Stats Canada Canola

[Guest]

BE NICE! Treat everyone like you would want to be treated . . . who says Stats Can is right anyway?

Bullshit
You have to ask him why he didn’t go for a drive or know that you can’t grow bumper canola with a hot dry spell like that
Or maybe listen to a farmer
You have to ask yourself why all these “experts” pushed this horseshit long after even the most out of touch people knew
I’m sick and tired of these games they are playing with our livelihoods just so some leach can bleed us a little more
Anyone that thought there was a bumper canola crop by the second week of august is sadly out of touch or has his own agenda
And no this stats can report is definitely not right as is obvious by the price being offered
You see the people that need to know , know exactly what there is , just us mushrooms are kept out of the loop
And stats can has a real problem with the bullshit report from last year , now they can’t use this “bumper” crop to make it work on paper two years down the road
And by the way , what’s wrong with asking a “self described expert” where he was coming from , him and a whole bunch more ????

[Rareearth]

And to be fair I’m a farmer, I had no idea ( greed - hope - fear - panic) what our yield was going to be.

When early yield reports (gossip, rumours) of the early seeded, outstanding germination, early crop development, that some what beat the heat/dryness I knew it wouldn’t be big. I considered our crops and area average this year. That’s 75 mph scouting, I recognize heat blast pale yellow, blank tops, etc plus no moisture to fill.

I think the big story could be the dryness going into the fields in late April, and there will be no carry over stocks, terminals will be shut down for maintenance July 1

I’m not a pessimist, try to focus on opportunities with realistic assessments.

[checking]

I sometimes wonder if terminals know any more than farmers, and all they really know is that they accept the lowest farmer targets that get their next train filled. I only say this because I would rather deal in cash prices, but that is always limited tonnes, at limited times.

I had a harvest B of canola with a disabled tractor. It wasn't important to get it going until after harvest conclusion. Fixed the problem in later September, and decided rather than find a bin for the load I'd try a terminal which was at around $11, and save the hassle. The response was, "oh no, we can't take it. We have lots of undelivered client contracts coming in this week to fill our next train".

Now its, thanks for the extra $4,000.00. I'll bin bin loads all day for that.

Again, do they know any more than us mushrooms that are all in the humus bed, other than the five second advantage the humus might have in getting the nutrients to the mushrooms.

[sumdumguy]

People who profess to be experts offer themselves up to be targets. They should get in the game, do the research, walk the walk or face the music. Farmers’ returns are damaged by these self-proclaimed prophets. I remember full well how we struggled and squirmed like wet mice to try to get the special crops industry going. Trouble is there are vested interests who control and we allow it, even pay them.

[bucket]

I sometimes wonder if terminals know any more than farmers, and all they really know is that they accept the lowest farmer targets that get their next train filled. I only say this because I would rather deal in cash prices, but that is always limited tonnes, at limited times.

I had a harvest B of canola with a disabled tractor. It wasn't important to get it going until after harvest conclusion. Fixed the problem in later September, and decided rather than find a bin for the load I'd try a terminal which was at around $11, and save the hassle. The response was, "oh no, we can't take it. We have lots of undelivered client contracts coming in this week to fill our next train".

Now its, thanks for the extra $4,000.00. I'll bin bin loads all day for that.

Again, do they know any more than us mushrooms that are all in the humus bed, other than the five second advantage the humus might have in getting the nutrients to the mushrooms.

IMHO ...if you cant deliver spot....the system isn't working to find price discovery...if they are a month behind in contracts then the system is backlogged and thats how they are controlling the price for their benefit...

[SASKFARMER]

Again I did a provincial tour and knew the crop wasn’t what they were saying.

Just one stupid farmer who knows crops that likes to see Saskatchewan. If you grow crops you can easily know the difference from a 60 plus to a 25. It’s not rocket science stop take a piss and look.

It wasn’t a bumper it was a 18.2 all along.

But the guy who guessed way wrong should of admitted he was a fool and maybe he would of got some credibility back. Sticking to his big crop was a crock of shit.

[bucket]

Some experts are just weatherman....pats on the back for the right call and excuses for the wrong one....


