$700/tone canola

[SASKFARMER]

13 in our area for May. Now it's in the 12s.

lots went with the lovely fall bids at 10 to 11.

We will be at 50% by end of Jan. Most will be gone by April or May.

Yes, 700 is possible as china needs to feed the pigs.

SA is dry and unless the rains come it will be a shit show.

The USA will be sold out of Beans sooner than later.

2021 could be interesting.

Oh, wait western Canada is dry. They forgot about that.

[bucket]

Oh, wait western Canada is dry. They forgot about that.

Wait for Townsend to say "... we have never lost a crop in January february march folks so dont panic..."

What I would like to start seeing is the forward sales for the 2021 crop and the sales to finish moving the 2020 crop....

Then a guy can actually make bankable decisions...

Guessing what to grow or trying to grow every crop just in case is just a casino...

[SASKFARMER]

He is right we never lost a crop in Jan FEB or March but when you're dry as **** going into the fall and winter snow really doesn't do anything. Its April showers bring may crop growth.

But you still need an inch after seeding an inch after spraying and an inch in July and an inch at exhibition week and you will have a bumper.

[MBgrower]

As the market analyst experts usually say, western canada yields and weather dont have an impact on world grain markets. Nothing to see here.

[Rareearth]

You are bang on Bucket.

Growers don’t have a mechanism to hedge the risk of pre pricing or selling the crops they grow:
Yes farmers can use futures and options
yes farmers can use exporter contracts
Those are both physical and paper mechanisms. What if there is a drought, hail, insects, disease, political, logistical issues? How do growers hedge that, and crop insurance or agristabilty don’t cut it. Those are insurance programs.

Growers need information, to make the correct decisions, analyzing opportunities and risks. This is the one piece of information that is missing for growers to help mitigate this risk.

Let’s look at this year, and use canola as the example:
- 20,000,000 mt production roughly
- Roughly 25% through our marketing year (3 months of 12, I understand aug 1, but new crop isn’t available until sept 1)
- Roughly 7,000,000 mt grower deliveries so far according to CGC
- NOW The question “What are the rest of the volumes the crushers have purchased or the exporters contracted”?
- at the current producer deliveries should run out of canola by May
- it’s not ok for the crushers and exporters to hold hostage growers with their “internal” analysis, maximizing there profits with information growers cannot access. Why would the exporters and crushers not want sales reporting? How could this harm their current business? How can the USA do this and still have a thriving export system?

Futures are not enough, nor are exporter or crusher forward contracts or internal futures hedge / pricing programs.

What % of this crop(2020) has been physically, sold through contract to importers or domestic users?

What % of (2021) crop has been sold?

It looks like price rationing needs to happen to slow down usage. This isn’t happening, the canola buyers are holding back price offers to growers buying creating “positions” that growers can’t make informed decisions with.

Etc

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Everyone should be 50% sold of 2020's crop. If you don't like $12 nearby price then book something for May/June with 35-40 cents more. If the price is fortunate to keep rising you can always price 10-15% more a couple times and keep averaging up.

I fear another big stock market crash/correction coming in the very near future. Many have been able to manage finances but a second shutdown/slowdown will cause a lot of bankruptcies

Well then I'm way behind. Haven't even considered 2020 crop yet. What percent of 2019 crop should be priced by now? I just finished selling 2017 and 2018, unfortunately, too early in this rally. Seemed like a great opportunity at the time though.

[Rareearth]

There is a real probability that this would make the CGC statistics more reliable and timely. Reporting should be for all grains. The CGC could be functional and provide a valuable service for industry again (and tax payers, who help fund and stabilize through insurance programming for ag industry) vs select portions of the value chain.

Why wouldn’t the CGC lobby for this?

Why wouldn’t producer groups?

Apps?

NFU?

Provincial Ag dept.

This would provide forecasting, demand for the railways to plan- execute rail car needs, as well for the rest of the supply chain.

[jazz]

Lots is uncertainty ahead , but stocks may be very thin come June?

June? By the action in the trade I figure by April stocks get thin.

And now that they are trying to draw out bushels early to get ahead of that, producers are probably seeing that, probably hold on longer.

The markets and commentators are transparent as can be. They did the exact same thing last yr to keep prices in check. Run out of #1 supply in march, then start buying heated stuff and blending it in, then get to the seeding season and start peppering the news with stories of a bumper crop to bridge the summer gap. They drew a lot of presellers in to the charade in early August dumping crop for $2 less than it is now.

[Guest]

There is a real probability that this would make the CGC statistics more reliable and timely. Reporting should be for all grains. The CGC could be functional and provide a valuable service for industry again (and tax payers, who help fund and stabilize through insurance programming for ag industry) vs select portions of the value chain.

Why wouldn’t the CGC lobby for this?

Why wouldn’t producer groups?

Apps?

NFU?

Provincial Ag dept.
Because theyre masters wont let them
This would provide forecasting, demand for the railways to plan- execute rail car needs, as well for the rest of the supply chain.

Because theyre masters wont let them

[AlbertaFarmer5]

June? By the action in the trade I figure by April stocks get thin.

And now that they are trying to draw out bushels early to get ahead of that, producers are probably seeing that, probably hold on longer.

The markets and commentators are transparent as can be. They did the exact same thing last yr to keep prices in check. Run out of #1 supply in march, then start buying heated stuff and blending it in, then get to the seeding season and start peppering the news with stories of a bumper crop to bridge the summer gap. They drew a lot of presellers in to the charade in early August dumping crop for $2 less than it is now.

The question I ask, is what will higher prices in the middle of winter accomplish? It won't increase supply in the Northern Hemisphere, harvest is long since over, any seeding intention changes won't have any effect until next September. As I understand, most southern Hemisphere canola is winter, so won't increase acres or inputs there. the only thing higher prices can do is motivate stubborn sellers to part with their crop. But lower prices have the same effect. When prices go up every day, it is easy to get complacent and keep waiting for better opportunities. A sharp correction seems to be more effective at scaring some bushels loose.

Can higher prices curb demand, is there any alternative anywhere right now?