Market sentiment and fundamentals

[malleefarmer]

Hedge funds speculators etc how long are they?

And when they take profit will it just be a blip?

Will they re establish a position?

What’s the mindset of funds at moment guess that’s a impossible question to answer

And is it mostly beans and corn there most active in?

What’s the Baltic dry index doing that’s a barometer at times Larry if he’s reading this would know that.

[errolanderson]

Hedge funds speculators etc how long are they?

And when they take profit will it just be a blip?

Will they re establish a position?

What’s the mindset of funds at moment guess that’s a impossible question to answer

And is it mostly beans and corn there most active in?

What’s the Baltic dry index doing that’s a barometer at times Larry if he’s reading this would know that.

When markets are straining to the upside or downside, we start to watch open interest as a heads-up indicator of a sudden price change. It doesn’t matter how bullish or bearish a commodity market is; should the funds bail positions en-mass, prices peak or bottom. Grains are raging and cattle are plunging right now, both a watch on open interest right now (IMO).

[errolanderson]

When markets are straining to the upside or downside, we start to watch open interest as a heads-up indicator of a sudden price change. It doesn’t matter how bullish or bearish a commodity market is; should the funds bail positions en-mass, prices peak or bottom. Grains are raging and cattle are plunging right now, both a watch on open interest right now (IMO).

Just an added note . . . . fundamentals start a change in price trend ie: China buying, but technicals tend to end it (fund liquidation) or in this rally, the word ‘cancel’ from China. The sky isn’t the limit in any commodity rally.

[jazz]

Errol some blog I came across claims Canada is in a 3 part crash. GDP crash, debt bubble and impending currency implosion.

Double digit UE in our most populous provinces currently undergoing 2nd lock down.

Thoughts?

[farmaholic]

Whole number double digits is quite a range......10-99.

[errolanderson]

Errol some blog I came across claims Canada is in a 3 part crash. GDP crash, debt bubble and impending currency implosion.

Double digit UE in our most populous provinces currently undergoing 2nd lock down.

Thoughts?

Depression . . . . No V-shaped recovery as advertised.

[jazz]

Whole number double digits is quite a range......10-99.

11-13% Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary

min 25% of mortgages, leases, rents, loan pmts in arrears.

[Rareearth]

Markets and risk to the up side are substantially higher than commodity prices going down.

How often do Commodity producers have to pay the market to take product away ( once Alberta crude, and that didn’t last long). If prices, any commodity fall to 0 cost - that’s 100% price change, if commodity prices double that’s 100% - but what if price triple or go higher- paper exchanges with margin calls hurt.

[malleefarmer]

Old ground but , Chicago wheat managed funds have recently held the largest long position since February 2020. Following improved precipitation forecasts across the US Plains, some profit taking ensued yesterday. Are futures topping out? Or will record Black Sea flour prices support the market? Will covid increase around the world support or hinder upside. Testing times.

[errolanderson]

Old ground but , Chicago wheat managed funds have recently held the largest long position since February 2020. Following improved precipitation forecasts across the US Plains, some profit taking ensued yesterday. Are futures topping out? Or will record Black Sea flour prices support the market? Will covid increase around the world support or hinder upside. Testing times.

Kansas City wheat appears to have broken its near-term uptrend, Chicago still intact, MWE has erased 20 plus cents off recent highs. Are soybeans now exhausting? . . . China buying post election will be interesting and dictate whether trend can hold. Volatility ahead for the commodity world (IMO) . . . .

[bucket]

Kansas City wheat appears to have broken its near-term uptrend, Chicago still intact, MWE has erased 20 plus cents off recent highs. Are soybeans now exhausting? . . . China buying post election will be interesting and dictate whether trend can hold. Volatility ahead for the commodity world (IMO) . . . .

China can either accept their current commitments are a bargain and continue to buy or shitcan the market to previous levels....they still need grain.

Either way the US farmer has come out with a win.

[errolanderson]

With fallout in stocks and commodities, the USD is apt to get some buying attention. The CAD and alternate currencies may feel pressure. Gold has been following the direction of equities. Crude oil selling is the result of COVID shutdowns.

Volatilty in markets is again rising sharply . . . .