Canola

[TASFarms]

Flash drop at the opening tonite . . . . March tested a low of $567 per tonne. Commodity markets are as solid as demand holds.

Didn’t the same thing happen when it hit $550

[errolanderson]

[ATTACH]7190[/ATTACH]

Could technicals soon determine nearby direction rather than fun-da-mentals?

Combo of both (IMO) . . . . Corn now appears rolling over due to fallout in ethanol, then technicals kick in to drive selling. Funds have the hammer both up and down.

Remember, canola has already rallied $100 per tonne.

[farmaholic]

Combo of both (IMO) . . . . Corn now appears rolling over due to fallout in ethanol, then technicals kick in to drive selling. Funds have the hammer both up and down.

Remember, canola has already rallied $100 per tonne.

The second comment is probably at the forefront of speculators thoughts as well.

[farmaholic]

One of these times the Funds won't be able to help themselves.

[beaverdam]

Don't have a chart to post, but my memory is telling me that canola as a rule turns soft around mid Dec and normally stays that way till the second week of Jan. With all the strong buying during the last couple weeks, maybe the slump will come a week earlier?

[farmaholic]

RSN21 had a $15/tonne swing today.

[beaverdam]

RSN21 had a $15/tonne swing today.

I'm a bit nervous about holding till July this year, even though some years in the past, we've done very well holding to July. But I also know there are years they won't chase bin bottoms and small amounts, rather than keep bidding it up, they'll drop the price like a rock and shut down for maintenance, if your still holding expect it to drop fast. JMHO
I don't think we'll be holding anything till July this year, last rally might be Mar-Apr this year.

Not making any recommendations. as cottenpickin would say,,, DYOD!

[LEP]

Hope it rains in May.

I would bet 75% of the current year, (20/21) crop has been delivered or contracted.
This is in the first 25% of our crop year.
Record rail movement and shipping

I believe there is down side risk yes, but how far and for how long? Not long. This would creat even more grower selling. Prices are related to supply and demand, if every one sells early, this leaves more time for price strength

Once Sask farmer comes clean and lets us know when he is selling I’ll consider selling the remaining balance on our farm. I assume his vision, savvy, cash flows are as good and better than most.

Hmm, I don't know. If it's like his land where it's worth $2,500 and he wants $4,700. He may be holding out for $23.50 even though the price is $12.50.

[Rareearth]

Hope it rains in May

[farmaholic]

Am I supposed to be bullish again?

Yoyoaholic

[farming101]

Be aware, a number of grain markets are now showing signs-of-cracking . . . including corn, soybeans, soymeal (all trending lower). Wheat futures remain in-a-downtrend.

Demand has to hold or else; soyoil and canola will feel-the-impact (IMO). This is a global market . . . .

Not sure corn is weakening just yet. New highs for spot corn in China

[Rareearth]

Thank you 101, I needed that.

How things change, canola used to be focused on Japan. I haven’t heard a peep about them all fall.


Sounds like there is a new soybean crush plant in the USA that’s going to exclusive new high protein soybeans. Not sure on the agronomics of the new varieties (yields, disease, etc)but this could/would be a evolving game changer in future years(not good for canola or peas). Have to assume with new plant breeding techniques this will happen faster than we have seen in the past.

Another question, are there nematodes that are harmful to canola (yield and quality)in western Canada? Soybeans have SCN, soybean cyst nematodes, would or could they become a factor in the future?
Anyone monitoring ?
Hope it’s not another surprise chick pea type issue, would the best way to monitor this be in the screenings at cleaning plants?