Markets Party Like the 1920's with an Economy of the 1930's

[LEP]

That’s exactly what I’m seeing GDR. Who with a working brain takes a stimulus cheque and blows it on a TV instead of saving it for more important things. Like food or clothing. People are dumb and u can’t fix that til things get so bad that they are shocked into what’s important. Our grandparents lived it so they know. Since the last World War all most all of us have not known hardships like they faced. In my opinion all the gains we have made in humanity have been ruined by those in charge of our economics and finances. I blame it on the baby boomers who set up the current system only to change the rules as they went along to suit their financial gains. Essentially they are/have ruined our society for their retirement party. Pisses me off when my mother complains that she has to pay tax on her retirement plans. They expect everything for nothing sometimes. That’s why we are where we are. What has it taught us? Keep changing the rules til we are backed into the corner we are in now.

Don't blame the baby boomers. I doubt there are any or many in Trudeau's cabinet old enough to be boomers. He has double the debt in less than 12 months.

[biglentil]

for answers to these questions, check out Kirian Van Hest on you tube regarding the Canadian dollar and upcoming inflation. Farmers should be in good shape to weather the upcoming storm as our commodities are going to rise significantly. buy even a little bitcoin, buy some gold or silver, book fuel now, and don't sign any deferred contracts. we'll check back on these predictions this summer.

Yes that is Kirian Van Hest's chart and he explains himself well in this video: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7o8JfFbvfD8 . He's an interesting fellow from Israel that has 'gamified' economics to arrive at the end game using a combination of economic history, Austrian economic theory and simulations in MMO games(Massively Multiplayer Online games). Some of the mmo's have developed complex economies with auctions and virtual property with real world value. Hyperinflation happens often in the mmo games with time and an increase in player base. Game developers much like central banks struggle to keep the monetary system stable and sound. Btw he is not a fan of Bitcoin canolacrazy and neither am I. I think the take away from his chart is Canada is the only nation to have a worsening 5yr CDS (credit default swaps) in the past 6months, essentially CDS is insurance against Canada defaulting within the next 5 years. Canada also has the greatest increase in M1 money supply of any nation on the list. But I think the biggest kicker is Canada holds no gold in the central bank and is the only nation without. Gold is the anchor of the monetary system and provides confidence in a country's ability to service debt. However, the prediction needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The timing of such an event is nearly impossible to predict as hyperinflation is always the result of a loss in confidence in the purchasing power of the currency and confidence is purely psychological. Though I believe it to be inevitable I'm not about to suggest it's weeks or months away. We all know the market can stay irrational longer than most can stay solvent.

[helmsdale]

https://youtu.be/3N_Lgzn1v2A

Northman Trading. It's an hour and 20 min long.

Favorite quote:"listening to Janet Yellen, is like chlorophorm in audio format".

[canolacrazy]

Very well said Biglentil. Yes, markets can stay irrational for a long time, especially when central banks are printing money at these rates. However, this site is for exchanging ideas and trying to think through options for commodity marketing, whether that be in the farming business, or other commodities like oil and mining. We're all trying to make a buck or two and i value other opinions as well as try to share a few of my own.
As far as bitcoin goes, it may be a long term loser, i originally thought the same thing. However there is a limited supply of the product, as far as i can see no one has control over it. it is a true market based product, not one even central banks can manipulate. i think it is worth putting a few bucks in and see what happens. So far my returns in bitcoin and oil have been very good in a short period of time. If they tank, then I'll suffer the consequences, the way any market should treat me. If Van Hest is correct, these commodities will benefit because they have world wide stable value at a time when currencies are eroding.

[Guest]

Don't blame the baby boomers. I doubt there are any or many in Trudeau's cabinet old enough to be boomers. He has double the debt in less than 12 months.

and most of us never voted for that outfit

[biglentil]

Very well said Biglentil. Yes, markets can esr stay irrational for a long time, especially when central banks are printing money at these rates. However, this site is for exchanging ideas and trying to think through options for commodity marketing, whether that be in the farming business, or other commodities like oil and mining. We're all trying to make a buck or two and i value other opinions as well as try to share a few of my own.
As far as bitcoin goes, it may be a long term loser, i originally thought the same thing. However there is a limited supply of the product, as far as i can see no one has control over it. it is a true market based product, not one even central banks can manipulate. i to think it is worth putting a few bucks in and see what happens. So far my returns in bitcoin and oil have been very good in a short period of time. If they tank, then I'll suffer the consequences, the way any market should treat me. If Van Hest is correct, these commodities will benefit because they have world wide stable value at a time when currencies are eroding.

I like the technology of blockchain and it's decentralized nature. However, the sudden institutional demand by large banks is suspicious. For example the world's largest bank JPM is calling for $600k bitcoin. These are the same guys recently fined $900m for manipulating pm's. Now they are promoting a store of value that is supposedly 'digital gold', decentralized and out of their's and government control? Doesn't make any sense. Why would they promote their competition unless they are planning a massive short attack through the derivatives market. Maybe they know that strict crypto regulations are coming down the pipe. JPM never makes a losing trade.

I'm sorry but governments and central banks are not going to allow competing currencies to compete against their counterfeiting racket. Digital transactions alway leave a trail that can be tracked, miners are energy intensive, quantum computers may already be able to defeat the algorithm, bitcoin has road mapped CBDC... I could go on buy hard assets.

[Rareearth]

Markets tend to go where no one thinks its possible or reasonable.

Why bit coin? It will happen for sure, but it’s a bigger bust than dot com ever was ( Mr Buffet doesn’t like intangibles, all investors are looking at return on investment - again with no tangibles, patience grasshoppers)

How and why has Japan managed to survive?

Skippy doesn’t know how to devalue Canadian dollar, or why he should ( this would happen if Bank of Canada lowered interest rates , good for every one except importers , and would actually lower Govt deficit)

[errolanderson]

Stock markets and bitcoin are in a massive bubble. When this bubble implodes, commodity prices will be impacted. Consumers simply cannot tolerate inflation.

Any inflation will quickly revert to deflation in many sectors (IMO). But, the food sector may be least impacted due to Covid-related disruptions and need for fresh South American supplies feeding China.

Rates cannot go up. Economics are too strained. Derivatives (the elephant) and the squeeze in credit liquidity may be the ignition for a sharp setback . . . just like 2008 (IMO).

What we are witnessing now is; for the history books.

[shtferbrains]

Lumber prices are up 2x to 3x YOY.
Does that cause inflation or is it like the unemployment rate where 47% of employable adults were collecting CERB amd that works out to 13% unemployment?

[shtferbrains]

225B in G of C bonds is sitting on the inflated B of C balance sheet
Yellow line is bonds. Pink line is Payments Canada liabilities

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Who are the buyers that wanted all those Canadian bonds?