Canola

[malleefarmer]

Funny today overnight moves in futures put canola up $8 but cash prices down $6.

Was down $3 at 6 am with live prices come off another $3 since only two buyers at moment.

Mine all priced and delivered except May 30 to 40 t yet to be harvested was miles away.

[farmaholic]

Well we are only about $10/ tonne away from $600!

Only thing is, I didn't think RSF21 would get there before RSN21.

About a $17 inverse at the moment.

[farmaholic]

Looking at ICE Futures, I would describe the canola market as being in "the here and now"

What signals are you getting for delivery or pricing?

I imagine basis may widen as futures continue to climb, just taking a bit bigger piece of what has been a growing pie. Unless someone is short and really needs supply.

If there are Western Canadian production problems will we see carry in the market again until supply becomes "adequate"?

At what point do growers consider locking in some tonnes for new crop? If there is a production problem, look out. We will be ending the current marketing year with a bit of light at the end of the supply pipeline.

My goodness, it's only been 2- 1/2 to 3 months since new crop supplies were available and look where we are....with a long way to go to Sept 2022 when new crop becomes more widely available.

What could possibly go wrong!?!?!?!?!?!?

[shtferbrains]

Your saying you see more up side than down side?

How about dollars?

I'll say less than $1.50 down side worst case.

Maybe $5.00 up side if plants have to idle back?

But I don't have any skin in the game. I can say anything with no concerns!

[farmaholic]

I was just posting food for thought.

$5 upside seems unrealistically high,
$1.50 downside seems more realistic but I am not saying it's going to happen any time soon. But I am not a "fortune" teller.

[jazz]

My goodness, it's only been 2- 1/2 to 3 months since new crop supplies were available and look where we are....with a long way to go to Sept 2022 when new crop becomes more widely available.

What could possibly go wrong!?!?!?!?!?!?

You mean 2021 right farma?

As a former flax grower, I have found that prices can be explosive when supply and demand get out of whack. There have been yrs where flax has sold for $5 more a bushel than historically. Its there right now.

Typically also when tarrifs and penalties are applied like China tried to do, that dissuaded some production and then you get a weather wild card like we just had 2 yrs in a row.

Whatever supply problems exist, will Canada be able to make it up in a single season? The odds would be low.

There is something hidden in the canola complex, who is the urgent buyers (probably china through the back door) and what is the real shortage.

Not locking in.

[farmaholic]

Lol, yes Jazz, I meant 2021, but if there is 2021 production problems......2022 becomes relevant.

MY BAD.

[jazz]

Lol, yes Jazz, I meant 2021, but if there is 2021 production problems......2022 becomes relevant.

MY BAD.

We are 1/3 through the winter almost and soil moisture is still low. That dump of snow we had is slowly going everyday here and will be bare ground in a week.

Dont see much in the forecast. We can still get a dump in march yet. But the odds of excess moisture in the spring are not promising as it stands.

[Partners]

When the fall of 21 prices get higher than today. Then everyone is worried.

[Oliver88]

Well we are only about $10/ tonne away from $600!

Only thing is, I didn't think RSF21 would get there before RSN21.

About a $17 inverse at the moment.

Closing in on $600......

[farmaholic]

What is Canada's "peak canola"? (Inspired by burnt's "peak Canada" tread, that's what I thought it was about at first glance)

When moisture is good through-out the Western Canada, not too dry in typically arid areas and not too wet in typically moist areas and rotations aren't pushed to the max...... on average, what is Western Canada capable of? What was the Canola Council's target again?

[wheatsnowcanola]

So when does one start selling new crop?