Canola

[Sodbuster]

I’m hoping to see basis drop to under -15 in the April to July period assuming crushing and exporting continues at current rate., barring any blockages or strikes.

[farming101]

5 under for May del self haul to the plant. Have sold a bit into that

[farmaholic]

I didn't think canola could transmit Covid-19

[farmaholic]

5 under for May del self haul to the plant. Have sold a bit into that

Some components of what made up my specialty canola premium over commodity canola are shrinking.
Difference in basis between the two, the locked in positive basis is set in stone but the usual negative basis of commodity canola might shrink as the marketing year continues. And there isn't much carry in the futures out to July which my basis is locked in against.

I don't think I hit it yet



Not that I know of.

[farming101]

The basis is fixed? You don't add a basis premium to whatever the regular basis is at the time?

[farmaholic]

My contract: fixed basis over July contract. No adding positive and negative basis to net positive. Only positive!!!

How I see it as being even better:

Fixed basis, add the usual negative commodity canola basis plus the carry in the market between nearby and July.

$500 futures. Let's say the fixed basis is positive $50. A regular basis is usually a negative value, say $30. And lets give the market $10 in carry.

Early(Oct to Dec) commodity canola pricing:

$500 - $30 = $470

Late(July) specialty canola pricing:

$510 + $50 = $560

A difference of $70.

I kinda see the negative basis in commodity canola as a gain in specialty canola pricing because it isn't deducted off specialty pricing( debatable theory) And carry is a given fact.....until there is very little or an inverse which we are seeing now.

Clear as mud?

[farming101]

Think so....
Cargill specialty canola has the basis premium as an addition to whatever their basis for the day is for generic.

Just add the premium to the price of the day.
Example: April delivery is +56 so today the April price is 553.90 + 56 = 609.90

[farmaholic]

I think Richardson's specialty crush is the same as you describe.

But only a schtoopit foolaholic would want to be in a Clearfield Nexera program like I am, unlike Richardson's or Cargill's

[farming101]

Figure this out:

April del 9 under May
May del 5 under May
June del 25 under July
July del 23 under July

Either they know something or they are going to shut the generic line down for the summer or someone is asleep at the wheel

Exports are 1,112,100 tonnes ahead of last year at this time

[farmaholic]

Some GrainCos can choose to export their purchases or crush them domestically. I would think they would do what was more profitable. Those numbers make it look like they WANT IT NOW. ALSO, take into account there is an inverse or very little carry in the market and it screams that "WANT IT NOW" even louder.

S/U appear to be heading quite low. Pipeline supplies?

[farmaholic]

Looks good

[bucket]

Sold all the canola off the combine

Good luck to all !

Did you buy back paper?

[bucket]

No never !

Took the money and ran !

Well ...WTF....Mr. Wisenheimer ...you are not following the experts advice????

sarcasm...just in case you missed it.

[bucket]

Had a very dry year

No July rain

Yields were well below average

All canola was sold off combine

End of sad story !

But you can make it up with agristability or pulling your agri-invest along with the CEBA.... right?

Just poking with more sarcasm.

[Sodbuster]

Canola looking to go inverse
May -July already inverse
Soybeans already inverse
Buyers are wanting soybeans and canola now, just need demand to remain stable to see prices in the teens.