There will be BUT BUT BUT ...coming from Neil Townsend if media ever asks him why the shit call on production considering he toured the crops and had weather services to help as well...

[Rareearth]

Checking,
The process the terminals favor is :
- no unscheduled deliveries ( they assume every farmer has bin storage) at harvest if you have a larger than expected crop, put a target in at a big discount under the market for delivery in the monthly system. That’s the gravy the terminals usually get ( not you)
- basis is determined some what the the mix of supply and demand ( plus other factors) if the terminal has extra capacity(or the exporter) they will lower the basis and increase the net price to the farmer, and vice versa. BUT they strive to maintain a full delivery schedule or bookings and this tends to lower or stabilize price offerings from the exports if its a rising market ( if the market buyers aren’t buying then exporters lower the price offering to slow farmer selling down, lowballing for several month out deliveries (allows exporters to buy under the market and make sales) it’s easy to make sales when you have something to sell below market prices, try and sell at a premium you better have premium or expect big problems.

That is way shorter explanation than it should have been.

Basically target pricing favours exports and lowers grower returns.

[Hamloc]

BE NICE! Treat everyone like you would want to be treated . . . who says Stats Can is right anyway?

Here are two articles, both quoting Neil Townsend: producer.com/news/farmers-prepare-for-bumper-crop.
producer.com/news/canola-estimate-feels-the-heat.

In the first article he predicts bumper crops, in the second after it has become obvious canola yields are lower than expected he doubles down on his opinion of good yields. Read both and form your own opinion.

[farmaholic]

Checking,
The process the terminals favor is :
Basically target pricing favours exports and lowers grower returns.

Blackpowder told Mallee that he shouldn't read Agriville for how the Canadian grain market works.

There is no way to cap wheat prices! No ceilings. No grain pre-sold by GrainCos that might need to be filled under market prices..... can't-won't-hasn't ever happen.....impossible.

[Rareearth]

It’s just another example of how captive farmers are in the “new open market system” .

Price targets, are a type of market price fixing, collusion, etc no one would ever accept that terminology or methodology - explanation. Take it for what it really is. Interesting how specials show up when grain isn’t available to fill cars.

The system needs more price discovery and delivery alternatives, (infrastructure for processing of food, feed, fuel - smaller independent exporters etc) this would creat a competitive environment to benefit all tax payers and citizens.

[bucket]

Do you think if you are not in a claim position with crop insurance ...farmers report actual yields or do they increase them to help their individual farm yields...


What does it matter if your guarantee is 25bpa and you grow 35 but report 40?

The closer your boots are to the ground the better the knowledge....I have no understanding why farmers trust a guy like Townsend when farmers are in their fields to know better...

Why do farmers sell themselves short on the knowledge they have....and then give it away for free....


If Townsend showed up at the side of the road near any of my fields and wanted to walk them ...he would be told to phuck off quickly and buy his own farm for information....

[farmaholic]

Do you think if you are not in a claim position with crop insurance ...farmers report actual yields or do they increase them to help their individual farm yields...


What does it matter if your guarantee is 25bpa and you grow 35 but report 40?

Time for an Agristability forensic audit!

[bucket]

Time for an Agristability forensic audit!

Why???? You ever see a physical audit from agristabilty...most large farms that are extracting money from the program...have bin yards in different areas and so many companies the dummies at agristability just rely on the MNP masters for info anyway.

[Rareearth]

Wise guy that is true.

For effective markets, price increases or decreases should be steady upward or downward slopes (vs knee jerk limit up for a week or down).

- What were the foreword sales again, to where ? We don’t have to name the exporters, the information will be aggregated to protect their business interests. Wish we could protect ours. Under a sales reporting system total revenues might actually be higher for taxation needs of government.

- what % of the current crop for all grains has been sold?

- farmers really don’t have the full picture of “supply and demand”

Our farm is at significant risk, for price collapse ( is skippy doesn’t shut up with India politics, or now again Chinese wawae and the two Dave’s), or inability to participate in capture strong market pricing opportunities- using supply and demand analysis with fundamentals.

How many tons have been committed for sale ( export and domestic) ?