Please stop posting your yields on social media....

[blackpowder]

Believe me, when you start paying crop share rents, you stop telling anybody what you're doing.

[malleefarmer]

Re export sales yep we know what’s going out here price unknown but tonnages yep.

Ship bookings known and tenders for shipp8ng slots known. Dates quality quantity.

Even domestic shipping known not that it happens a lot.

What’s in every elevator tonnes quality daily r3cievels etc

We’re sure do things different here.

Grain is have scouts surveys satellite imagery they know within a few % of what’s out there.

[Grahamp]

It is incredibly naive to think a farmers post or twitter pic moves the price of grain. The trade knows the yield of crops fairly close. Satellite imagery, pre contracted amounts,targets and just a little observation tells everyone where the crop will be yield wise. Besides virtually everything is ultimately a derivative of corn or beans. A farmer in Kenaston showing a picture of a yield monitor is not going to move Chicago soybeans. The idea that if none of us said a word would send prices soaring is hilarious.

If you actually believe you have insight that the grain volumes reported are wrong you could make a fortune trading. Every year this discussion happens on here, and every year everyone seems to think yields are exaggerated and yet every year there is plenty of supply for all the elevators and all the canola crushers.

[bucket]

It is incredibly naive to think a farmers post or twitter pic moves the price of grain. The trade knows the yield of crops fairly close. Satellite imagery, pre contracted amounts,targets and just a little observation tells everyone where the crop will be yield wise. Besides virtually everything is ultimately a derivative of corn or beans. A farmer in Kenaston showing a picture of a yield monitor is not going to move Chicago soybeans. The idea that if none of us said a word would send prices soaring is hilarious.

If you actually believe you have insight that the grain volumes reported are wrong you could make a fortune trading. Every year this discussion happens on here, and every year everyone seems to think yields are exaggerated and yet every year there is plenty of supply for all the elevators and all the canola crushers.

Well someone at a so called respected marketing firm did a field survey prior to a heat wave without any rain and western canada is producing a monster crop....so yeah I am a little concerned with yield monitors linked to the WWW and people doing quick calculation with algorithms and moving markets....

Everyone talks about technology...So when the drill says how much fertilizer went down with the seed and someone is correlating the rainfall for the area.....our info is then confirmed with the yield monitors....would it be wise to continue to give the info for free??????

[Rareearth]

Agree Grahamp, statscan, rain fall, etc individual reports without correlation = 0 value to any one

Larry is working hard with NDVI, he’s not the only one, and that’s not a perfected system yet

Siri likely has a good idea what yields are

[farmaholic]

Bayer called one day and asked how I managed my data and if I wanted to join their program for about 1500$ for the acres we farm.

Shouldn't someone be paying me for that sort of info?

I told them there is too much free data floating around already and told them I'm not interested.

I'm sure the data is safe with them and has no value what so ever..... that's why we have to pay them to take it.

[TSIPP]

In 2004 I planted oats, 1 bushel an acre and in the fall I doubled my seed, hows that for bragging?
Wife and kids had to go barefoot that winter.

[bigzee]

It doesn’t really matter how good or bad the crops are. Prices seem to drift down even when yields are well below average. Canada could have a disaster and the rest of the world makes up the difference.
Getting harder every year to get ahead.

[macdon02]

It is incredibly naive to think a farmers post or twitter pic moves the price of grain. The trade knows the yield of crops fairly close. Satellite imagery, pre contracted amounts,targets and just a little observation tells everyone where the crop will be yield wise. Besides virtually everything is ultimately a derivative of corn or beans. A farmer in Kenaston showing a picture of a yield monitor is not going to move Chicago soybeans. The idea that if none of us said a word would send prices soaring is hilarious.

If you actually believe you have insight that the grain volumes reported are wrong you could make a fortune trading. Every year this discussion happens on here, and every year everyone seems to think yields are exaggerated and yet every year there is plenty of supply for all the elevators and all the canola crushers.

How did negative $4/bushel basis happen in '13 - '14? Because there was yield monitor pics all over Twitter that year and even the merchants were saying "I wish guys would shut their mouths" my yields are between my mouth and god's ears ever since. I can repost something from here and it's hitting Chinese grain traders monitors instantly, internet has changed EVERYTHING. My market info, reaches over 1200 active traders. Some are managing over $750 million. I have floor sources in Chi, NY, and all over. We are inconceivable naive to think everything stays "in house" this platform is valued at $15 million last i heard. Bucket is absolutely correct. Anyone can literally pickup the phone and call South Africa or Brazil and move mountains. This shit is real. You don't play paper when doing this, you do a Willard Sparks or Tom Ditmer, you lock it up from point A to point B, you secure the physical, the rail, the ocean freight and THEN you secure the sale to enduser. You pony up for good information, the ndvi, and every last morsel you can get your hands on. The grain robbery of '72 happened and Ditmer had an employee from kansas whose son was working AF intelligence, he was looking at sat shots of Russia and said, "Dad look at this, they got no wheat". The rest is history. Continental grain brokered that deal, and my mentor was in the board room. Absolute fluke i got hooked up with him, but he posted on NAT he was looking for 200 "boots on the ground" to network and teach. It was a life changer.

[Grahamp]

How did negative $4/bushel basis happen in '13 - '14? Because there was yield monitor pics all over Twitter that year and even the merchants were saying "I wish guys would shut their mouths" my yields are between my mouth and god's ears ever since. I can repost something from here and it's hitting Chinese grain traders monitors instantly, internet has changed EVERYTHING. My market info, reaches over 1200 active traders. Some are managing over $750 million. I have floor sources in Chi, NY, and all over. We are inconceivable naive to think everything stays "in house" this platform is valued at $15 million last i heard.

Lol. I don’t know whether you are serious or being sarcastic. The 2013 crop had the following factors.

1. Every single farmer I know hit a new high water mark for yield. There were grain bags, grain piles, grain rings etc. everywhere.
2. Farmers tried to sell the biggest crop in history. By October 2013 Yorkton Cargill was already telling people they weren’t buying anything that wasn’t contracted. (I was also trying to sell my personal record wheat crop.)
3. The worst rail movement in forever.
4. Farmers shared some pictures on Twitter.

Now you can believe that number 4 caused the basis to go to -$4 but I suspect 1-3 probably played a larger role.

[makar]

Just curious, I lived when the great grain robbery happened, and we think we can out smart the Russians never mind the chinese?

[blackpowder]

Lol. I don’t know whether you are serious or being sarcastic. The 2013 crop had the following factors.

1. Every single farmer I know hit a new high water mark for yield. There were grain bags, grain piles, grain rings etc. everywhere.
2. Farmers tried to sell the biggest crop in history. By October 2013 Yorkton Cargill was already telling people they weren’t buying anything that wasn’t contracted. (I was also trying to sell my personal record wheat crop.)
3. The worst rail movement in forever.
4. Farmers shared some pictures on Twitter.

Now you can believe that number 4 caused the basis to go to -$4 but I suspect 1-3 probably played a larger role.

I partially agree.
But I believe Macdon is right all the same.
My crop was sold well before harvest that year. Mostly delivered Oct.
Remember wheat is 90% politics.