CAD

[burnt]

So on '21 soys - $10.50 CHI and $2.50 basis = $13.00 beans plus whatever I.P. premium - $3.50? looks really really good for next planting season by taking care of price concerns.

[agstar77]

U.S. bank analysts now projecting a rough 2021 for the USD . . . talk of a 20% plus decline in the American greenback.

If this is remotely true, crude oil prices could roll higher in 2021 ($50 to $60 per barrel?) especially if vaccinations again encourage travel. The loonie could push 80 cents U.S. or higher (IMO).

Could be a function of the pandemic mess they are in. Much worse than anyone could believe.

[Rareearth]

In southern Saskatchewan it’s unprecedented DRY.

If it doesn’t rain in May,
it won’t matter how high new crop pricing gets, or how much fert and chemicals get applied, we won’t have anything to sell and it would actually be a huge payable or liability to buy out of contracts.

Risks have never been higher, the current best decision is no decision - or doing nothing and wait

[jazz]

CAD to USD is back to pre covid levels, 77c today, but the market is net short against CAD.

There is no way we are a AAA country anymore. This is all just shenanigans. I converted a bunch of CAD to USD just before covid. Maybe good time to do that again.

[farming101]

2 year high close this week? Possibly....

[errolanderson]

USD continues to get a hammer job . . . weekly chart pointing toward next major low of 88.80

CAD now breaking into fresh highs . . . weekly charts suggest next resistance @ 78.70 cents U.S. Heavy resistance @ 79.80 cents U.S. (for what it is worth).

Well see . . . . currencies always a moving target.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Is strength in the CAD typically and essentially an indicator of strength ( betting on further strength) of oil?

[jazz]

Well see . . . . currencies always a moving target.

Sounds like people positioning for a Biden hatchet job on the economy.

I am still negative on the CAD and you dont need to even bother with the USD to do that. You can use equity funds to hedge that position.

Here is a chart of the top S&P funds in canada, XSP is hedged to USD, ZSP is not. You can see the currency diversion all this year, narrowing now but will it hold? Canadas GDP is still 10% lower than where it should be even with the economy fully open in Q3, and now its partially closed again. That will reflect in the numbers shortly.

Is strength in the CAD typically and essentially an indicator of strength ( betting on further strength) of oil?

Looks to be decoupling now and without investment in our oil industry might be broken for good.

[bucket]

Do our grain exports help the dollar??????

[errolanderson]

Is strength in the CAD typically and essentially an indicator of strength ( betting on further strength) of oil?

Yes . . . and oil's strength is also tied to decline in USD. COVID vaccine optimism supporting travel stocks. Talk of $50 to $60 per barrel if travel restarts . . . .

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Yes . . . and oil's strength is also tied to decline in USD. COVID vaccine optimism supporting travel stocks. Talk of $50 to $60 per barrel if travel restarts . . . .

Historically that would be a reasonable relationship. But with the US no longer a significant net importer, shouldn't the price of oil be nearly inconsequential to their economic fortunes?

[TASFarms]

I read a couple weeks ago that the US dollar is going to lose 20% of its value in the next year or so. I’m thinking Maybe the Canadian dollar will gain 20%