Canola

[Sodbuster]

That’s a bit strange, how long would it take to get canola into export position from your farms? Canada as far as I know takes a long time to get to export position given that we’re landlocked and at the mercy off railways, blockades, strikes and whatever else occurs.

[jazz]

Amazing isnt it the two extremes.

Sounds like a little back door punishment by china.

[malleefarmer]

Sodbuster should have worded it better theres justnot enough shipping capacity.

Ships getting loaded everyday apparently.

But shortage after march.

[malleefarmer]

Sounds like a little back door punishment by china.

Bit of angst from farmers at moment many changed tact telling govt just fix it apologize keep out of covid questioning of china we want our markets back or we will lose them for ever.


Other suggesting stuff em dont send them iron ore which they need we supply i think 80% of high grade of there needs.

Dont think that would help myself.

Ah world trade globalisation gotta love it.

[bucket]

I thought this would be an interesting thread to resurface....and see how things have changed.

[farming101]

A riddle: How can you go wrong selling $17 dollar canola?

[jazz]

A riddle: How can you go wrong selling $17 dollar canola?

By waiting for $20?

I am just wondering if they are beating a dead horse in the trade trying to draw out bushels that dont even exist anymore.

[bucket]

A riddle: How can you go wrong selling $17 dollar canola?

Sure makes any shovelling look like a fun job....I don't grow canola but just to share in the excitement I might help a neighbour shovel bin bottoms...each shovelful would be worth about what 6 bucks????

[Guest]

18$ canola april here

[Rareearth]

After yesterday’s....... event, FFF

There will be big canola sales of remaining unsold inventories today

Then 99.5 % of canola stocks on farm will be sold.
Then
Exporters will raise prices slowly and steady to encourage importers to buy now, for many reasons (main one is drought) and the first official new crop production estimate (by me ) of 17 mmt,
feel free to quote that,😊
This will allow exporters to “enhance” ( code for maximize) margins,

This is what the Potash producers do, sort of. They aren’t opening the one mine yet..... yet( need to squeeze some more)

China buys a lot of potash right,

[bucket]

After yesterday’s....... event, FFF

There will be big canola sales of remaining unsold inventories today

Then 99.5 % of canola stocks on farm will be sold.
Then
Exporters will raise prices slowly and steady to encourage importers to buy now, for many reasons (main one is drought) and the first official new crop production estimate (by me ) of 17 mmt,
feel free to quote that,😊
This will allow exporters to “enhance” ( code for maximize) margins,

This is what the Potash producers do, sort of. They aren’t opening the one mine yet..... yet( need to squeeze some more)

China buys a lot of potash right,

They do but the Ukraine has potash mines as well...

[furrowtickler]

By waiting for $20?

I am just wondering if they are beating a dead horse in the trade trying to draw out bushels that dont even exist anymore.

ADM specials continue to get filled within an hour , so for now the crushers are still finding enough.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

A riddle: How can you go wrong selling $17 dollar canola?

They say every marketing decision is wrong. You either sold too much ( price goes up), or too little ( price goes down).
I made my first marketing decision for 2020 crop yesterday. Put out a small target way above the market and well above the eventual closing price, and it hit mid day. Looking at todays futures, it appears I sold too much already...

[Sodbuster]

Canola looks to e locked limit up today, if it stays that way to close there will be some real fireworks tomorrow.

[jazz]

ADM specials continue to get filled within an hour , so for now the crushers are still finding enough.

Is this a tug of war between crushers and exporters? I have never seen price action like this in all my life. This is almost a double from the prices we sold from 2019 crop yr.

1970s?