Wheat

[malleefarmer]

West australia here most likely will cut 2 million tonne from total grain, wheat barley canola.

Bal@nced out by extra in south andceast australia no change to total australian estimates

[farming101]

Differences out there as to the closing price for Dec20 Chicago. CME says 6.1925 so seeing as how it's their exchange guess I'll go with that. Which put it above the 6.1825 I mentioned last week.
A reset today.
Kansas took control again. MW followed.
I am thinking MW may follow Kansas lock step. Maybe on the way up anyway. It might give up more on the way down.
MW still has carry in every month so if storage is not a problem and cash is not a problem everything else equal there is of course some money in selling the deferred. But it's getting less and less.
Maybe comes down to how much is it worth to get some moved before next summer.
Looks like spreads between Dec bids and July 21 bids have narrowed about 10 cents since early Sept.
Basis through all months out to July 21 are more or less level.

Chicago has major resistance around 6.28 Dec. Kansas has more room to go higher and MW seeing as how it is the laggard has the most room to move higher. MW went through some minor resistance today.

Demand should be good for the time being. 45 ships out west. 18 were sent off this past week but 20 arrived!

[malleefarmer]

Futures rise currency down equated to about $14.10 risein aust wheat prices.

Traders lifted between $11.50 and 12.10. Not to bad a little erosion of basis.

Some pulled all bids ie not posting prices today

Barley up about $5 so about right with normal spread betweennwheat and barley.

Guess you guys se3n similar moves today with your cash spot prices

[farming101]

Well, just like that, here we are 6.28 ZWZ. It's been an interesting week....

[errolanderson]

Well, just like that, here we are 6.28 ZWZ. It's been an interesting week....

Front month Chicago wheat now at a six (6) year high . . . .

[bucket]

Front month Chicago wheat now at a six (6) year high . . . .

Can't you add some of your usual doom and gloom to that somehow....have a mars/snickers bar ...you are not yourself...


Let me help you....These are 1970s wheat prices and not adjusted for inflation...

[Rareearth]

The questions should be,
-how do we lock in these prices? Exporters, or usa exchanges
- how far into the future ?
- currency hedge at the same time?


I remember $14 canola not many years ago. Looking back, what was the best strategy to sell physical, own paper, how many years, what floor and ceiling prices etc ? Land prices are fixed, mortgage rates ? Fertilizer and fuel, is there a effective way to hedge with out mortgaging more to cover trading accounts? Doing all this could one see 20% return on investment?

[errolanderson]

The questions should be,
-how do we lock in these prices? Exporters, or usa exchanges
- how far into the future ?
- currency hedge at the same time?


I remember $14 canola not many years ago. Looking back, what was the best strategy to sell physical, own paper, how many years, what floor and ceiling prices etc ? Land prices are fixed, mortgage rates ? Fertilizer and fuel, is there a effective way to hedge with out mortgaging more to cover trading accounts? Doing all this could one see 20% return on investment?

Personally, still believe Minneapolis may be the sleeper as it has been heavily discounted to Chicago. If drought conditions persist in Black Sea and Texas, there will be a focus to increase spring wheat acres. One strategy is sell your cash CWRS and replace with MWE calls to re-open your price ceiling. This strategy limits your risk exposure to the cost of the call option, plus generates cashflow. But if MWE blows higher, you are on-board.

Grains are the hottest sector in the commodity world right now . . . .

[Rareearth]

On the same topic, sort of.

This past spring a person could buy diesel about .50 cents per litre, today .90 ish.

Hind sight, Cash, tank infrastructure etc that would have been a good buy / investment etc

Sometimes the best returns are on the expense side of the business not on the commodity sale

[errolanderson]

On the same topic, sort of.

This past spring a person could buy diesel about .50 cents per litre, today .90 ish.

Hind sight, Cash, tank infrastructure etc that would have been a good buy / investment etc

Sometimes the best returns are on the expense side of the business not on the commodity sale

'Defense wins championships' and business no different . . . cut costs, reduce debt load, price risk management.

[Oliver88]

Personally, still believe Minneapolis may be the sleeper as it has been heavily discounted to Chicago. If drought conditions persist in Black Sea and Texas, there will be a focus to increase spring wheat acres. One strategy is sell your cash CWRS and replace with MWE calls to re-open your price ceiling. This strategy limits your risk exposure to the cost of the call option, plus generates cashflow. But if MWE blows higher, you are on-board.

Grains are the hottest sector in the commodity world right now . . . .

Interesting idea.

[furrowtickler]

Personally, still believe Minneapolis may be the sleeper as it has been heavily discounted to Chicago. If drought conditions persist in Black Sea and Texas, there will be a focus to increase spring wheat acres. One strategy is sell your cash CWRS and replace with MWE calls to re-open your price ceiling. This strategy limits your risk exposure to the cost of the call option, plus generates cashflow. But if MWE blows higher, you are on-board.

Grains are the hottest sector in the commodity world right now . . . .

I just hope the grains bonanza relates to increased farm gates , even if just for a bit