Harvest Happenings

[furrowtickler]

Blue water maybe gotta be huge freight advantage for us

Err new crops even higher nov 21 delivery better not post the fowards from traders grain companies

Don’t traders and end users fight for your grain, I’m perplexed

A big part of the game here is the traders and end users have a lot of guys tied up with input bills basically guaranteeing the grain to go to them . They just sit back and most of the grain comes right to their door step

[malleefarmer]

RUSSIA'S drought and the risk of a wet harvest in Australia and potential quality downgrading provides an explosive mix for global wheat markets in the coming weeks.

Uncertainty over Russia's 2021 winter wheat crop has stalled farmer selling on the current crop as they wait for rain.


World wheat prices have jumped 15 per cent in the past four weeks amid supply uncertainty.

Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures gained 5pc last week, posting new six-year highs after Russia's weather forecasts turned drier, removing much-needed rain to germinate winter wheat crops before freezing temperatures arrive in the lead up to winter.

Russia's Southern Districts, the heart of countries wheat belt, recorded its lowest rainfall in the through August, September and early October in the past 30 years, casting doubts over the size of next year's crop.

Strengthening world wheat prices at the onset of the harvest window is welcome news for Australian farmers, where the focus has turned to harvest and grain quality.

La Nina related unsettled weather has raised the risk rain during the harvest window and potential quality downgrades.

Global traders will also be watching Australian's harvest weather, nervous about a major quality downgrade.

Major wheat importers are far more dependent on Australian wheat as they struggle to secure wheat from tight-fisted Russian farmers.


A wet harvest would only add to the current global price volatility.

Rising global wheat markets, uncertainty over grain quality with the increased chance of a wet harvest has slowed farmer selling putting upward pressure on local prices.

ASX wheat futures rallied to $322/t on Monday, up $10/t for the week.

Barley values were generally steady, where global markets are less concerns about the Russian drought.

CBH were upbeat about Australia's wheat export potential, saying "the world needs Australian wheat" from December through to June 2021 after a small European wheat harvest.

Relatively expensive Russian wheat for this time of the year will also help Australian exports, they said.

Wheat harvesting is underway in all states apart from Victoria.


Unsettled weather has slowed harvest progress across southern Queensland and northern NSW.

The threat of storms and rain has turned the 2020 harvest into a race against nature to get crops harvested and into storage before the inevitable major rain event.

[malleefarmer]

Export traders run off there feet this week. Growers locking in say 15% extra of expected tonnes.

So Australian exporters grain co’s are doing trade on the international level.

Are Canadian traders asleep at the wheel? Just can’t get my head around trade is brisk here quite there.

Most growers selling into this market. But huge spread between top and feed grades. $100 so there factoring in problems. Spread is locked and known at time of contracting.

Ya don’t the spread sell flat grade rather than multi grade contract.

Or go to alternate buyer might have less spread feed worth more but his top end may be less.

Hope the Australian market and how it functions doesn’t confuse you not my intention.

Can get complicated switching elevator to get upgrades or maximum arbitrage if you wanna call it that.

Have a top night guys and gals

Ps I really like learning about your marketing and selling methods options I couldn’t cope with it hence a lot of my dumb questions

Double edit another question peoples minds spread between feed barley and standard wheat is $80 to 90 some suggest can’t stay like this for to long wheat will drop, other camp barley is under valued compared to wheat must rise.

Chuck in weather issue above volatile........geez I mentioned Voldemort’s name in this sentance

[malleefarmer]

Victoria’s shipping stems are booked solid from December until about March, and the slowed arrival of the Victorian crop, on top of rain delays already affecting the NSW harvest, has consumers and exporters scrambling for nearby coverage.

“There’s certainly a premium in the prompt market.”

Mr Fitzgerald said a premium for November-December grain over January grain had started to develop.

“It’s going to be a a juggling act with the weather.”

[furrowtickler]

Thanks for all the info 👍
Brings a unique perspective here
We are left in the dark here for the most part .
Some of the new terminals are shaking up the old boys club here , re Cargil and Richardson’s .
They are losing business to the new G3’s and Grains connect .
Our little area here seems to be the lowest prices in all western Canada most times unless they need grain to fill cars before shipment.

[ajl]

In canuckistan's generally non competitive economy, most players in a number of sectors figure that it is better to fatten margins than compete for market share. Occasionally, but not often, somebody rocks the boat a little but not for the most part. Often times outside constraints play a role in this happening like there are only two rail lines to the coast and they might be under the snow at any given time. A little collusion here and there goes a long way as well.

[furrowtickler]

The original line company’s here , RP , Cargil P&H and Viterra had quite the gig going with suppling all inputs to set the trap for near guaranteed grain delivery. That’s now changing as G3 and grains connect are just grain terminals and actually have to buy grain .
It is reflected in cash prices a lot this fall and some of the big difference in pricing between them.

[malleefarmer]

Thanks for last three comments often wonder if ya sick of my aussie perspective and harvest etc. really I guess not relevant but hey will keep posting.

After reading some of klauses posts and know it only his opinion but seems ag mining forestry is all under valued in Canada, whereas here it underpins the economy different mind set from Govt perhaps we have centre right even right thinking govt.

Cheers huge rain imminent in parts of our cropping area today up to even 100 mm in a few hours gonna be ugly.

Not me we will be lucky to see 5 mm thank heavens. About 350 kms away

[malleefarmer]

Edging closer to $300 on farm for standard 10 to 11.5% wheat yesterday $289

Edging closer to $600 on farm for canola currently $583

Barley hopefully $250 on farm ain’t a dream $225 at moment.

Increase in truck pay loads as well this year.

Now payloads of up to 59 tonnes, an increase from 44t but elevator that use drive over hoppers is a issue hoopers have to be moved every 75 t whereas 27 t semi trailer just lifts and dumps in stack/bunker.

[malleefarmer]

Harvest still 2 weeks away here locally before going full tilt.

So buyers scarce at local elevator only 21 operating today.

Will scramble once harvest cranks up.

Geez the 24 hour payment is gonna be a winner one of the multi national global guys as well so not a fly by nighter.

Have a good evening 8 pm here chow time

Oh PS prices haven’t risen since fridays close basically same basis eroded just a little.

$584 on farm canola is reasonable for us aussie guys maybe not enough cream on top for you chaps. Most hanging for $600 on farm equivalent may not quite there, gotta be careful what you wish for.

Traders doing bussiness with many so there exporting it somewere