Canola

[AlbertaFarmer5]

In dollar terms? ♾

If you could predict the canola price relative to how much land and fertilizer it will buy, that would be a much more useful metric. Thanks in advance.

[LWeber]

18 bucks triggered this morning.
How high will it go?

Everyone needs a Beth...

[LWeber]

$19.60 del May

This is going to make June 1994 seem like a picnic with virgins and nuns and 2021 seem like a rodeo with Beth at Yellowstone.

$19.78 delivered July this morning at Ft SK

$20.01 delivered August 1-15

Who was first to sell $20.00/bu??

[fjlip]

$19.78 delivered July this morning at Ft SK

$20.01 delivered August 1-15

How was first to sell $20.00/bu??

Where are we going??? INFINITELY HIGHER! Soon be like stepping HARDER on the gas of a not running vehicle, nothing happens.

[beaverdam]

Where are we going??? INFINITELY HIGHER! Soon be like stepping HARDER on the gas of a not running vehicle, nothing happens.

I think it's more like they tried stepping on the brakes(Jan 15th) and (Feb 24th) and the car keeps going,,, faster.


BTW, have the retail prices of canola oils gone up in the store? Bought a couple Becel last week, still less than $4/tub.

[macdon02]

If its 19.50 a bushel now and some sold at 11.50 a bushel the grain co made 8.00 a bushel plus they jacked fertilizer a few hundred a tonne !

**** this is stupid !

and don't come to the farm and tell me hindsight is 20/20 !

It doesn't work that way. It's a turd floating down a river already. What you refer to is speculation and in this environment it's absolutely toxic to grain cos and endusers. You are much more likely to see purchasers go broke then get rich with wild gyrations in price. The sale happens first, then the offsetting hedge(you'll see it in futures) and finally the bid which is minus their cost of handle. If this wasn't the case, when price collapses you'd entirely wipe out the grain handling industry, it never happens, only on the way up because of the way the desk positions or speculates, which is a no no. The long term trend is sell every rally until it isn't. There's more to this then a 1 and done rally, it's long term cycles combined with some absolutely idiotic unicorn piss ideology, yet to be announced, it's being whispered yesterday and today.

[Partners]

Other than local crushers.
RP rep says chinia buying all export canola.
We have heard that they have bought 50% of bly for fall delivery.
so what is their game plan?
Should we be scared yet?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Other than local crushers.
RP rep says chinia buying all export canola.
We have heard that they have bought 50% of bly for fall delivery.
so what is their game plan?
Should we be scared yet?

I'm just not sure what we should be scared of.
Is China stockpiling in preparation for a war?
Or should we be scared of running out of domestic supply for our own livestock needs?

[Rareearth]

Partners, I just read this, Europe buying more than China, I think that’s rather reassuring 😊

“ European ****seed futures hit their highest value since 2012 as the May contract closed at 516.5 Euros per tonne. European ****seed stocks dropped to 8.7 million tonnes in January, which was down 400,000 tonnes from last year. This likely means that European demand for Canadian canola will be strong through the end of the crop year. This is one of the reasons that Canadian futures values are in rally mode is that supplies are being pulled out of the Prairies from both the east and west coast markets. Canola exports to Europe for the crop year to the end of January was 1.476 million tonnes which is slightly larger than the purchases from China.”

[biglentil]

I'm just not sure what we should be scared of.
Is China stockpiling in preparation for a war?
Or should we be scared of running out of domestic supply for our own livestock needs?

China is exiting the US dollar. How do you exit? By taking physical delivery of commodities of course.

[beaverdam]

Dryness wallops Argentina's soy crop forecast, more cuts expected

https://leaderpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/dryness-wallops-argentinas-soy-crop-forecast-more-cuts-expected https://leaderpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/dryness-wallops-argentinas-soy-crop-forecast-more-cuts-expected

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I see palm oil made a new high today. After multiple attempts.

[Rareearth]

Strong global demand for vegetable oils pushed prices up after yesterday’s sell-off. There were sharp hikes in Chicago soyoil, Malaysian palm oil and European ****seed.

How does one think of the volumes that are traded daily on the ICE ?
Is there a disconnect in markets like these where the exporters stop using ICE for hedges and they just buy the physical? Seems to be a big disconnect between futures activities and the premiums and discounts for basis ( vs futures and grain company bid/offers).

If basis is normally freight, handling, elevation, profit and it’s normally -$25 to -$50 under the futures price, how can they post premium of + $60 ton ?

Point is 2 sets of books for the exporter, one more or less “public” using futures, and another set of books and rules for purchases and export sales.

[beaverdam]

A few years back I was talking with one of our local grainco input retailers, a good guy who is honest and likeable. I was commiserating to him about seeing the "posted" canola crush margins of $55-65/t, and suggesting they're taking too much from the farmer, as the basis was quite wide at the time. He kinda laughed at me and said the true margins were likely more than 3 times the amount I was speaking about.
Slip up, cat outta the bag I don't know,,, I still don't know.

[furrowtickler]

Partners, I just read this, Europe buying more than China, I think that’s rather reassuring 😊

“ European ****seed futures hit their highest value since 2012 as the May contract closed at 516.5 Euros per tonne. European ****seed stocks dropped to 8.7 million tonnes in January, which was down 400,000 tonnes from last year. This likely means that European demand for Canadian canola will be strong through the end of the crop year. This is one of the reasons that Canadian futures values are in rally mode is that supplies are being pulled out of the Prairies from both the east and west coast markets. Canola exports to Europe for the crop year to the end of January was 1.476 million tonnes which is slightly larger than the purchases from China.”

Strange how GMO canola is no longer an issue ...