Watch Global Credit Markets . . . .

[errolanderson]

There may a shake coming down-the-pipe for global credit markets . . . . Liquidity is paramount as any freeze-up in credit (particularly bank to bank) plays a mean card for commodity markets. This may already be in-progress . . . .

Global credit markets were already strained before stock markets swooned recently. Further equity pullback could have a domino-impact as international buyers need ready access to credit to make foreign purchases.

Central banks appear now 'all-in' with forced liquidity supporting credit markets (IMO) . . . .

[ajl]

Does this mean we should see interest rates continue to rise from current levels and we should be 100% sold by now? Sold all my peas and was getting bids for wheat and oats the other day. Problem I have is low falling numbers on the wheat so have to wait until they don't care about falling numbers any more. Nicest harvest in 5 years and still low falling number. Some wheat got some frost. Don't know if that affects falling number or not.

[furrowtickler]

Does this mean we should see interest rates continue to rise from current levels and we should be 100% sold by now? Sold all my peas and was getting bids for wheat and oats the other day. Problem I have is low falling numbers on the wheat so have to wait until they don't care about falling numbers any more. Nicest harvest in 5 years and still low falling number. Some wheat got some frost. Don't know if that affects falling number or not.

AC Brandon ?

[errolanderson]

LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) and SIBOR (Singapore Interbank Offered Rate) are apt to climb.
This is lending rates between financial institutions. This may make bank credit less available.

Personally, can't see bank rates climbing to consumers as this recession appears worsening and would magnify all-ready ballooning bankruptcies (IMO).

Squeeze on the consumer, but now on the banks as well . . . .

[jazz]

Negative rates errol, isnt that the only place left to go?

By my estimation, the covid affected economies of the world printed up some $20T. How can there be a credit crunch with that kind of liquidity in the system?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

"All In". Seems to be a moving target, comparable to how cheap is only half way down.

We have been hearing that central banks are all in, or out of ammunition for so long, only to have them pull another exponentially larger rabbit out of their seemingly bottomless hat.
And no doubt, it requires exponentially more every time.
First world countries are just now getting a taste of civil disobedience, mass riots, anarchy, shortages etc. Why would they purposely unleash that on a world wide scale when they know the simple solution, to kick the can further down the road?

But so long as everyone else is playing by the same rules, it keeps working.

[helmsdale]

Negative rates errol, isnt that the only place left to go?

By my estimation, the covid affected economies of the world printed up some $20T. How can there be a credit crunch with that kind of liquidity in the system?

They'll go negative. They have to!

Just when you think the gig is up and there'll be a restoration of financial sanity in this world, they find a new way to make it even more insane. Much like a druggie needs an ever bigger fix, they'll have to dump another $20T and then some.

We've already normalized the "Trillion" number. If we've done 20, why not 100? 500? Everyone will struggle mentally with the idea of adding yet another multiple of thousands to the discussion, and then before you know it we'll have normalized "Quadrillion."

On the topic of $20T... or roughly the equivalent of the US federal debt... Since the birth of christ, in 2020 dollars, you could have spent:
$9.9B a year.
$825M a month.
$27.1M a day
$1.13M an hour

[helmsdale]

On the topic of $20T... or roughly the equivalent of the US federal debt... Since the birth of christ, in 2020 dollars, you could have spent:
$9.9B a year.
$825M a month.
$27.1M a day
$1.13M an hour

Or roughly my family income every 2-3 seconds!

[errolanderson]

"All In". Seems to be a moving target, comparable to how cheap is only half way down.

We have been hearing that central banks are all in, or out of ammunition for so long, only to have them pull another exponentially larger rabbit out of their seemingly bottomless hat.
And no doubt, it requires exponentially more every time.
First world countries are just now getting a taste of civil disobedience, mass riots, anarchy, shortages etc. Why would they purposely unleash that on a world wide scale when they know the simple solution, to kick the can further down the road?

But so long as everyone else is playing by the same rules, it keeps working.

"An economic depression' is the end result of this who-cares-how-much-debt-we-have attitude. Then the value of a dollar takes on a whole new meaning . . . .

[ajl]

AC Brandon ?

Yes Brandon. Had Brandon 3 years ago that went through 3 snow storms and make 303 falling number. This year significantly less than that and no rain in swath.