Pea yields

[dave4441]

Well our locked in 7.25 is ok but not great the price since the market knows yield is now no bid or 6.18.

Yep over a dollar a bushel drop.

Farming is such a winning combination.

This issue in the pea market is demand. People have no bid because today there is simply zero demand. Its not because the exporters want to buy it cheaper and make a $1/bu. It will change and get better but no traditional demand off the combine like other years. I do think maybe COVID has slowed the chain in China. But a few months from now likely better. What i do know though is India's current crop has good monsoon weather which likely means no change on their demand. And Tarrifs/bans will remain in place. Indian bought 2 Million MT in 2016 and 120,000 MT in 2019-20 crop year. This is the issue. But in 2016 China took 1 MMT and last year 2.5 MMT. So they will come back into the market, just not yet.

Hard to understand what the market is doing when you simply frame the market as trying to F--k you.

[furrowtickler]

This issue in the pea market is demand. People have no bid because today there is simply zero demand. Its not because the exporters want to buy it cheaper and make a $1/bu. It will change and get better but no traditional demand off the combine like other years. I do think maybe COVID has slowed the chain in China. But a few months from now likely better. What i do know though is India's current crop has good monsoon weather which likely means no change on their demand. And Tarrifs/bans will remain in place. Indian bought 2 Million MT in 2016 and 120,000 MT in 2019-20 crop year. This is the issue. But in 2016 China took 1 MMT and last year 2.5 MMT. So they will come back into the market, just not yet.

Hard to understand what the market is doing when you simply frame the market as trying to F--k you.

What’s your take on the China situation?

[furrowtickler]

1.2 billion people ....

https://www.nexusnewsfeed.com/article/geopolitics/china-s-flood-of-woes-gets-worse/

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Hard to understand what the market is doing when you simply frame the market as trying to F--k you.

Yes, but that attitude, and presenting facts and showing supply and demand, won't earn you as many likes...
Thanks for the rational input.

[farmaholic]

Can't deny demand does sometimes dry up but you can't deny harvest prices are "typically" low to take advangage of forced producer movement. There are times harvest prices are the high but I would bet its the exception not the rule.

If you need to move grain in fall....maybe plan ahead and price some when you see a price you can live with. Hard to believe that came off my keyboard.

[dave4441]

What’s your take on the China situation?

They are extremely patient buyers and they see market coming down so waiting. Likely they will wait to long though. Some people feel they have lots of product backed up (landed in china) and available to their internal market and just don't need to buy. I am not sure but i wouldn't aggressively sell yellow peas today. Green peas are a different issue. Acreage has increased year after year after year and i think this year it will be tough at times to see a premium to yellow peas. For the whole year. Hope I am wrong and something changes this but looks to be 2X supply then needed. This isn't yield based comment it is acreage based.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

How else to ration the supply coming in the door, except with price?
The only other option is to let Chuck and gang tell you how much to bring and when, again.

[furrowtickler]

How else to ration the supply coming in the door, except with price?
The only other option is to let Chuck and gang tell you how much to bring and when, again.

Or that we all only need 1500 ac farms and everything must be sold through the collective so no one ever gets ahead of thy neighbour

That’s the mentality in a nut shell

[SASKFARMER]

Yea Dave demand is gone funny China is looking for and buying grain all over the world yet shit hole canada cant get a sale. In this 2020 market maybe look at the big picture it’s not about marketing it’s about others waiting to pick us off at pennies on the dollar then resell and make money. Canada is a shit hole wake up. Plus name one Country that Actually respects our leadership?

[the big wheel]

This issue in the pea market is demand. People have no bid because today there is simply zero demand. Its not because the exporters want to buy it cheaper and make a $1/bu. It will change and get better but no traditional demand off the combine like other years. I do think maybe COVID has slowed the chain in China. But a few months from now likely better. What i do know though is India's current crop has good monsoon weather which likely means no change on their demand. And Tarrifs/bans will remain in place. Indian bought 2 Million MT in 2016 and 120,000 MT in 2019-20 crop year. This is the issue. But in 2016 China took 1 MMT and last year 2.5 MMT. So they will come back into the market, just not yet.

Hard to understand what the market is doing when you simply frame the market as trying to F--k you.

Not hard to understand over a buck loss it’s a fk job we have no clout over the buyers. This debate has been had what is the actual price that the buyers from us are getting? Nobody knows!!

[furrowtickler]

Yea Dave demand is gone funny China is looking for and buying grain all over the world yet shit hole canada cant get a sale. In this 2020 market maybe look at the big picture it’s not about marketing it’s about others waiting to pick us off at pennies on the dollar then resell and make money. Canada is a shit hole wake up. Plus name one Country that Actually respects our leadership?

Macaroon from France maybe

[Rareearth]

Harvest low prices is normal in every farming region in the world I would think. It’s not the exporters, railways or any other market participants, that’s how the markets work with supply and demand.

Dave I would subscribe to your “ news and views newsletter “ if you were to get into that game.
Thanks for your postings

[sumdumguy]

It could be worse. We could be waiting in line to fill our 2 bushel quota, knowing that we might not see another quota before Xmas.

[Grahamp]

It could be worse. We could be waiting in line to fill our 2 bushel quota, knowing that we might not see another quota before Xmas.

Lol talk to an old timer about LIFT

[SASKFARMER]

Boys I remember lift we bought pasture and was able to move grain. Sucked.

But reality is China is buying all over the world and paying and canada well we’re stuck in reverse.

Yes big crop big deliveries big bills no storage etc.

Yea it’s all a joke and deep down you all know it.

Peas drop over a dollar yep that’s normal