Stats Canada Canola

[SASKFARMER]

Again I did a provincial tour and knew the crop wasn’t what they were saying.

Just one stupid farmer who knows crops that likes to see Saskatchewan. If you grow crops you can easily know the difference from a 60 plus to a 25. It’s not rocket science stop take a piss and look.

It wasn’t a bumper it was a 18.2 all along.

But the guy who guessed way wrong should of admitted he was a fool and maybe he would of got some credibility back. Sticking to his big crop was a crock of shit.

[bucket]

Some experts are just weatherman....pats on the back for the right call and excuses for the wrong one....


There will be BUT BUT BUT ...coming from Neil Townsend if media ever asks him why the shit call on production considering he toured the crops and had weather services to help as well...

[Rareearth]

Checking,
The process the terminals favor is :
- no unscheduled deliveries ( they assume every farmer has bin storage) at harvest if you have a larger than expected crop, put a target in at a big discount under the market for delivery in the monthly system. That’s the gravy the terminals usually get ( not you)
- basis is determined some what the the mix of supply and demand ( plus other factors) if the terminal has extra capacity(or the exporter) they will lower the basis and increase the net price to the farmer, and vice versa. BUT they strive to maintain a full delivery schedule or bookings and this tends to lower or stabilize price offerings from the exports if its a rising market ( if the market buyers aren’t buying then exporters lower the price offering to slow farmer selling down, lowballing for several month out deliveries (allows exporters to buy under the market and make sales) it’s easy to make sales when you have something to sell below market prices, try and sell at a premium you better have premium or expect big problems.

That is way shorter explanation than it should have been.

Basically target pricing favours exports and lowers grower returns.

[Hamloc]

BE NICE! Treat everyone like you would want to be treated . . . who says Stats Can is right anyway?

Here are two articles, both quoting Neil Townsend: producer.com/news/farmers-prepare-for-bumper-crop.
producer.com/news/canola-estimate-feels-the-heat.

In the first article he predicts bumper crops, in the second after it has become obvious canola yields are lower than expected he doubles down on his opinion of good yields. Read both and form your own opinion.

[farmaholic]

Checking,
The process the terminals favor is :
Basically target pricing favours exports and lowers grower returns.

Blackpowder told Mallee that he shouldn't read Agriville for how the Canadian grain market works.

There is no way to cap wheat prices! No ceilings. No grain pre-sold by GrainCos that might need to be filled under market prices..... can't-won't-hasn't ever happen.....impossible.

[Rareearth]

It’s just another example of how captive farmers are in the “new open market system” .

Price targets, are a type of market price fixing, collusion, etc no one would ever accept that terminology or methodology - explanation. Take it for what it really is. Interesting how specials show up when grain isn’t available to fill cars.

The system needs more price discovery and delivery alternatives, (infrastructure for processing of food, feed, fuel - smaller independent exporters etc) this would creat a competitive environment to benefit all tax payers and citizens.

[bucket]

Do you think if you are not in a claim position with crop insurance ...farmers report actual yields or do they increase them to help their individual farm yields...


What does it matter if your guarantee is 25bpa and you grow 35 but report 40?

The closer your boots are to the ground the better the knowledge....I have no understanding why farmers trust a guy like Townsend when farmers are in their fields to know better...

Why do farmers sell themselves short on the knowledge they have....and then give it away for free....


If Townsend showed up at the side of the road near any of my fields and wanted to walk them ...he would be told to phuck off quickly and buy his own farm for information....

[farmaholic]

Do you think if you are not in a claim position with crop insurance ...farmers report actual yields or do they increase them to help their individual farm yields...


What does it matter if your guarantee is 25bpa and you grow 35 but report 40?

Time for an Agristability forensic audit!

[bucket]

Time for an Agristability forensic audit!

Why???? You ever see a physical audit from agristabilty...most large farms that are extracting money from the program...have bin yards in different areas and so many companies the dummies at agristability just rely on the MNP masters for info anyway.

[Rareearth]

Wise guy that is true.

For effective markets, price increases or decreases should be steady upward or downward slopes (vs knee jerk limit up for a week or down).

- What were the foreword sales again, to where ? We don’t have to name the exporters, the information will be aggregated to protect their business interests. Wish we could protect ours. Under a sales reporting system total revenues might actually be higher for taxation needs of government.

- what % of the current crop for all grains has been sold?

- farmers really don’t have the full picture of “supply and demand”

Our farm is at significant risk, for price collapse ( is skippy doesn’t shut up with India politics, or now again Chinese wawae and the two Dave’s), or inability to participate in capture strong market pricing opportunities- using supply and demand analysis with fundamentals.

How many tons have been committed for sale ( export and domestic) ?