Grain comments

[malleefarmer]

Wondering were or how a lift is gonna come short term.

Been a bit caught out here crops going well havent presold enough even two weeks ago.

Wheat barley canola pulses all fallen around $40 to 60 per tonne last 2 weeks.

I used to be guilty of something called backyarditis, have suffered from the ailment for say 6 years now, theres is alot of grain pulses canola in the world. And Australia.

North american drought and brazil russian dry etc my blinkered vision thought crops would trade sideways at ok levels i was WRONG.

All eyes on northern hemisphere weather come april may or may have to wait till your harvest.

Cant hope for a blackswan event.

The world is a big place and as a trader told me once there is grain being harvested 24/7 somewere in the world never forget that,supplies may wane but are always there just remember the 3Ds he said nothing more nothing less

[blackpowder]

Your basis must suck and I can only think thst must be the China thing.
Currently +$7 on canola here. Not sure how long gonna last though. Crushers will stand for futures delivery eventually. We'll be scraping the barrel by spring.
Wheat a totally different cat.
Basis can run from 0-$1.50 depending on mood at the time seems. Forex in wheat also.

[malleefarmer]

Had to empty a bin yesterday 18.8 t canola left went to elevator.

Got a paltry $588 on farm with oil bonuses.

Weeks ago that was $620plus. On farm.

[malleefarmer]

CBOT Mch wht down a$3.22/t. Market weighed down by big crops in Aust & Canada with no sign of excessive cold to damage EU or Black Sea crops at the moment. We could see exports from Pakistan & India to add to global trading supplies.

[shtferbrains]

Is a Black Swan when the market opens up the limit for 3??? Days in a row and goes to expanded limits and still opens up the limit and totaly out of anyones control???

[poorboy]

Harvest pressure

Most years the Canadian harvest pressure drops the price and then it recovers a little in November to drop again due to Australian harvest pressure and then starts to recover again in February.

At this point no reason to think this price drop is anything but the large Aussie crop getting sold and flooding the market.

[malleefarmer]

All that’s in the market news here huge Aussie crop wheat barley lentils canola beans peas chickpeas51 million tonne chuck in Canadian large wheat and barley plus Russia Black Sea crops not a lot of reason to surge ahead but did see wheat bounced off resistance

[Rareearth]

I wouldn’t panic yet Mallee
With what your describing, farmers forcing product into the market, your exporters are happy to buy it at a discount and offer a similar discount to their customers. YOU are not the exporters customer, the foreign buyers are the customer, the growers are suppliers.
Once the excessive selling pressures dissipate there might be relief? Then there is port congestion, cash flows etc as you mentioned earlier.
Harvest price pressure is normal here.

[malleefarmer]

I wouldn’t panic yet Mallee
With what your describing, farmers forcing product into the market, your exporters are happy to buy it at a discount and offer a similar discount to their customers. YOU are not the exporters customer, the foreign buyers are the customer, the growers are suppliers.
Once the excessive selling pressures dissipate there might be relief? Then there is port congestion, cash flows etc as you mentioned earlier.
Harvest price pressure is normal here.

Normally agree but I ain’t seen nothing like this in my whole career, chuck in covid strange marketing year.

Plus we getting hammered by Chinese.

Worldwide demand should be good covid worries etc but seems opposite is happening.

I kid you not friend of a friend etc etc they are harvesting 7.5t ha barley normal average 2.5 to 3.

In a late district just started zero buyers anywere.

We get zero help from govt we need cash flow, no insurance schemes or scams whatever it is. Sink or swim in oz. Banks won’t lend against a stored product diminishing in value.

Gut feel though we’re finding a level.

Heard again from a different source some buyers just can’t buy anymore until funds come in from sales which is not sure March feb.

Letters of credit aint what they used to be.

Most farmers got great foward sales in place but it’s the excess unsaleable at moment.

Low protien wheat today got 120 tonne away $256 on farm. Limited tonnes was rationed out 120 tonne per grower feed mill