Seasonal Canola

[farmaholic]

A bit sauer (sour) for a Friday.

As Bart would say to Moe. I'd like to speak with Hugandkiss, first name Amanda. Always ended with, you little rat bastard, but poisonous snakes, really!

I'm waiting for beans in the teens to develop. I'll take that to the bank.

Not much late rain around here to help the soybean fields. Some guys say they're quitting growing them.

Probably would have done better with canola.

[bucket]

Welcome analytical thoughts from the curmudgeon who doesn't grow it. I will take this insight right to the bank! Then I will hug and kiss some poisonous snakes.

Call me what you want....I would be a seller between 11.75 and 12....

The system is empty ....every elevator looking for canola....it froze and what you think canola is worth 9 bucks?

[jazz]

Just got into some today. Yeilds look to be down 10bu from last few yrs. Just too much late season heat, warm nights and no rainfall for the month of august.

But good news, its dry this time. Should be easy to store for whatever market signal you want to wait for. If its $11 off the combine it will be $14 in the spring.

[bucket]

Everyone says the bpa is off and no where near the expectation of what they put in for groceries ....

20 mmt becomes 18mmt pretty quick with the cuts most have talked about...

Everyone can listen to Neil Townsend estimate from mid July if they want. ...he was/is wrong....

[farmaholic]

Just got into some today. Yeilds look to be down 10bu from last few yrs. Just too much late season heat, warm nights and no rainfall for the month of august.

But good news, its dry this time. Should be easy to store for whatever market signal you want to wait for. If its $11 off the combine it will be $14 in the spring.

.......so much for the premium on already priced Speciialty canola.

[bucket]

.......so much for the premium on already priced Speciialty canola.

The last time I grew nexera. ...years ago....by the time I got to haul it , regular canola was worth more.....


That was the end of growing specialty canola .....just a phuck around.....

[farmaholic]

The last time I grew nexera. ...years ago....by the time I got to haul it , regular canola was worth more.....


That was the end of growing specialty canola .....just a phuck around.....

It can happen. But I have lots left to price yet.

Beans will probably determine where canola prices will end up.

[bucket]

It can happen. But I have lots left to price yet.

Beans will probably determine where canola prices will end up.

It's been over a decade since I grew it. ....I am sure yield drag and pricing are better now....I can not participate in the rich man's game of growing any canola. ....too much money involved....

[bucket]

Kraut...

Here are few factors to consider.....

1. The derecho event affected 37 million of farmland
2. Its been dry in the states...bad for soybean yields
3. Canola is priced off soybeans and they are moving higher...
4. There has been a hard frost on many acres of canola.
5. the yields are not proving out on canola this year...
6. Elevators are focusing on canola deliveries for the next couple of weeks in the southern prairies....
7. Provincial crop report put canola at 35 BPA... lower than previous expectation of 41 BPA...thats a reduction of nearly 20 percent...


Positive or negative?????/

[jazz]

Bucket, there may be some near term bump in canola trying to entice selling but that tells me they are trying to get ahead of a problem down the road. I suspect the trade is playing us here. Best thing we could do is to starve it for 6 months. There is no alternative supply of that crop. We hold the hammer and this is the yr we should use it.

[bucket]

Bucket, there may be some near term bump in canola trying to entice selling but that tells me they are trying to get ahead of a problem down the road. I suspect the trade is playing us here. Best thing we could do is to starve it for 6 months. There is no alternative supply of that crop. We hold the hammer and this is the yr we should use it.

Agreed....forgot to mention the backlog of vessels on the west coast waiting for canola since mid august?

I think the graincos trying to pull southern canola is for their benefit of blending at west coast for the impending wreck up north...

[wmoebis]

Agreed....forgot to mention the backlog of vessels on the west coast waiting for canola since mid august?

I think the graincos trying to pull southern canola is for their benefit of blending at west coast for the impending wreck up north...

How can there be vessels waiting on coast when crop isn't even in the bin yet? Thought that only happened when the railroads didn't deliver now that the CWB is gone and it isn't their fault any more. Must be farmers fault for not getting the crop off and selling already.

[bucket]

How can there be vessels waiting on coast when crop isn't even in the bin yet? Thought that only happened when the railroads didn't deliver now that the CWB is gone and it isn't their fault any more. Must be farmers fault for not getting the crop off and selling already.

The paper carryover hasn't materialized into the physical carryover.....everything looks good on paper....Neil Townsend is a perfect example.....spends zero time on a combine but still believes his 42 BPA estimate on canola....35bpa published by Saskag take another 2 percent off for dockage....

[Oliver88]

Agreed....forgot to mention the backlog of vessels on the west coast waiting for canola since mid august?

I think the graincos trying to pull southern canola is for their benefit of blending at west coast for the impending wreck up north...

If canola is at port by mid-August this would have to be old crop canola.

[bucket]

If canola is at port by mid-August this would have to be old crop canola.

Exactly and the boats are now waiting for new crop....the carryover wasn't there and statscan has 2 years to doctor the numbers....at the expense of farmers...

I am no expert and will gladly admit it but when farmers north of Edmonton are not growing their 50bpa plus crops ....where are you going to average the crop to what the experts are predicting...this is all really simple math....it for sure is not rocket science like statscan and guys like Townsend try to make it...

Disclaimer....I have never seen my yield average higher at the end of a field than when I start it....even though through out the field I see triple digits.....at the end its always lower...and then when delivering to the elevator which is the only yield monitor that matters ...lower yet...