Canola

[jazz]

They say every marketing decision is wrong. You either sold too much ( price goes up), or too little ( price goes down).
I made my first marketing decision for 2020 crop yesterday. Put out a small target way above the market and well above the eventual closing price, and it hit mid day. Looking at todays futures, it appears I sold too much already...

Gezus AF, you have the patience of Job himself. I hope I never see you at the poker table.

[blackpowder]

Gezus AF, you have the patience of Job himself. I hope I never see you at the poker table.

He just admitted to farming with cash.
Or was joking.

[bucket]

Paid for land means you are farming with cash. IMHO

[shtferbrains]

For the chart guys here will we see this market start to gap up? If so what will cause it to happen?

Does that always look like a rocket pattern as it comes back down?

Any advice to participants if that happens?

[farming101]

No need for gaps higher. Limit ups and downs destroy markets if you ask me.
Someone blinked in the March pit. It's trading again

Watch the active months May and July. And new crop.
IN '08 the May contract lost $120 in 4 days. Locked limit down 4 days in a row

Specifications now allow for expanded limits if two months are locked limit. 45 then 60

[Sodbuster]

I remember that year well, put 3 targets in before I got on a plane to Punta Cana and hit all 3 targets while on holidays, it moved up and down so fast that I wasn’t sure whether all my targets were hit until I got home.

[farming101]

The plant is now at +62 basis for July delivery.

They say the last thing they put through the plant before they shut it off is the buyers

[blackpowder]

Paid for land means you are farming with cash. IMHO

However he's doing it fine with me.
Heck, he may have mortgaged it at bank and speculated on feed and cattle like i used to.
I've always said let a farmer talk for 30 seconds and you'll know how much debt he has.

Sometimes i forget that most on Agriville are playing with old money or did everything right prior to '03.
I just feel its a shame not to have dollars working harder for you than that.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

He just admitted to farming with cash.
Or was joking.

It just means I am exceedingly cheap by necessity. Storing crop, and prebuying everything else pays way better than shiny equipment.
Only debt is land debt, and I've haven't had the pleasure of inheriting any land.

[jazz]

It just means I am exceedingly cheap by necessity. Storing crop, and prebuying everything else pays way better than shiny equipment.
Only debt is land debt, and I've haven't had the pleasure of inheriting any land.

Sounds like you need some tax deductions. Can I interest you in a solar array?

[Sodbuster]

November futures gained $16.00 today, starting to look attractive to lock in a few bushels soon.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

While canola is being taken to the woodshed, Palm oil has gone up to within a whisker of its previous highs.
It is supposed to be doing the opposite at this time of year.

Meal prices don't seem to be justifying prices this high. But oils have doubled. Soy oil was up almost 5% just in one session earlier this week, closing slightly off that.
What do the chartists think, pause, or top is in?
Not historically the correct time of year for a top. But trending more this way in recent years, followed by another peak in spring/early summer.

[bucket]

While canola is being taken to the woodshed, Palm oil has gone up to within a whisker of its previous highs.
It is supposed to be doing the opposite at this time of year.

Meal prices don't seem to be justifying prices this high. But oils have doubled. Soy oil was up almost 5% just in one session earlier this week, closing slightly off that.
What do the chartists think, pause, or top is in?
Not historically the correct time of year for a top. But trending more this way in recent years, followed by another peak in spring/early summer.

Seems this happened last month as well , just shake a few weak hands loose...and up again...but it could be the highs have been set..

I dont think all farmers shared in this rally , most were probably sold on the way up...but it was for production not previously committed. Now the graincos have to sort out the logistics....

Maybe their books are full ....

[AlbertaFarmer5]

When the markets goes up at the end of the day Friday, instead of selling off as usual, it must say something.
Either that most participants are short, so the risk off trade for the weekend is to cover, or else that they see the biggest risk of the unknown over the weekend to be a risk to the upside? Or something else?

Quite a turn around in canola, and soyoil, and soys today.

[TOM4CWB]

When the markets goes up at the end of the day Friday, instead of selling off as usual, it must say something.
Either that most participants are short, so the risk off trade for the weekend is to cover, or else that they see the biggest risk of the unknown over the weekend to be a risk to the upside? Or something else?

Quite a turn around in canola, and soyoil, and soys today.

AND CDN$... adds to it... China politics?