there is plenty of supply for all the elevators and all the canola crushers.

How did negative $4/bushel basis happen in '13 - '14? Because there was yield monitor pics all over Twitter that year and even the merchants were saying "I wish guys would shut their mouths" my yields are between my mouth and god's ears ever since. I can repost something from here and it's hitting Chinese grain traders monitors instantly, internet has changed EVERYTHING. My market info, reaches over 1200 active traders. Some are managing over $750 million. I have floor sources in Chi, NY, and all over. We are inconceivable naive to think everything stays "in house" this platform is valued at $15 million last i heard. Bucket is absolutely correct. Anyone can literally pickup the phone and call South Africa or Brazil and move mountains. This shit is real. You don't play paper when doing this, you do a Willard Sparks or Tom Ditmer, you lock it up from point A to point B, you secure the physical, the rail, the ocean freight and THEN you secure the sale to enduser. You pony up for good information, the ndvi, and every last morsel you can get your hands on. The grain robbery of '72 happened and Ditmer had an employee from kansas whose son was working AF intelligence, he was looking at sat shots of Russia and said, "Dad look at this, they got no wheat". The rest is history. Continental grain brokered that deal, and my mentor was in the board room. Absolute fluke i got hooked up with him, but he posted on NAT he was looking for 200 "boots on the ground" to network and teach. It was a life changer.

[Grahamp]

How did negative $4/bushel basis happen in '13 - '14? Because there was yield monitor pics all over Twitter that year and even the merchants were saying "I wish guys would shut their mouths" my yields are between my mouth and god's ears ever since. I can repost something from here and it's hitting Chinese grain traders monitors instantly, internet has changed EVERYTHING. My market info, reaches over 1200 active traders. Some are managing over $750 million. I have floor sources in Chi, NY, and all over. We are inconceivable naive to think everything stays "in house" this platform is valued at $15 million last i heard.

Lol. I don’t know whether you are serious or being sarcastic. The 2013 crop had the following factors.

1. Every single farmer I know hit a new high water mark for yield. There were grain bags, grain piles, grain rings etc. everywhere.
2. Farmers tried to sell the biggest crop in history. By October 2013 Yorkton Cargill was already telling people they weren’t buying anything that wasn’t contracted. (I was also trying to sell my personal record wheat crop.)
3. The worst rail movement in forever.
4. Farmers shared some pictures on Twitter.

Now you can believe that number 4 caused the basis to go to -$4 but I suspect 1-3 probably played a larger role.

[makar]

Just curious, I lived when the great grain robbery happened, and we think we can out smart the Russians never mind the chinese?

[blackpowder]

Lol. I don’t know whether you are serious or being sarcastic. The 2013 crop had the following factors.

1. Every single farmer I know hit a new high water mark for yield. There were grain bags, grain piles, grain rings etc. everywhere.
2. Farmers tried to sell the biggest crop in history. By October 2013 Yorkton Cargill was already telling people they weren’t buying anything that wasn’t contracted. (I was also trying to sell my personal record wheat crop.)
3. The worst rail movement in forever.
4. Farmers shared some pictures on Twitter.

Now you can believe that number 4 caused the basis to go to -$4 but I suspect 1-3 probably played a larger role.

I partially agree.
But I believe Macdon is right all the same.
My crop was sold well before harvest that year. Mostly delivered Oct.
Remember wheat is 90% politics.

[macdon02]

Lol. I don’t know whether you are serious or being sarcastic. The 2013 crop had the following factors.

1. Every single farmer I know hit a new high water mark for yield. There were grain bags, grain piles, grain rings etc. everywhere.
2. Farmers tried to sell the biggest crop in history. By October 2013 Yorkton Cargill was already telling people they weren’t buying anything that wasn’t contracted. (I was also trying to sell my personal record wheat crop.)
3. The worst rail movement in forever.
4. Farmers shared some pictures on Twitter.

Now you can believe that number 4 caused the basis to go to -$4 but I suspect 1-3 probably played a larger role.

Believe what you want. Info travels. There's roughly 275 million ~ bushels of corn blown over last week according to ndvi. It's not enough to get bullish over. Keep your mouth shut and no harm is done. What's the incentive of posting good yields? How exactly does a farmer get paid more, or less taken, by posting? Public forums are totally inaccurate but nothing is gained embellishing or lying. Turns into a measuring contest on who can pull back harder on the stick. No gain only loss.

[malleefarmer]

Agree with embellishing lying on both side of ledger, some post best and talk it up even though average will be lower and opposite other talk it down and get more neither achieves a lot.

I post pics on here of good bad occasional ugly.
Nothing to do with bravado just interest for you guys.

Currently any trader knows the trend at this point in growing year Southern Hemisphere harvest trends northern hemisphere. Regardless of social media.

A guy from cargills calls in once a year around the same week each year during grain fill nothing to hide or gain but talking shit to him calls in on about 100 plus farmers over 3 weeks

[SASKFARMER]

So 15 to 20 isnt worth posting for Canola or HRS?

It's a bumper hahahahaha

Just like the last bumper that never was.

First wheat off in our area compared to last few years it's 40% below.

[GALAXIE500]

So 15 to 20 isnt worth posting for Canola or HRS?

It's a bumper hahahahaha

Just like the last bumper that never was.

First wheat off in our area compared to last few years it's 40% below.

My avg pea yield this year was about 14 bu /acre ( hail didn't do us any favours), so it is not anything to brag about. 10miles north and east of me I talked to one guy who said Hutts are getting 2-3 bpa peas on rented land ! you want bad , that is bad fellas. Old mother nature always bats last. FYI that land with the poor yield was "organically farmed" a few years back, you should have seen the mess he left behind.

[bigzee]

It doesn’t matter the yields, 90% of farmers tend to sell into a falling market ... its called “panic selling”. The other 10% leave grain in bin hoping to win 6-49 without even buy a ticket.

[jazz]

What is the difference between a couple hundred farmers posting yeilds and a couple hundred crop tour people walking fields before harvest?

That crop tour data is relied on quite heavily by the trade from what I can see. Same thing, the trader are always looking for any advantage they can. And as soon as guys firesale it off the combine, the terminals will know too. Probably already happening.

Pre-booking sales and selling off the combine are like showing your hand before the game has even started.