Seasonal Canola

[TASFarms]

Most experts guessing yields have about as much a clue about crop yields as the retired school teacher hail adjusters ...... nearly zero .
A good example of how very little they know about plant growth.......
After the big hail storm hit this area the damage was very evident on most crops . I could tell within two days what damage was going to be .
Later when the three wisemen from Coop hail came out and did their assessment based on their acute knowledge based on science lol , we had a discussion. That’s where they got taught a lesson about real life agronomy . They did not like it but I was not backing down . They left here not happy going across 20 1/4’s a second time .
They still came back a bit low , but I proved my point and signed off .
Point is when the combines got going , the yield data shows exactly what we seen as damage from day one . Yields drop off Nearly exactly as the plant damage showed within days of that hail. They felt they paid too much , well they were dead wrong , they were still 10% low on average so far .
Point is not everyone is an “expert” as they claim and as many have pointed out here , realities in the combine are proving that .
Yes some areas have very good yields , but that’s the same as every year. But there are many areas where as seen by on here that prove Mother Nature has taken a lot off the yields the past two months. But that gets pushed aside by experts and the focus remains on the pockets of good yields

What never comes into consideration for hail damage. There is increased weed pressure for the next couple of years. Usually hail happens after the incrop herbicide window closes, but even if it is before the crop just doesn’t compete the same after.

[farmaholic]

Support at 518.20 now. Expect to rise for a while yet, perhaps at a slower rate

The carry between Nov and July is now only $12/t.

Hmmm...

[Oliver88]

Up another $5/tonne. Talk of record crop has been minimal recently.

[farmaholic]

Some people will enjoy both stellar crop yeilds AND real good grain prices. It happens.

Sask-ahem-farmer-ahem-3-ahem.

😉👍

[farming101]

China spot price for ****seed oil set a new high today...China ****seed oil futures inverted out to July 21 contract. No carry

[farmaholic]

China spot price for ****seed oil set a new high today...China ****seed oil futures inverted out to July 21 contract. No carry

I wonder if Canadian canola futures will get inverted yet.

[farmaholic]

**** the futures !

What are you waiting for !

Sell er theys just playing with yous !

Huh?

Don't pay attention then.

[farmaholic]

The futures mean **** all its the net price they pay you !

A click of the computer can make er 11.75 instead of 10.75 !

Agreed but it's definitely a part of the equation.

Especially if you already have a locked in basis on committed tonnage.

[Oliver88]

The futures mean **** all its the net price they pay you !

A click of the computer can make er 11.75 instead of 10.75 !

Good tool to use for sure.

[Partners]

Don't expect prices to sky rocket.
I am sure turdo will piss someone off.

[bucket]

Don't expect prices to sky rocket.
I am sure turdo will piss someone off.

Prices will rise for the middleman handling our grain between the west coast and the end users. ...

[farmaholic]

If you have targets move em up or pull em completely. They are short and China is hungry if we all band together and refuse to sell we could move the market to its fair value in the $13-14 territory. This harvest happy hour bullshit needs to stop imo.

Ah yes, the infamous targets. Just hanging there in LIMBO on the sacred tree of Target Prices....where all the low hanging fruit gets picked first. Then the higher fruit is left to the fate of a staring contest.

It's a fùcken schtoopit one sided deal.

Increase the target well above the current market or pull them.

On another topic stated above. "GrainCo pre-sold grain", be it old crop carry forward or new crop. How can you sell something you don't physically own? Would hate to be on the wrong side of that. Could hurt, or at least they can "try" to pass the pain onto growers with below market price values.

This commentary is worth exactly what you paid for it, nothing....its just an opinion.

[bucket]

Where are we at with this thread....canola at 532 for january...wasnt 519 resistance?

[furrowtickler]

ADM LLOYD BIDS: RSX UP $9.30/MT: SEP/OCT $11.34...NOV $11.57...DEC/JAN $11.72...FEB/MAR $11.87...APR/MAY $11.98...JUN/JUL $10.97...SEP/OCT/NOV FALL OF'21 $10.96

Farma your charts are showing their teeth 👍

[farming101]

Where are we at with this thread....canola at 532 for january...wasnt 519 resistance?

Ya 519.50, next was the Sept 14 high of 530.90.

Next could be around 542.30. Resistance is just that, resistance. It is not a target to shoot for to make the next sale.