Marketing experts opinion please

[malleefarmer]

Have we had what is termed “a key reversal”.

Or has market just topped out or oversold.

Or as many suggest pre elections jitters once result is known either way things will calm down.

In the paddock prices here ain’t really changed to much barley surging and wheats just come off a little.

Spread between wheat and feed barley historically wide somethingbhad to give barley up or wheat down mostly the former

[malleefarmer]

Oh canola has come off $565 on farm plus oil premiums of course.

Cheers have a good weekend

[errolanderson]

Have we had what is termed “a key reversal”.

Or has market just topped out or oversold.

Or as many suggest pre elections jitters once result is known either way things will calm down.

In the paddock prices here ain’t really changed to much barley surging and wheats just come off a little.

Spread between wheat and feed barley historically wide somethingbhad to give barley up or wheat down mostly the former

mallee, we put out an alert on 'ProMarket Wire' this week that grain markets may have peaked for the remainder of 2020 and likely into the 1st quarter of 2021.

CPS red bids have been superb this fall. Flax prices exceeding $17 per bu are now at a decade high. Yellow pea have surged toward $9/bu. But feedlot barley bids have eased about $10/MT this week after recently rocketing higher. Ukraine export wheat prices have eased back slightly. Soybeans have shown a chart reversal (IMO).

Canola's flash crash may be a symptom of a brewing credit problem in global markets. Group . . . there is a serious problem ticking in global credit markets. This could impact trade. Our opinion . . . .

Also the king of commodities (crude oil) lost 10% in just one week. This will impact ethanol processin margins. U.S. corn exports remain strong. Soybeans are showing a slowdown this week.

[malleefarmer]

Another marketing commentator here made interesting remarks this morning. Rather than a boring cut and paste will nutshell it, please not a covid debate.

If covid takes hold over northern hemisphere winter and ir the second wave wether factual or not, what are people gonna eat, not lamb not beef chicken poultry pork all involve slaughter houses and vegetables have to be picked and all have potential covid issues. Wheat bread, flour and more wheat. Wheat has least human interaction of all processed foods.

He was saying hypothetically wheat could be king

[biglentil]

Normal metrics of market analysis do not apply to the extraordinary circumstances we are living in. Shortages at Costco and other retailers are happening again. Though we could see a small correction lots of uncertainty will drive prices higher. If Trump wins expect a flare up in rioting by the radical left coupled with an increase in lockdowns due to covid. If Biden wins expect dollar weakness and a general market collapse coupled with inflation in commodity prices.

[Braveheart]

Did I hear correctly that margin requirements were increased prior to the election (volatility) and that put extra selling pressure in the market as small players had to liquidate positions?

[farmaholic]

Well the tread title eliminates me.

But just to be clear, I'm the self proclaimed expert on everything "Ghetto".

[malleefarmer]

Well the tread title eliminates me.

But just to be clear, I'm the self proclaimed expert on everything "Ghetto".

Never let it be said all opinions valued don’t sell ya self short.

Pardon the pun

[malleefarmer]

So all.

Are the commodity kings that farmers watch still
Oil
Corn
Beans
Wheat
Canola
Cattle

In that order

Russia meaning all
USA
Eu
Argentina

That order as well

Canada Australia yep big in exports but total tonnage mere tadpoles in the pond

[malleefarmer]

Just reading a global weekly wrap up.

Sure to rub some of you up the wrong way.

Basically Russia Black Sea above expectations, EU down. few % tad more maybe USA in line with projected tonnages except corn, corn down, mighty Canada down maybe 5% , Argentina down a few % Australia maybe up depending on harvest weather.

So all in all about what’s expected.

Don’t burn me at the stake with Canada’s 5% down don’t forget backyarditis see plenty guy harvest exceeded expectations in Canada

[errolanderson]

USDA quote over the past week . . . .

“Keep-in-mind that export sales ... do get canceled at times” commented Mark Jekanowski head of USDA’s World Outlook Board.

Translation; China current torrid buying spree of U.S. grains is likely soon to slow. China’s voracious appetite for grain has been the key driver in global markets boosting corn futures above $4 per bu over the past month.

This has been a key driver of western Cdn grains this fall. China export sales might begin to be cancelled for Feb movement (IMO).

[errolanderson]

Panicked feedlot barley buying and surging bids in October appear calming. Feed bids now off about 25 cents/bu from recent higher for December movement. Corn has broken-its-uptrend (IMO) . . . .

[furrowtickler]

Errol what’s you thoughts after election.. either way it goes ?
Or will it really matter regardless who’s in for the grain and oilseeds market?

[errolanderson]

Errol what’s you thoughts after election.. either way it goes ?
Or will it really matter regardless who’s in for the grain and oilseeds market?

Doesn't matter who gets in (IMO) . . it's all about near-term China buying demand.

[furrowtickler]

Doesn't matter who gets in (IMO) . . it's all about near-term China buying demand.

Good to know , thx 👍