Canola Puts

[farming101]

It erecting comets about seeded acres ...now how does the derecho episode fit into the math of 37 million acres affected?

Wouldn't that be a black Swan event usually?

It would seem evident that the derecho wind that hit Iowa and also other states was the trigger for the latest rebound in corn prices. Storm date was Aug 10-11, corn prices began to rise Aug 12.

Corn condition in Iowa has tumbled from 73% good to excellent in early August to 50% G-E in the last report.

One estimate says 200-400 million bushels could be lost? This would not include stocks damaged or lost from storage that was destroyed.
https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/business/derecho-latest-test-for-farmers-in-trump-country-20200823 https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/business/derecho-latest-test-for-farmers-in-trump-country-20200823

The latest WASDE issued before the storm was forecasting a national corn crop of 15.278 billion bu

Noteworthy is the drop in corn use since the pandemic started. Estimates of Mar - May corn disappearance is the lowest for this quarter of the crop year since 2012-13.

[Oliver88]

Errol....a question...

Anyone monitoring Canadian sales of grain in any kind of open fashion that the USDA reports daily?

While I realize the pricing model comes from the american market wouldn't it be prudent in a so called "open market" in Canada that sales reporting of Canadian grain would help the farmers, graincos, etc make for a more efficient system??????

Monster crop but no one knows how its moving or where or when....has 2013 disaster written all over it...except for not much else is moving on rails ...

Viterra is predicting 20MMT production for canola. This equals 44.5 bpa.

Reasonable?

[bucket]

Viterra is predicting 20MMT production for canola. This equals 44.5 bpa.

Reasonable?

Dont know but what is on their sales book?

It's mandatory in the states to report their sales...

[macdon02]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eg7lc3SXgAEUqgc?format=png&name=small

Maybe ....

[biglentil]

Viterra is predicting 20MMT production for canola. This equals 44.5 bpa.

Reasonable?

Some coming off now 25bpa canola around here, stand is shit and pods half full. Good news no sprayer ruts.

[farming101]

Update on the put values

[crusher]

Scouting some canola for preharvest spray in the pickup. Drove half way across the field to get to any plants. I did that on 3 fields. 50 last year, lucky for 30 this year.

[TOM4CWB]

Scouting some canola for preharvest spray in the pickup. Drove half way across the field to get to any plants. I did that on 3 fields. 50 last year, lucky for 30 this year.

I feel your pain Crusher! I have NOT seen Canola crops this short in Edmonton area since 2002...

Even our Soybeans are 30% drowned out... and the rest are not pretty... will be interesting to see how they do this year... if frost holds off...

[errolanderson]

With the recent canola rally . . . Hedgers note: January canola $520/MT put options now trading for $13/MT today.

Jan canola strike price $520/MT - put option premium $13/MT = $507/MT ($11.50/bu) - fall delivered basis. Tool for those want to protect recent futures gains without production/delivery commitment.

[Guest]

Viterra is predicting 20MMT production for canola. This equals 44.5 bpa.

Reasonable?

ABSOLUTE FU-KIN HORSESHIT (sorry horse)