Canola

[woodland]

Woodland singles are good, home runs matter.

Locking in profits, difficult to get ahead when you have cost of production numbers that never trigger a profit. 3 bad years and 1 good then locking in or limiting upside is not appealing to me.

Marketing, selling, hedging, storing, etc and timing is about:
- the trend
-basis
- most importantly fundamentals , ill wait and make my decisions with best information I can gather at the time. Seems very little to no risk with waiting right now
- cash flow

At least with grain you can lock the bins and sit if your cash situation allows it. Nothing like feeding a bunch of yearlings as the price keeps sliding when nobody expected it. After putting 6 more months of feed in them you finally have no choice but to get taken out behind the woodshed and get less per head than at the start. Sure leaves a sour taste behind. Must not have been too horrible since we’re still doing it.

And waiting for the price to come back again currently. Kinda was looking forward to selling this year as there’s 15% more heads but the gross is looking to be less than last year which was ......... ok.

Next year country baby🍀

[SASKFARMER]

Did one thing right got a decent basis a while back on Jan for dec delivery. 13 is in sight. Now I finally did something right.

Ha will sell at 12.85 or higher not waiting for 13. Don’t want to jinx it.

[beaverdam]

from "Seasonal Canola" thread;

farming101, "December could move to nearly 38/cwt based on today's strength. It would be ripe for a pullback at that level.
And remember, as usual the reality may turn out to be somewhat different"

Seeing we're at 38.48, any revised thoughts, or tidbit of news that is going to keep this thing rolling?

[farming101]

Dec hit 38.73 so far today moving through 38 with great aplomb

Jan basically is the front month now as Dec contract begins to wind down quickly next week

Watching for close above 37.95 on Friday - positive

39.57 Jan will knock out the latest short term downtrend pattern

40.69 is super long term resistance

Also today, 562.20 taken out in July 21 Canola

[beaverdam]

Pretty common to be 40 cents or a lot higher between 2007 and the first half of 2014.

My chart shows the highest close on monthlys at 68.15 cents

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZLZ20/interactive-chart https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZLZ20/interactive-chart

[farming101]

Pretty common to be 40 cents or a lot higher between 2007 and the first half of 2014.

My chart shows the highest close on monthlys at 68.15 cents

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZLZ20/interactive-chart https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZLZ20/interactive-chart

Bought some Dec bean oil 55 puts on June 26 08. The closing price that day was 67.46

May 5 2014 price went under the median line and hasn't been above it since, so if it goes over it will be notable, but not historic

[beaverdam]

Don't often see canola green, while beans and oil are both red.

[furrowtickler]

Don't often see canola green, while beans and oil are both red.

Sign of it being topped out for now ?

[beaverdam]

Beans and bean oil now turning green.

[farming101]

2nd chart commitment of traders - number of traders active by week, total and by type

[malleefarmer]

Miss the odd day whens the last time had a fall of more than $

[farming101]

Nov 16 Jan went down $1.20
UP something like 27/39 days

[malleefarmer]

All markets here getting decidely toppy. Wheat barley canola beans lupins basically range bound now in @ $5 to $10 range depending on commodity.

Aussie crop is darn huge.

Internationally maybe market is similar.

All eyes on corn for direction some think here

[farming101]

World canola/-apeseed stocks and stocks to use ratios

[farmaholic]

Industry/Buyers probably doesn't like to see the light at the end of the pipeline!


At what price, will price ration demand?

Any 2021 production problems could make markets interesting.