Harvest Happenings

[farming101]

Canada Malt, ya good one. I've hauled barley back out of their facility and after 140km round trip finally "got rid" of the offending barley. What a good profit on that one

[malleefarmer]

Wow re malt for you guys.

Sure is hard.

I wont sell my 450 acres amalt anyway do direct to feedlot.

But nothing easier than taking to above elevator, sampled, protein test weight and retention done either malt 1 malt 2 or feed. Done and dusted no germ testing or shenanigans

[malleefarmer]

Rumour mill.

China seeking wheat multiple destinations.

Dont want to pay more later.

Blind freddy sees USA one supplier other 2 who knows.

Will look for tender sheets In a wekks time if its true.

Theyve got the shitze on with Australia wont be us

[malleefarmer]

The above terminal prices yesterday best $218.74 lowest $204.66 everything in between.

The town is tailem bend.

A buyer contacted me yesterday looking for barley needs 2000 tonne.

Feedlot cattle and lamb.

His bid best listed price at tailem bend on farm.

So feed barley for me yesterday could have been $218.74 on farm.

We are two even three weeks away from harvest.

[malleefarmer]

NSW 2nd biggest wheat state sometimes biggest. 1.7 million tonne last year and 12 million tonne wheat forecast this year quite turn around eh. Joys of farming in aust.

Standard harvest photo

[malleefarmer]

AUSTRALIAN grain producers are staring at the cusp of the rare combination of good domestic production and prices close to double those seen in the most recent heavy yielding season, 2016-17.

The international wheat market has continued to rise over the past month, spurred primarily by uncertainty over the winter crop in Russia and Ukraine, where conditions have been too dry to plant.


Grain industry analysts have continually questioned the fundamentals of the rally, but prices are still heading north - rising a further $A20 a tonne this week, with prices at most Australian ports for APW quality wheat now around $325/t.

In context, it means prices at close to double that offered in 2016-17 which could be the only year with larger production than what is forecast to come off over the next two and a half months.

With harvest kicking into full swing in NSW and the frost window rapidly closing in southern cropping zones, flooding is now the only peril that could write off large swathes of crop.

"Provided no black swan events occur, we can expect the happy duo of good volumes and price this harvest," said Andrew Whitelaw, market analyst with Thomas Elder Markets.

He said the year was unusual in that prices were on the rise leading into the Australian harvest.

Generally, harvest selling pressure sees prices fall as the headers start rolling, apart from in years of drought.

This year, with international factors the major driver, the price curve is rising.


Mr Whitelaw said price rises in the last quarter of the year in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) terms was unusual, but not unknown.

"2014 was one of the biggest late season rallies in futures in Australian dollar terms, but it has happened in 2000, 2006 and even the past two years.

"The difference is this year it is rallying off already strong values."

Nick Crundall, head of strategy at Market Check, said the strong prices at present were likely to mean farmers would take cash at harvest time rather than storing grain and looking for higher values into the new year.

"At $325/t port for wheat most growers are going to be pretty willing sellers at those values, the high prices mean it is a totally different ball game to 2016-17," Mr Crundall said.

"Canola is another one where the price is right up, while even barley, where you could probably get $200/t ex-farm somewhere like the Mallee is not too bad a number, especially for those growing big tonnages," he said.

Ron Storey, Storey Marketing Services, agreed the prices would see many farmers sell at harvest.


"I think people will see the price and they will see yields that are often 50 per cent above average and do the sums and see gross margins they are very comfortable with and sell off the header," Mr Storey said.

He said there would likely be some forward contracting at current values, although he added concerns about a wet harvest may keep committed tonnes lower than otherwise would be expected with these prices.

Mr Crundall agreed, saying there had been solid, but not spectacular sales prior to harvest.

"It is a decent wedge for sure, but given the predicted crop size keeps getting bigger I would not think it would be any more than 15pc of the crop."

Both men said while the cash price at harvest was likely to mean good returns there were further advantages those with more expertise in the market could seize.

"The basis is very low in historic terms and that could present some opportunities," Mr Crundall said.

"If you can sell using a method where you can exploit that low basis then you've got a chance to improve that figure even further."


Mr Storey agreed.

"For most, the cash price is very good, they're making exceptional returns so that is fine, but for those a little bit more sophisticated using swaps that allow you to lock in basis later could provide a little cream on the cake."

There is good news for growers on the robustness of the current values.

Mr Crundall said the international dynamics meant the prices were not just a flash in the pan.

"We've see the international number continue to rise and we've now got a situation where Australian wheat is the cheapest in the world into south-east Asia.

In spite of a couple of years where south-east Asia has turned to origins as diverse as the Black Sea and Argentina for supply given Australia's dearth of wheat for export, Mr Crundall said customers were happy to buy Australian wheat.

"The myth of the big premium for Australian wheat may have been exaggerated but at the same price, with our advantages, our lower moisture, good quality and quick turnaround the Asian millers will always use Aussie wheat if it is around the same price as the competition."

[malleefarmer]

Ps a “header” is a combine.

All system go for some $300 on farm for wheat is no brainer.

H1 high protein is $330 on farm.

Praise the lord no single desk as Tom4cwb would say.

Can anyone imagine how far behind single desk awb/cwb would be behind in today’s 21/10/20 market shudder to think. Choice hmmm sell now sell later hmmmm get paid full tote odds within 24 hours by some marketers whereas had to wait 12 months some times 18 months with pools.

