Cost-of-Gain Surging

[errolanderson]

With corn and barley prices all-fired up, these are difficult times for the feeding industry. Bottomline . . . China, China, China . . . . China demand is the sparkplug. Southern Alberta feedlot delivered barley prices are now breaking above $250/MT ($5.44/bu) delivered for deferred movement. U.S. corn futures have roared with the December contract surging from $3.20/bu to above $4/bu now.

China appears to have booked Cdn barley at lower levels weeks ago. Those sales must now be covered for export movement. The question now is; will China demand hold into winter? In the meantime, the margin squeeze is on our domestic feeding market.

[bucket]

With corn and barley prices all-fired up, these are difficult times for the feeding industry. Bottomline . . . China, China, China . . . . China demand is the sparkplug. Southern Alberta feedlot delivered barley prices are now breaking above $250/MT ($5.44/bu) delivered for deferred movement. U.S. corn futures have roared with the December contract surging from $3.20/bu to above $4/bu now.

China appears to have booked Cdn barley at lower levels weeks ago. Those sales must now be covered for export movement. The question now is; will China demand hold into winter? In the meantime, the margin squeeze is on our domestic feeding market.

When did farmers see those sales reports of barley to china ?

Oops that's a secret.

[malleefarmer]

With corn and barley prices all-fired up, these are difficult times for the feeding industry. Bottomline . . . China, China, China . . . . China demand is the sparkplug. Southern Alberta feedlot delivered barley prices are now breaking above $250/MT ($5.44/bu) delivered for deferred movement. U.S. corn futures have roared with the December contract surging from $3.20/bu to above $4/bu now.

China appears to have booked Cdn barley at lower levels weeks ago. Those sales must now be covered for export movement. The question now is; will China demand hold into winter? In the meantime, the margin squeeze is on our domestic feeding market.

And dangnabbit we are excluded supposedly.

China buying aust barley via 2nd party apparently

[malleefarmer]

Argie shaved another million tonnes off estimates

[MBgrower]

Canada still excluded on all Saudi barley tenders thanks to our former foreign affairs minister and her big mouth. Oh well, at least she got a big promotion.

[BFW]

Canada still excluded on all Saudi barley tenders thanks to our former foreign affairs minister and her big mouth. Oh well, at least she got a big promotion.

somebody buying this barley guys. Maybe just end user panic but corn will come in soon because cattle and hogs need to be fed.

[GDR]

So what are everyone's thoughts on fall calf prices. Calf run starting later here with ample grazing, this weeks weather may change that. Prices appear to be down from the last couple years. Will the market be pressured further this fall?

[errolanderson]

It was a tough week for the cattle board. Feeder cattle weakened steadily on ongoing corn price strength. January feeder cattle tested a low of $128.35/cwt today . . . a nasty $14/cwt decline over the past two (2) weeks. Meanwhile, December corn tested an amazing high of $4.09/bu today. More rumblings of China stockpiling.

The rising cost of gain may be be felt in-the-heart of the fall calf run (IMO). U.S. corn may be shipped into southern Alberta to cover barley shortages this winter, but landed U.S. prices will be much higher.
That will remain a challenge for feeders particularly in these COVID times.

For what it's worth, technicals are now oversold for feeder cattle and overbought for corn. But does it matter as long as real grain demand holds? What can trigger a sell-down in grains is; 1. Rain 2. China cancellations. Both will occur at some point. But for now, enjoy the strength in the local cash grain market, but don't let your marketing guard down. Bull markets are known throw curve balls.

[Rareearth]

Corn basis is really good for farmers as well (corn in the usa), I think I heard $1.00 bu over futures. That just doesn’t happen in Canada.

[farming101]

got 410.25 for Dec20 corn. Very close.
Above that major resistance around 4.34