Canola

[Rareearth]

One does have to wonder what sales have been made, and what % of the crop is unsold?

Mallee do you guys have any such stats?

[farming101]

While percentage sold is good to know; it is also good to perceive whether demand is intensifying or waning.
If demand gets covered and buyers back off it matters not that farmers have some left to sell.

[crusher]

I'm 85% sold on a 60% of normal crop. A little drop will help me buy back some hedges put on a long time ago. I mean a short time ago but a long way down.

[malleefarmer]

One does have to wonder what sales have been made, and what % of the crop is unsold?

Mallee do you guys have any such stats?

Probably find out.

My guess would be mostly sold some of the later huge yielding areas are just starting but I’m sure they foward contracted when prices were $600 plus base price

[Rareearth]

I agree 101,

I’m certain that there has been big farmer selling into the deferred months ( for the price premium and cash flow needs later, seed, fert, land payments etc) so Grain companies will have some coverage. The grain companies will tell us they always hedge sales, some how I don’t believe this (currency probably). Are they net long or short? Big sales over normal or not, that’s the true measure of demand, show us the data.

It’s easy to talk about demand, record shipping volumes, excellent railway cooperation, etc.

If our May rainfall is half of the rain we received in July and August, expect 12,000 MT canola production. The domestic crushers might need to switch to soybeans, or...... ...? This is the missing narrative today. Yes it’s early, that record snow fall blew into Minnisota, we can see black dirt in our fields. Snow contributes to sloughs - Not field surface or subsoil moisture! Snow is a pain, we live and survive with growing season precipitation.

We do live in interesting times ( not the curse)

[Rareearth]

No lack of data in regards to Covid.

[malleefarmer]

8am here.

Live bids for all grains start at 5.30 am

Not a single bid today for canola other than a feed mill about $25 below the market.

Not sure if buyers are waiting watching or they have accumulated all canola needed for moment in marketing programmes.

All we know is ships of canola going out , to se Asia apparently.

[farming101]

Uncharted waters. When was the last time January was inverse to July to the tune of 17.60 on this date?
How about never. I might be wrong. Someone find it please.

[LEP]

8am here.

Live bids for all grains start at 5.30 am

Not a single bid today for canola other than a feed mill about $25 below the market.

Not sure if buyers are waiting watching or they have accumulated all canola needed for moment in marketing programmes.

All we know is ships of canola going out , to se Asia apparently.

Difference between your market and ours is that you have had a good run up and are alittle ahead of us. I expect they will be buying once we catch up pricewise. But in the mean time no one feels the need to be any more long than they are now at harvest, with a bumper crop coming off.

[malleefarmer]

Funny today overnight moves in futures put canola up $8 but cash prices down $6.

Was down $3 at 6 am with live prices come off another $3 since only two buyers at moment.

Mine all priced and delivered except May 30 to 40 t yet to be harvested was miles away.

[farmaholic]

Well we are only about $10/ tonne away from $600!

Only thing is, I didn't think RSF21 would get there before RSN21.

About a $17 inverse at the moment.

[farmaholic]

Looking at ICE Futures, I would describe the canola market as being in "the here and now"

What signals are you getting for delivery or pricing?

I imagine basis may widen as futures continue to climb, just taking a bit bigger piece of what has been a growing pie. Unless someone is short and really needs supply.

If there are Western Canadian production problems will we see carry in the market again until supply becomes "adequate"?

At what point do growers consider locking in some tonnes for new crop? If there is a production problem, look out. We will be ending the current marketing year with a bit of light at the end of the supply pipeline.

My goodness, it's only been 2- 1/2 to 3 months since new crop supplies were available and look where we are....with a long way to go to Sept 2022 when new crop becomes more widely available.

What could possibly go wrong!?!?!?!?!?!?

[shtferbrains]

Your saying you see more up side than down side?

How about dollars?

I'll say less than $1.50 down side worst case.

Maybe $5.00 up side if plants have to idle back?

But I don't have any skin in the game. I can say anything with no concerns!

[farmaholic]

I was just posting food for thought.

$5 upside seems unrealistically high,
$1.50 downside seems more realistic but I am not saying it's going to happen any time soon. But I am not a "fortune" teller.

[jazz]

My goodness, it's only been 2- 1/2 to 3 months since new crop supplies were available and look where we are....with a long way to go to Sept 2022 when new crop becomes more widely available.

What could possibly go wrong!?!?!?!?!?!?

You mean 2021 right farma?

As a former flax grower, I have found that prices can be explosive when supply and demand get out of whack. There have been yrs where flax has sold for $5 more a bushel than historically. Its there right now.

Typically also when tarrifs and penalties are applied like China tried to do, that dissuaded some production and then you get a weather wild card like we just had 2 yrs in a row.

Whatever supply problems exist, will Canada be able to make it up in a single season? The odds would be low.

There is something hidden in the canola complex, who is the urgent buyers (probably china through the back door) and what is the real shortage.

Not locking in.