Seasonal Canola

[farming101]

Definitely a counter seasonal year. Where are we going? If I knew that I would only go farming on sunny warmish days with a light breeze. The rest of the time the hired help could slug it out.
Short crop long tail does come to mind. The second chart shows that in 2002 and 2010(both lousy years) crop prices peaked late in the calendar year, Nov 27 and Dec 22 respectively, and then in the new calendar year the peak price was attained early in the year, Jan 8 and Feb 9 respectively.
So, looking at prices now and the news that there is demand for canola, realize that the demand will be filled or the demand will go away at some point. Where will prices be when that happens. I have no idea. This flash drought/extra heat for some parts has the trade concerned about the crop right now.

[furrowtickler]

Thanks for putting up that first chart again
It is following the trend .
That first time you put that up confirmed what some of us have been saying . Lots of unknowns but looks ok for now 👍

[Rareearth]

Interesting 101,
Bottom chart showing higher highs, with resistance at roughly 510ish close to where we are now, then next resistance 600 ???
As for demand getting filled, it’s hand to mouth and the tummy’s are empty with USA soy, canola, and other oils not have a great production year. The question should be who or what country is next in the production cycle can produce a above average crop to elevate the need for higher prices, I thinks it’s South America, so what are there production prospects? I’m sure many will suggest bumper, record production etc we will find out once they start harvesting and shipping. If prices continue to firm then we will be in for a good ride. After South America soy harvest where is the next oil seed harvest of any significance? Canada next sept, usa next oct?

[beaverdam]

Thanks for posting 101.
Basis is another factor though, steadily widening the last ten days.
Kicking my self real hard for not locking in basis, but my canola is still a week away and with all this wind, I'm still not sure what I'll be able to deliver as we're already losing some to shelling in the standing, and the swaths have also blown around.
Timing for me, if it would have came in sooner, I might already be hauling it out, especially the straight cut grain.

[beaverdam]

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

midwest continues to dry out, little rain forecast for next two weeks. Is the small seeded/smaller yield canola driving canola higher or is it the whole veggie oilseed market? Can't see many beans harvested in our area, no rain in July and no rain in Aug.

[Rareearth]

Still looks to me like canola bins were empty, or all sold waiting delivery for August just prior to new crop. So the stocks that were remaining should be the new floor that crushers require prior to new crop.

[Guest]

good thread
wonder why chuck never comments on these?

[furrowtickler]

good thread
wonder why chuck never comments on these?

Far too worried about trump and fabricated climate charts

[Oliver88]

Frost pushed November canola up $7/tonne today.

Will it continue?

[Rareearth]

Possibly,
Short covering, shorting farmers, with a short crop

[Guest]

lots of speculators got caught with pants down
everyone on here knew there was no carryover
elevators all over couldn't fill trains
sooner or later it had to catch up with their creative accounting

[Jay-mo]

11$ targets got picked up here in Manitoba this morning. Crops looking not too bad but just barely started into the canola. Over a dollar higher then last fall, hard not to just say screw it and truck it straight to town.

[Rareearth]

Brazilian Soybean Shortage Upends Seasonal Marketing: A Brazilian soybean shortage has flipped the seasonal marketing pattern upside down. DTN lead analyst Todd Hultman tells Brownfield the soybean market is challenging its highs for the year when it normally bottoms out going into harvest. “Typically Brazil has plenty of soybean supplies coming off a big harvest as they had earlier this year, and we would expect them to keep exporting at least deeply into the fall. But that wasn’t the case. They actually ran low on supplies earlier than usual, and that was signaled by the higher prices that we saw in Brazil in late July.” He says there is still a lot of downside risk and encourages producers to consider both old and new crop sales. Hultman says while Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans are surging, China is still woefully below targets set in the phase one trade agreement.

[farming101]

Jan canola challenging resistance this am. Closes over 519.50 needed.
RSI14 @ 79.99

[furrowtickler]

Thank you for keeping on track on this commodify marketing thread 👍👍