Watch Global Credit Markets . . . .

[errolanderson]

There may a shake coming down-the-pipe for global credit markets . . . . Liquidity is paramount as any freeze-up in credit (particularly bank to bank) plays a mean card for commodity markets. This may already be in-progress . . . .

Global credit markets were already strained before stock markets swooned recently. Further equity pullback could have a domino-impact as international buyers need ready access to credit to make foreign purchases.

Central banks appear now 'all-in' with forced liquidity supporting credit markets (IMO) . . . .

[ajl]

Does this mean we should see interest rates continue to rise from current levels and we should be 100% sold by now? Sold all my peas and was getting bids for wheat and oats the other day. Problem I have is low falling numbers on the wheat so have to wait until they don't care about falling numbers any more. Nicest harvest in 5 years and still low falling number. Some wheat got some frost. Don't know if that affects falling number or not.

[furrowtickler]

Does this mean we should see interest rates continue to rise from current levels and we should be 100% sold by now? Sold all my peas and was getting bids for wheat and oats the other day. Problem I have is low falling numbers on the wheat so have to wait until they don't care about falling numbers any more. Nicest harvest in 5 years and still low falling number. Some wheat got some frost. Don't know if that affects falling number or not.

AC Brandon ?

[errolanderson]

LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) and SIBOR (Singapore Interbank Offered Rate) are apt to climb.
This is lending rates between financial institutions. This may make bank credit less available.

Personally, can't see bank rates climbing to consumers as this recession appears worsening and would magnify all-ready ballooning bankruptcies (IMO).

Squeeze on the consumer, but now on the banks as well . . . .

[jazz]

Negative rates errol, isnt that the only place left to go?

By my estimation, the covid affected economies of the world printed up some $20T. How can there be a credit crunch with that kind of liquidity in the system?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

"All In". Seems to be a moving target, comparable to how cheap is only half way down.

We have been hearing that central banks are all in, or out of ammunition for so long, only to have them pull another exponentially larger rabbit out of their seemingly bottomless hat.
And no doubt, it requires exponentially more every time.
First world countries are just now getting a taste of civil disobedience, mass riots, anarchy, shortages etc. Why would they purposely unleash that on a world wide scale when they know the simple solution, to kick the can further down the road?

But so long as everyone else is playing by the same rules, it keeps working.

[helmsdale]

Negative rates errol, isnt that the only place left to go?

By my estimation, the covid affected economies of the world printed up some $20T. How can there be a credit crunch with that kind of liquidity in the system?

They'll go negative. They have to!

Just when you think the gig is up and there'll be a restoration of financial sanity in this world, they find a new way to make it even more insane. Much like a druggie needs an ever bigger fix, they'll have to dump another $20T and then some.

We've already normalized the "Trillion" number. If we've done 20, why not 100? 500? Everyone will struggle mentally with the idea of adding yet another multiple of thousands to the discussion, and then before you know it we'll have normalized "Quadrillion."

On the topic of $20T... or roughly the equivalent of the US federal debt... Since the birth of christ, in 2020 dollars, you could have spent:
$9.9B a year.
$825M a month.
$27.1M a day
$1.13M an hour

[helmsdale]

On the topic of $20T... or roughly the equivalent of the US federal debt... Since the birth of christ, in 2020 dollars, you could have spent:
$9.9B a year.
$825M a month.
$27.1M a day
$1.13M an hour

Or roughly my family income every 2-3 seconds!

[errolanderson]

"All In". Seems to be a moving target, comparable to how cheap is only half way down.

We have been hearing that central banks are all in, or out of ammunition for so long, only to have them pull another exponentially larger rabbit out of their seemingly bottomless hat.
And no doubt, it requires exponentially more every time.
First world countries are just now getting a taste of civil disobedience, mass riots, anarchy, shortages etc. Why would they purposely unleash that on a world wide scale when they know the simple solution, to kick the can further down the road?

But so long as everyone else is playing by the same rules, it keeps working.

"An economic depression' is the end result of this who-cares-how-much-debt-we-have attitude. Then the value of a dollar takes on a whole new meaning . . . .

[ajl]

AC Brandon ?

Yes Brandon. Had Brandon 3 years ago that went through 3 snow storms and make 303 falling number. This year significantly less than that and no rain in swath.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

"An economic depression' is the end result of this who-cares-how-much-debt-we-have attitude. Then the value of a dollar takes on a whole new meaning . . . .

No disagreement on the inevitable outcome of unsustainable and irresponsible fiscal policies.

But knowing that without a timeline attached, is worse than useless. Anyone living and investing in fear of the promised crash of the US economy and dollar has not been well served, for, basically ever. By the time the US crashes and burns, every other economy will have been a smoldering ruins for years already.

[Guest]

AC Brandon ?

This AC Hughes is 435-450
But they dont care here

[biglentil]

"An economic depression' is the end result of this who-cares-how-much-debt-we-have attitude. Then the value of a dollar takes on a whole new meaning . . . .

That's the mainstream thesis. However there is no such thing as printing prosperity. Without an increase in productivity more dollars chase fewer goods. Thats what we are seeing a decrease in the marginal utility of stimulus and hence stagflation. The idea that dollars are going to gain value is a pipe dream of savers. Unfortunately for savers they are far outnumbered by spenders. For there to be a deflationary depression governments and central banks would all the sudden need to become responsible. Not going to happen.

[biglentil]

"An economic depression' is the end result of this who-cares-how-much-debt-we-have attitude. Then the value of a dollar takes on a whole new meaning . . . .

That's the mainstream thesis. However there is no such thing as printing prosperity. Without an increase in productivity more dollars chase fewer goods. Thats what we are seeing a decrease in the marginal utility of stimulus and hence stagflation. The idea that dollars are going to gain value is a pipe dream of savers. Unfortunately for savers they are far outnumbered by spenders. For there to be a deflationary depression governments and central banks would all the sudden need to become responsible. Not going to happen.

[seldomseen]

My wife just informed me that our highest earning saving account was .01% today!

I guess then next step is us paying then to hold our money.