Fall 2021 prices

[GDR]

Off combine prices for barley at $5, and canola $11.50 sure sounding pretty good but I'm usually a big chicken to price this far out. What is everyone else thinking?

Have we set a new price level where those numbers will now seem low? Or with average yields will new crop hit the skid?

If the grain companies are aggressively buying this early does their forecast tell them something we dont know?

Covid has helped pricing, if the vaccine rollout helps will the built up stocks some countries have carry them over longer, or will they have no money left to bid on grains?

Exchange rate getting worse.

Inflation concerns?

Lots to consider.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

History would suggest that this is only a short term cyclical bull market within a long term secular bear market in ag commodities. A lot of stars have to align to have such a deep cut in production worldwide again next year.

[tubs]

No easy answers. Lots of grain moving out today wondering how much will be left in may to july. I think the most diffficult part is where our dollar is going to go to or Usd .What about inflation with all the money printing. What I am doing now is sell grain now and buy inputs now to take some of that risk away. How bad has the flooding in China effected their crop production. What about all these make believe stocks of grain in China and elsewhere.

[errolanderson]

Off combine prices for barley at $5, and canola $11.50 sure sounding pretty good but I'm usually a big chicken to price this far out. What is everyone else thinking?

Have we set a new price level where those numbers will now seem low? Or with average yields will new crop hit the skid?

If the grain companies are aggressively buying this early does their forecast tell them something we dont know?

Covid has helped pricing, if the vaccine rollout helps will the built up stocks some countries have carry them over longer, or will they have no money left to bid on grains?

Exchange rate getting worse.

Inflation concerns?

Lots to consider.

These are barley boats already booked for China movement next fall . . . .

[malleefarmer]

These are barley boats already booked for China movement next fall . . . .

At our expense.........

Hey GDR why not sell 20% of your expected production. If it’s the worst price you get in 21 so be it, historically still a good price for you guys?

Question not a statement.

If the world has a big year next year prices will tank.

If there are production issues prices may rise a little but not runaway on the topside.

Myself waiting for oil to move north and commodity’s to follow was hoping for $65 plus oil and grain to follow not happening yet

Covid rules the roost on everything at moment

[GDR]

At our expense.........

Hey GDR why not sell 20% of your expected production. If it’s the worst price you get in 21 so be it, historically still a good price for you guys?

Question not a statement.

If the world has a big year next year prices will tank.

If there are production issues prices may rise a little but not runaway on the topside.

Myself waiting for oil to move north and commodity’s to follow was hoping for $65 plus oil and grain to follow not happening yet

Covid rules the roost on everything at moment

Agreed for sure and that's something I likely will do. Just a mental block to get around. Have only pre sold grain 3 times and everytime I wished I hadn't.

[bucket]

These are barley boats already booked for China movement next fall . . . .

They booked the boats but they can't book the train to get the barley to the west coast????????

[shtferbrains]

As Mallee says, I wonder if grain will get dragged along in a commodity boom if China is making a play to have more world influence.
I see lumber is gapping higher again.
Can anyone comment on commodities overall?

[TASFarms]

We really need sales reporting in this country. Futures drop and companies are still paying well above futures for grain.

[tmyrfield]

This is from US wheat associates.

Imagine if Canadian wheat sales needed to be reported wouldn't it be nice to see who is buuying our wheat in real time for what price.

China will get what they want for the price they want.

I am sorry if some on here feel offended by posts showing how the chinese manipulate the world.

Given that the 2 Michaels have been indicted in china and that our illustrious leader invited the chinese army for cold climate training against the advice of the armed forces, I think china is fair game.

[blackpowder]

They booked the boats but they can't book the train to get the barley to the west coast????????

You must live in the worst place on the prairies for rail service. Terminals here pounding it and industry wide shipping is record high.

[bucket]

You must live in the worst place on the prairies for rail service. Terminals here pounding it and industry wide shipping is record high.

Ask the local manager if they have the trains or cars booked for September other than to say they might have the allotment ...maybe...

I understand grain is moving although the closest point seems to miss their trains too often with a 134 car spot....but it is a known fact elevators can not order their cars as they sign contracts...so if the graincos are ordering vessels for the west coast wouldn't it make sense to order the cars to move grain to the west coast as those contracts are signed with producers????

[farmaholic]

You must live in the worst place on the prairies for rail service. Terminals here pounding it and industry wide shipping is record high.

Our local with new loop track is supposedly pounding through a train a week, sometimes two.

CP mainline.

[Old Cowzilla]

Currently have soil moisture for 10 bu canola. Should i lock that in a contract ? Looks kinda dry in the west half of North America.

[Rareearth]

I hope it rains in May