2003/04 CWB Initial Payments Raised Today

[charliep]

The federal government/CWB raised initial payments today. The below is for the base grades (all payments based port).

1CWRS 12.5 - Current initial $166.75/tonne or 82.5 % of the Feb. PRO ($202/tonne). 90 % EPO is $181.80/tonne minus $1.50/tonne discount.

1CWAD 12.5 - Current initial $161/tonne or 76 % of the Feb. PRO ($212/tonne). 90 % EPO is $190.80/tonne minus discount of $2.50/tonne. 70 % call on the "A" series/none on the "B", lower initial and higher discount on the durum highlight larger risk factor.

SS 2row malt barley - Current initial $167/tonne or 85 % of the Feb. PRO ($197/tonne). 90 % EPO is $177.30/tonne minus discount of $1.25/tonne. Least risky payment.

1CW feed barley - Current initial $127/tonne or 81 % of the Feb. PRO ($157/tonne). 90 % guaranteed delivery contract - $141.30/tonne minus $1.25/tonne discount. Current Alberta payment about $110/tonne plus whatever trucking premiums available. Current non board elevator bids - $110 to $125/tonne depending on location. http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/agc5136?opendocument

[boone]

incognito: What is your take on Ritters comments not to give up on pooling success this year? Do you think he is a better poker player than we have been giving him credit for. Was in Regina to a meeting, and many still have high hopes. Mind you a CAIS meeting is not a marketing venue.

[Incognito]

I've been bullish wheat this crop year; although some will say I am always bullish wheat and sooner or later I will be right.

Lowest stocks to use ratios on wheat since 1989 and perilously close to 1967 levels. China will be scrambling for wheat in the next 6 months; MGE up 4-8 cents today.

Poker...never met a lawyer I would want to play cards with yet, Boone, and i would think, nor have you. Inside the CWB, I am being told that the changes required to manage risk properly still have not been made - so I guess we will have to wait on that one.

Ya think the cattle money leaked this morning will quiet "Laverne and Shirley", (u kill me) in the short term or was that a trade off to drop the 2 X 4?

[boone]

incognito: As Sargeant Shultz used to say "I know nussing" It was just literary licence taking leave of it's good sense. Have been wondering if China sees a demand that the rest of us don't?

[Incognito]

I think they see the demand and it's in their back yard. I spent some time there and they have no frikkin idea to estimate their stocks.

In January, 2000, in their haste to become WTO members (and drive the world price of wheat down) I think they gave bogus numbers to the USDA and the WTO for wheat stocks.

[Incognito]

Another thing on Ritter:

He fooled all the dual market votes at election time...so maybe he can play poker!!!!!!!!

Need sleep....lol

[TOM4CWB]

Incognito;

The CWB's type of poker is painful... every bluff costs farmers big hurt.