Wheat

[farmaholic]

You look like a guru today !

or should I say, your decision, makes you like a guru.

Did you buy a position back on paper, incase wheats worth $3.00/bus more in June?

you know I'm hoping it is !

I'm schtoopit and do schtoopiter things.

No paper whaet to replace it.

The real anal-ysts need to chime in.

I just don't "think" and "feel" the wheat market has any legs under it.

Notice I never said "know".

[farming101]

Supposedly we are to sell in the top third of prices for the marketing period, so good going!
As of last Friday you are in the 94th percentile!

the chart below plots daily price offerings since August 6, 2020 from lowest to highest

https://www.pdqinfo.ca/ https://www.pdqinfo.ca/

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thanks for thhe chart farming101. I'll bookmark that.
The cynic might point out that this marketing year is only 1/3 through. The 94th percentile today could still end up in the bottom third.
Sorry to rain on Farmaholic's parade.

[Rareearth]

Farma might be a “cherry picker” 😊

[farmaholic]

Farma might be a “cherry picker” 😊

Is that the same as a bean flicker? Soybeans....

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Farma might be a “cherry picker” 😊

Course, if it rains on his parade, it might be the only rain he gets, And he will be really grateful to me.

[farming101]

It is entirely appropriate to be a cynic when it comes to grain marketing because it is rare to find somebody or some entity that has altruism and charity as their mandate in the global grain market.

However, when it comes to protecting your rear end there is a balance needed. Being too greedy has hit a lot of guys in the profit margin. Ouch! Thus the statistic(debated, mind you) that two-thirds of the grain is sold in the bottom third of the market.

[farmaholic]

Thanks for thhe chart farming101. I'll bookmark that.
The cynic might point out that this marketing year is only 1/3 through. The 94th percentile today could still end up in the bottom third.
Sorry to rain on Farmaholic's parade.

Hard to believe..... but I'm satisfied with what I got.

.....until, you know....

[Rareearth]

I’m not sure Farma, “bean flicker” ?
Crokinole
Crokinole is a dexterity board game similar in various ways to pitchnut, carrom, marbles, shove ha'penny, with elements of shuffleboard and curling reduced to table-top size.Wikipedia
But in this case it’s better that a bottom picker.

The timing for the run up was likely as good as it could have been to catch a rally? We priced some in the summer for fall movement/ cash flow, glad we didn’t commit more. Or maybe if it started in June when crops looked good it would have been worse?

Thank goodness this rally didn’t start in November or we would have missed a lot of the rally.

Generally commodity traders have way more losing trades than winning ones. When they do have a winning trade ( market timing, trend, fundamentals or technicals or just fluky good luck, etc) you have to let those profits and trades run to maximize profits etc ie trend is your friend, and we haven’t seen solid fundamental to suggest a major shift in the trend. It will take more than one commodity price change of direction to impact all the other commodities.

[malleefarmer]

As mentioned previously last Friday a box buyer came into market $30 above market filled in no time.

Well he re entered market yesterday at $7 below Friday mark still above market.

Broker rang I said if he lifts his bid by $4 will sell more.

Checked international futures trading was only 2 cents up on electronic trading.

Bit more reading ensued about Russian rumour and how market is trading up on nothing, still boggins of wheat in the world and oz is bursting at seams.

Was about to ring broker and say stuff it will let some more go.

Then he rang maybe 40 minutes from first call, he’s getting no willing sellers he’s lifted his bid by the $4 I wanted. Sold some more.

Checked markets a while later to see what trades was wheat was red real red.

So market can really on trade higher on rumour and innuendo rather than actual sis a worry.

[furrowtickler]

Hard to believe..... but I'm satisfied with what I got.

.....until, you know....

The best part is you did what’s right for your farm and you had the complete freedom to do so. It matters not what may or may not happen later to price up or down .
you had the ability to sell whatever quantity you wanted at what price made sense to your farm and you were not handcuffed by a system we once had .

Also you will move 100% of what you sold and get 100% of the money when it works for you , on your terms .

[Challenger007]

The best part is you did what’s right for your farm and you had the complete freedom to do so. It matters not what may or may not happen later to price up or down .
you had the ability to sell whatever quantity you wanted at what price made sense to your farm and you were not handcuffed by a system we once had .

Also you will move 100% of what you sold and get 100% of the money when it works for you , on your terms .

The main thing is to strive for your goal, and not to adapt to everyone in a row. You live for yourself, not for someone else. The ability to do what you want. and not by what is imposed on you - this is one of the main needs.