Canola

[Rareearth]

Get rid of all of he noise, basis, currency, deferred, soybeans, skippy, futures, etc

What’s the highest canola price you personally received per bushel at the farm?

And

What’s the highest price you’ve ever heard of - verified or trustworthy?

Mine $14
Best I’ve heard, $16.25 bu

[Sodbuster]

About 12 years ago before I went on holidays in March realizing I had not priced any canola that year yet I stopped at Cargill and put 3 market orders in for canola, $17.00, $17.50 and $18.00, picked them all up while I was gone on holidays. Had I not put them orders in before I left i would of missed those prices.

[Oliver88]

How short are the crushers?

[fjlip]

Can go up, but not to the moon. Traders need to make more money going down. Negative spin can turn on a dime. IF the vaccines KILL people....RUN! Good luck to all. Definitely non typical markets, thanks China/Auzzie spat, dryness, reduced crop, Euro demand..

[shtferbrains]

How short are the crushers?

Booking deliveries on Saturday at Nipawin. A bit unusual.

[GDR]

Get rid of all of he noise, basis, currency, deferred, soybeans, skippy, futures, etc

What’s the highest canola price you personally received per bushel at the farm?

And

What’s the highest price you’ve ever heard of - verified or trustworthy?

Mine $14
Best I’ve heard, $16.25 bu

First year I grew canola I got $5.58 per bushel. Highest I've sold for was a bit over 16, pretty big spread between the extremes. Today elevator is 13.56 here.

[farming101]

Amazing day in the futures. Had to look twice when prices came back..

Some thoughts. There is not a shortage of canola yet. At least not everywhere. 1.6 MMT in commercial hands. Basis for Jan delivery is just plain ugly in some areas. Around -50
From Tuesday Dec 8 to Dec 15 Commercials lightened up by 19,975 long positions and 18,279 short positions to move to net 61,765 short.
2 more specs joined the fray and the spec longs are up another 2,096 contracts. Net long position is 61,436. I don't think too many more spec accounts are going to show up. Max long?
If end users gain confidence that their needs can be met at these prices there may be a bit of a setback in here for the nearby months. Inverse may shrink a bit.
In short, steady to slightly lower next week is my guess.
And honestly I have no idea where this might top out. The situation in South America seems to indicate strength in world markets for a few weeks yet. Ukrainian canola supplies are said to be dwindling. That will support Canola. Fresh Australia exports may give end users some confidence.
The conditions for planting the 2021 canola crop will gain more attention than usual. This should support the July contract and new crop Nov till significant moisture arrives.
Should just forget about charts under these conditions....
Resistance would be the high for today, then 629.20.
Support at 611, 592, 585.80

[FarmJunkie]

Thanks for info 101. The more guys I talk to the more I hear that are out of canola or are priced out already. Not sure how this stand off will end but don’t see it dropping to quick if the pipeline has barely enuf to keep it running. I can see 11.50 canola for next fall being a give away if it don’t rain next June......and it’s gotta rain significantly and timely. 2-3 tenth rains aren’t gonna produce big yields.

[Blaithin]

[farmaholic]

Now now Blaitin, don't rub salt in open wounds. Glad to say mine isn't gaping as wide as it could be.

I realize (I hope) you mean it in good fun, looks like meme was created by Kowalchuk Farms.

I wish I'd known.

[Blaithin]

Now now Blaitin, don't rub salt in open wounds. Glad to say mine isn't gaping as wide as it could be.

I realize (I hope) you mean it in good fun, looks like meme was created by Kowalchuk Farms.

I wish I'd known.

Yes, John made the meme laughing at himself. I know a few guys who are stuck in between laughing and crying at themselves. What can a person do!

[seldomseen]

Get rid of all of he noise, basis, currency, deferred, soybeans, skippy, futures, etc

What’s the highest canola price you personally received per bushel at the farm?

And

What’s the highest price you’ve ever heard of - verified or trustworthy?

Mine $14
Best I’ve heard, $16.25 bu

June of 1984 canola hit 16.00 momentarily. Remember the day clearly and it cost very little to grow back then. Only problem was didn't have a lot left to sell. Hot and dry that spring across the midwest sparked the rally.

[farmaholic]

Yes, John made the meme laughing at himself. I know a few guys who are stuck in between laughing and crying at themselves. What can a person do!

Even taking a position on paper is a gamble, at a cost, that know one knows what the end result will be.

It is what it is.... time for another monkey face-palming picture?

[farming101]

A position, yes there is a gamble.
But an option to buy a position whether long or short is not a gamble. It is insurance
And often the value of that option can appreciate prior to the deadline to exercise.

It is not as lucrative as taking an equal size position by buying or selling a futures contract but it can make a significant difference.

[zeefarmer]

Things can go wrong in the bin too. We carried some canola over from 2019. Swathed and dry. We had cored the bins and consolidated in July. Good till October....😢