Canola price local elevator top and bottom take of $13 my on farm price

Crap photo $592 to $545 bottom fair range in canola prices. Farmers will be delivering and cashing at these numbers no waiting for higher

[burnt]

Even with accounting for the AUS/CAN/US dollar difference, our on-farm prices don't come close to that. Cash, deferred, new crop contracts.???

[malleefarmer]

Even with accounting for the AUS/CAN/US dollar difference, our on-farm prices don't come close to that. Cash, deferred, new crop contracts.???

Blue water maybe gotta be huge freight advantage for us

Err new crops even higher nov 21 delivery better not post the fowards from traders grain companies

Don’t traders and end users fight for your grain, I’m perplexed

[TOM4CWB]

Blue water maybe gotta be huge freight advantage for us

Err new crops even higher nov 21 delivery better not post the fowards from traders grain companies

Don’t traders and end users fight for your grain, I’m perplexed

From the Wall Street Journal:

"Number of the Day
27,434
Grain carloads carried by U.S. railroads in the week ending Oct. 10, a 31.2% increase from the same week last year, according to the Association of American Railroads."

[furrowtickler]

Blue water maybe gotta be huge freight advantage for us

Err new crops even higher nov 21 delivery better not post the fowards from traders grain companies

Don’t traders and end users fight for your grain, I’m perplexed

A big part of the game here is the traders and end users have a lot of guys tied up with input bills basically guaranteeing the grain to go to them . They just sit back and most of the grain comes right to their door step

[malleefarmer]

RUSSIA'S drought and the risk of a wet harvest in Australia and potential quality downgrading provides an explosive mix for global wheat markets in the coming weeks.

Uncertainty over Russia's 2021 winter wheat crop has stalled farmer selling on the current crop as they wait for rain.


World wheat prices have jumped 15 per cent in the past four weeks amid supply uncertainty.

Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures gained 5pc last week, posting new six-year highs after Russia's weather forecasts turned drier, removing much-needed rain to germinate winter wheat crops before freezing temperatures arrive in the lead up to winter.

Russia's Southern Districts, the heart of countries wheat belt, recorded its lowest rainfall in the through August, September and early October in the past 30 years, casting doubts over the size of next year's crop.

Strengthening world wheat prices at the onset of the harvest window is welcome news for Australian farmers, where the focus has turned to harvest and grain quality.

La Nina related unsettled weather has raised the risk rain during the harvest window and potential quality downgrades.

Global traders will also be watching Australian's harvest weather, nervous about a major quality downgrade.

Major wheat importers are far more dependent on Australian wheat as they struggle to secure wheat from tight-fisted Russian farmers.


A wet harvest would only add to the current global price volatility.

Rising global wheat markets, uncertainty over grain quality with the increased chance of a wet harvest has slowed farmer selling putting upward pressure on local prices.

ASX wheat futures rallied to $322/t on Monday, up $10/t for the week.

Barley values were generally steady, where global markets are less concerns about the Russian drought.

CBH were upbeat about Australia's wheat export potential, saying "the world needs Australian wheat" from December through to June 2021 after a small European wheat harvest.

Relatively expensive Russian wheat for this time of the year will also help Australian exports, they said.

Wheat harvesting is underway in all states apart from Victoria.


Unsettled weather has slowed harvest progress across southern Queensland and northern NSW.

The threat of storms and rain has turned the 2020 harvest into a race against nature to get crops harvested and into storage before the inevitable major rain event.

[malleefarmer]

Export traders run off there feet this week. Growers locking in say 15% extra of expected tonnes.

So Australian exporters grain co’s are doing trade on the international level.

Are Canadian traders asleep at the wheel? Just can’t get my head around trade is brisk here quite there.

Most growers selling into this market. But huge spread between top and feed grades. $100 so there factoring in problems. Spread is locked and known at time of contracting.

Ya don’t the spread sell flat grade rather than multi grade contract.

Or go to alternate buyer might have less spread feed worth more but his top end may be less.

Hope the Australian market and how it functions doesn’t confuse you not my intention.

Can get complicated switching elevator to get upgrades or maximum arbitrage if you wanna call it that.

Have a top night guys and gals

Ps I really like learning about your marketing and selling methods options I couldn’t cope with it hence a lot of my dumb questions

Double edit another question peoples minds spread between feed barley and standard wheat is $80 to 90 some suggest can’t stay like this for to long wheat will drop, other camp barley is under valued compared to wheat must rise.

Chuck in weather issue above volatile........geez I mentioned Voldemort’s name in this sentance

[malleefarmer]

Victoria’s shipping stems are booked solid from December until about March, and the slowed arrival of the Victorian crop, on top of rain delays already affecting the NSW harvest, has consumers and exporters scrambling for nearby coverage.

“There’s certainly a premium in the prompt market.”

Mr Fitzgerald said a premium for November-December grain over January grain had started to develop.

“It’s going to be a a juggling act with the weather.”

[furrowtickler]

Thanks for all the info 👍
Brings a unique perspective here
We are left in the dark here for the most part .
Some of the new terminals are shaking up the old boys club here , re Cargil and Richardson’s .
They are losing business to the new G3’s and Grains connect .
Our little area here seems to be the lowest prices in all western Canada most times unless they need grain to fill cars before shipment.