Fall 2021 prices

[farmaholic]

You must live in the worst place on the prairies for rail service. Terminals here pounding it and industry wide shipping is record high.

Our local with new loop track is supposedly pounding through a train a week, sometimes two.

CP mainline.

[Old Cowzilla]

Currently have soil moisture for 10 bu canola. Should i lock that in a contract ? Looks kinda dry in the west half of North America.

[Rareearth]

I hope it rains in May

[farmaholic]

The company I contract my specialty canola with would sure like me to sign again for 2021.
The program is essentially "almost "the same as last year.
I'm not playing hard to get but we are in one of the driest areas of Western Canada. Scary, bloody scary.
There isn't even much snow here. Without some good spring rains and rain during our typical June monsoon...we might be in for a world of hurt here. No sense writing off new crop in December of the previous year but at the moment our position has us sucking the hind tit and having trouble finding it.

I think you guys have heard me talking about "net drying"..... well there is very little moisture in the ground to dry out.
I have said that we might be best off leaving canola and flax, or any other shallow seeded crop, out of the rotation and seed only wheats and pulses.

Canola seed costs are ridiculous under these conditions, I'm carrying the risk of very poor establishment or very poor yeilds on an expensive crop to grow..... ACT OF GOD clause or not. I'm the one spending the Spondooli!!!!

The older I get the more risk averse I become

[blackpowder]

I've sold a little wheat for next fall.
Waiting on the canola and a little more wheat. Today I'm not comfortable selling more than a drought yield.

[farmaholic]

I've sold a little wheat for next fall.
Waiting on the canola and a little more wheat. Today I'm not comfortable selling more than a drought yield.

Care to reveal your fall wheat sell price?
Seems we are always lagging western Alberta wheat prices, you guys are that much closer to the feedlot market and those damn Rockies.

I saw 1 CWRS 13.5 $7.25 specials for nearby deliveries for western Prairie delivery points(the big V).

[GDR]

I've sold a little wheat for next fall.
Waiting on the canola and a little more wheat. Today I'm not comfortable selling more than a drought yield.

Haven't heard much for wheat prices, if barley is $5 should be able to find a $6 feed wheat price maybe? Or at $5 barley guarantee maybe wheat isnt worth the risk?

[sumdumguy]

GDR, what’s a drought yield? 1/2 crop, 2/3 crop?

[GDR]

GDR, what’s a drought yield? 1/2 crop, 2/3 crop?

Maybe that's a good question, what sort of swings have guys seen from one extreme to the next? I've seen patchy germination, I've seen hilltops burn off but never seen corner to corner drought.
I honestly guess I dont know in our area. We have had a couple really dry years that have been pretty pathetic on the grass/ hay maybe 40% of normal yields or less, but grain yields still pretty respectable, with better quality. I realize I'm in a fairly forgiving area, more often too wet than too dry. Our biggest risk is hail, in 2009 lost every acre 100% spread out 15 miles.

[ry0972]

Drought yields will vary dramatically for a number of reasons.
But a true drought year (1988) usually means single digit yields in cereal and oilseed crops.
In my 22 crop years I have seen 3 years with yield of 0 to 10 bpa.
And a couple other years that the yield was 10 to 20 but the crop was so short that flexheaders were used in cereals to try and get as many of the heads as possible.
Newer headers and land rollers would reduce grain loss and equipment damage in those situations.
But a 4 to 6" high, 15bpa cereal stand that gets rain or snow at harvest ends up single digits as well.

[Guest]

I've sold a little wheat for next fall.
Waiting on the canola and a little more wheat. Today I'm not comfortable selling more than a drought yield.

Lol, still have wheat from17,18,19 &20
Wheat is my biggest **** up

[blackpowder]

I did a drop of CPS back in Oct for $7.70 with no basis locked.
So, hopefully no more than a $.40 🤞
East Central AB.
I would like to see more snow and a closer spring before i do more. Of course $8 would change my mind. Wouldn't want to do much more than 20bpa until i see mud in April. Like to be 50+ bpa sold by June/July.
Our sub moisture tank on E here too.

If i sell any paper its always conservative amounts and strategies.