Seasonal Canola

[Blaithin]

Yields are as expected here, a bit low, but seems like quality is holding. Surprising considering the swaths of hail that went through the area.

My luck I’ve just jinxed myself and have a sea of green coming my way. First flush is always nice, it’s the straggler stuff that strikes terror in the retina.

[WiltonRanch]

ADM in Lloydminster has been up to $11.50 , so it has show some life at times
Agree probably drift lower for a bit as harvest weather looks to get most of the canola in the bin . Not sure about central and northern Alberta though .

FYI G3 in Maidstone was $11.50 a week ago for a morning. They were hovering $11.30 otherwise while ADM was $11.05. They’re plugged now of course but been outdoing others on canola and barley.

[farmaholic]

Yields are as expected here, a bit low, but seems like quality is holding. Surprising considering the swaths of hail that went through the area.

My luck I’ve just jinxed myself and have a sea of green coming my way. First flush is always nice, it’s the straggler stuff that strikes terror in the retina.

Don't look so hard!

[Blaithin]

Don't look so hard!

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that!

[Oliver88]

I would think and hope the bar has been raised for the whole marketing year and we are in a new trading range.

The Canadian supply is in, let's see if we can muster more demand without lowering prices.

Would be nice if both Europe and China provided strong demand but markets might have to chew through Aussie supplies(with their cheaper currency)before we see stronger prices?

It's hard to get excited about committing to 2021 canola seed as dry as it is in the Ghetto, sounds like this might be a bit bigger than "Ghetto backyarditis". Tapped out. But people said we never lost next year's crop in October. Well people are claiming field work, other than spraying or harrowing is "hard"(and dry) to do. Heard some people say anhydrousing might be on hold.

Pay attention to moisture conditions in grain producing countries of the world.....both exporting and importing(countries that grow alot of grain but still need to import).

Appears to be in a new trading range.

[farming101]

Appears to be in a new trading range.

I agree. However I have some reservations about great advances in cash prices till the new year. And of course that's far enough off that no one knows what will be happening then.
The market is supplied quite well for now.
Farma threw the whole complex into a tailspin when he put another 20% of his stocks on the market and hasn't returned to those levels since. Good going btw....
Update on the opening post chart:

[farmaholic]

I wish.

[Oliver88]

Farmaholic likely caused market chaos for sure by pulling the trigger.

Is the next sell at $540 January Futures?

[farmaholic]

Would "range bound" be such a bad thing at these values?

Always looking for more in the Ghetto.

[farmaholic]

Not much carry in the futures between March and May and none at the moment between May and July.

$15.50 from Nov to July.

[Rareearth]

Could it be, the exporters trying to secure volumes now? They are booking the sales now and margin vs wait it the weeds with all the uncertainty. More profit in canola than cereals.

Wouldn’t it be interesting to know what percentage of the grain inventory has actually been sold or committed to a sale through contract.

We can see through the grain commission actual farmer deliveries. Roughly 25% of the crop has been delivered so far this year. Has 50 % or more actually been contracted with growers ( to cover nov, Dec, deliveries) ?

IF it’s a dry spring, no subsoil moisture, expensive seed, fertilizer well you know, July could be interesting, throw in cold winter where trains can’t run or heavy snow. Prices never go up unless farmers slow down on deliveries, regardless of the demand. Need more agrivillers to sell now, Farma need company ( buy calls), then deliveries can be squeezed (always allowing a trickle into the system) must always trickle or buyers look elsewhere, and exporters get frustrated ( bins locked or farmers sold out). This works as long as there are no substitution options (beans)

Anyway, producer deliveries of physical canola are up about 25% over last year, in a average to below average crop production year. Cash flow, demand and uncertainty etc all contributing to strong markets ( yes I’ve sold some as well, just didn’t see this coming in June).

[Oliver88]

Would "range bound" be such a bad thing at these values?

Always looking for more in the Ghetto.

Canola up again, you will be living well in the ghetto.

What is the next level of resistance 101, Errol, Techanalyst, Macdon and others?

[farmaholic]

Is this going to be a year we see some positive basis sooner or later?

[blackpowder]

It would appear so.

[furrowtickler]

I hope so, all the charts 101 put up 3 months ago are showing true 👍... so far